WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Where's the march 93 redux JB promised? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Probably the same place as the other 61 march 93 reduxes, 49 jan 96 reduxes, 18 knickerbocker storm reduxes and 9 washington and jefferson storm reduxes he's forecasted over the years went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Dammit, I am holding him to one of those at some point. Like Ji, I am big-game hunting at this point. We need to go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The good news is the eruo op is much different than the gfs and keeps the pna ridge alive through d10. Bad news is that's it's completely void of anything interesting to track. It does dig a vort down the intermountain west and stalls it in Mexico. I suppose we can call that vort the 61 redux vort that appears useless at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Dammit, I am holding him to one of those at some point. Like Ji, I am big-game hunting at this point. We need to go big. Worst winter since last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It would be nice if we could get a dry period some time this winter. Tired of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Pretty decent -nao at the end of the euro too. Not optimal but decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Dammit, I am holding him to one of those at some point. Like Ji, I am big-game hunting at this point. We need to go big. Worst winter since last winter Anyone can hunt a torch around here, the skill is in hunting unicorns and snipe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The good news is the eruo op is much different than the gfs and keeps the pna ridge alive through d10. Bad news is that's it's completely void of anything interesting to track. It does dig a vort down the intermountain west and stalls it in Mexico. I suppose we can call that vort the 61 redux vort that appears useless at this time. Euro bias at holding energy out west! There's our 1961 redux storm! Have that angry new guy who hates you start a thread! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro Bias ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro Bias ftw if you run the loop the euro retrogrades the vort underneath the pna ridge and it doesn't looks weird. It's the one man....boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro bias at holding energy out west! There's our 1961 redux storm! Have that angry new guy who hates you start a thread! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That might just stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro ensembles look way different than the gfs. Decent trough axis and not flattening the ridge. GFS way out on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 any storms on the Euro Ensembles? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 any storms on the Euro Ensembles? Rossi I don't have access to individual member solutions. Only the means of 51 members. What I'm seeing definitely implies the door isn't shut for storms. I get individual member output of precip out to 10 days but I won't see them until 5:45 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I don't have access to individual member solutions. Only the means of 51 members. What I'm seeing definitely implies the door isn't shut for storms. I get individual member output of precip out to 10 days but I won't see them until 5:45 or so. Are you using wxbell for the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Are you using wxbell for the ensembles? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Yep Yeah, I have it too. It's taken me a long time to get used to everything on their site. Not the easiest site to navigate for a novice like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Yeah, I have it too. It's taken me a long time to get used to everything on their site. Not the easiest site to navigate for a novice like me. I hated the site nav at first but have gotten really used to it. I don't like the way sections of data are divided with the same run. This is the link to the euro ens member graph. It's a great tool for piecing together the mean panels and getting a better feel for what the possibilities are. Especially with the precip/snow graphs: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I can't believe how different the gefs and euro are right now. Euro is door to door +pna for the last 6 days of the run. It looks like a relaxation around tues or so but then reamplifies through the end of the run. Trough axis looks really good for not having a block. It's still a flawed pattern but the longer it holds the more chances we'll get. I'm pretty sure NYC and north are stoked with this run. It's really weird seeing the gfs and euro move in opposite directions. They were already apart before today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I hated the site nav at first but have gotten really used to it. I don't like the way sections of data are divided with the same run. This is the link to the euro ens member graph. It's a great tool for piecing together the mean panels and getting a better feel for what the possibilities are. Especially with the precip/snow graphs: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php Thanks. I do plan on keeping the site. I wish they had the text output for the Euro like Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 this is a great free site that has all the models and their ensembles I have the link below to the Euro ensembles but you can change it in the menu at the top, right also, bottom left are the different choices like slp, 850 temps, 500mb geo/potential hts, etc. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Light precip on the ensemble mean over the east coast on mlk weekend with a heavier axis offshore. Good indication that some members are showing a storm. #keepinghopealive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Light precip on the ensemble mean over the east coast on mlk weekend with a heavier axis offshore. Good indication that some members are showing a storm. #keepinghopealive if we dont get the MLK event...there is going to be a trolling spree like we have never seen on this board. Also, I think Euro is too inland with the Jan 14 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 if we dont get the MLK event...there is going to be a trolling spree like we have never seen on this board. Also, I think Euro is too inland with the Jan 14 event. I remember Randy's MLK Storm crusade back in 2010...I was posting pics of the "USS Tracker" sinking. I think you cancelled winter after that storm didn't happen. But then the real deal happened 2 weeks later...and lasted for like 12 days. Like 5 feet of snow worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I remember Randy's MLK Storm crusade back in 2010...I was posting pics of the "USS Tracker" sinking. I think you cancelled winter after that storm didn't happen. But then the real deal happened 2 weeks later...and lasted for like 12 days. Like 5 feet of snow worth. You think that might happen again if we miss the MLK storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I remember Randy's MLK Storm crusade back in 2010...I was posting pics of the "USS Tracker" sinking. I think you cancelled winter after that storm didn't happen. But then the real deal happened 2 weeks later...and lasted for like 12 days. Like 5 feet of snow worth. we suck on MLK weekend. I dont ever remember getting a storm on that weekend for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I remember Randy's MLK Storm crusade back in 2010...I was posting pics of the "USS Tracker" sinking. I think you cancelled winter after that storm didn't happen. But then the real deal happened 2 weeks later...and lasted for like 12 days. Like 5 feet of snow worth. Lmfao, you have a great memory. Ji was ranting and raving, maybe if he copies that we get 5 feet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I can't believe how different the gefs and euro are right now. Euro is door to door +pna for the last 6 days of the run. It looks like a relaxation around tues or so but then reamplifies through the end of the run. Trough axis looks really good for not having a block. It's still a flawed pattern but the longer it holds the more chances we'll get. I'm pretty sure NYC and north are stoked with this run. It's really weird seeing the gfs and euro move in opposite directions. They were already apart before today. I'm writing outlook article tomorrow. I was hoping they'd get closer together. I'm gonna be accused of being wishy washy. People will forget I was very bullish on the cold and somewhat bullish about the snow chances during Jan 1-7 and was fairly confident of a warm to follow. Right now I'm I have no confidence though I still think there is a window around MLK weekend. Two things I don't like about the euro ens mean is it keeps showing below normal pressures across the region day after day on the means and the stinking high heights near and just south of nova scotia. Not sure what I'll write tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 we suck on MLK weekend. I dont ever remember getting a storm on that weekend for whatever reason I think it was MLK weekend in 94 when we got about 3-6 " of snow followed by rain. Then the arctic front cane through leading to record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I don't see any protracted warm up and even if so the models have in the past show a tndency to move from one regime to the other. yes, another storm will pass to our west, mild us for for 2/3 days, and then return cold and repeat pattern. I will be shocked if Jan ends up a + valued month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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