January Pattern Discussion

[clueless]

It's interesting you say that. It appears to me that many members on this forum will base their opinions of future weather events off of current model guidance that is 200hr+....

 

Over the past 24hrs (4 GFS runs) I've read discussions in this thread about:

 

Torching

Snowing

Cold

Warmth

Storm

No Storm

It's like a Ponzi Scheme of old money paying off new money... Some people on this forum alter their opinion every 6 hours based off of singular model runs 10+ days out. Those same people cleverly disguise their constantly changing opinions by talking about different contributing factors that could make up a weather pattern. This gives off the impression they are basing their opinions on patterns, recent bias, and skill. When in reality they aren't applying any discernible method(s) of  weather prediction at all; they are simply just reading each and every model run verbatim and regurgitating it in a post.

 

 

Interesting...

This belongs in the banter thread. And, apparently, you haven't really been following the discussion. Please do your regurgitation there.

[Bob Chill]

This belongs in the banter thread. And, apparently, you haven't really been following the discussion. Please do your regurgitation there.

 

you said it better than me

[Amped]

00Z gfs long range is a PAC jet torch. At least the SE ridge is gone and there's a hint of a southern jet.

[infekshus]

It's interesting you say that. It appears to me that many members on this forum will base their opinions of future weather events off of current model guidance that is 200hr+....

Over the past 24hrs (4 GFS runs) I've read discussions in this thread about:

Torching

Snowing

Cold

Warmth

Storm

No Storm

It's like a Ponzi Scheme of old money paying off new money... Some people on this forum alter their opinion every 6 hours based off of singular model runs 10+ days out. Those same people cleverly disguise their constantly changing opinions by talking about different contributing factors that could make up a weather pattern. This gives off the impression they are basing their opinions on patterns, recent bias, and skill. When in reality they aren't applying any discernible method(s) of weather prediction at all; they are simply just reading each and every model run verbatim and regurgitating it in a post.

Interesting...

JB2?

[Heisy]

Low forming just north of FLA Panhandle, ugh, one time!

 

[wxw]

Jb calling for potential eastern superstorm 1993 style in about 10 days

I'm on board after looking at 00z euro.  Too early to start a thread Ji?

[Ji]

Jb calling for potential eastern superstorm 1993 style in about 10 days

I'm on board after looking at 00z euro. Too early to start a thread Ji?

Ya man . The 10 day 00z euro looks interesting to say the least

[winterymix]

This looks like the 18th but the uncertainty increases in the next couple of panels after.

Amplification is much less in the same time frame as the EURO posted above.  Much,

much less amplified.  I think all we can say at this point is that there is an increased signal

for Jan 18-20 with weak support between EURO deterministic and GFS ensemble spaghetti plot.

The spaghetti does show a slight bit of split flow.

 

[mitchnick]

Jb calling for potential eastern superstorm 1993 style in about 10 days

JB sometimes gets confused over what some model(s) may depict in the future and what actually occurs

[WinterWxLuvr]

This looks like the 18th but the uncertainty increases in the next couple of panels after.

Amplification is much less in the same time frame as the EURO posted above.  Much,

much less amplified.  I think all we can say at this point is that there is an increased signal

for Jan 18-20 with weak support between EURO deterministic and GFS ensemble spaghetti plot.

The spaghetti does show a slight bit of split flow.

 

gefs-spag_namer_216_500_510_552_ht.gif

Not seeing a split flow there.  But, maybe I don't know what to look for.  To me that looks like clippers to the north of us, a gulf that is closed for business, and storms blowing up well to our east.  Just my take on it.  That trough axis is way too far east for me.

[Ji]

Euro has a coastal threat as early as Jan 14th

[mitchnick]

Euro has a rainy coastal threat as early as Jan 14th

fixed

[Ji]

fixed

its on the edge in leesburg of snow. Thats all i care about remember?

[mitchnick]

its on the edge in leesburg of snow. Thats all i care about remember?

look again

850-0 line isn't that close but the surface is upper 30's

[Bob Chill]

The longwave pattern has been interesting the last 6 weeks. First cold shot in December was most prominent in the far West. The next one was hit the middle of the country. Upcoming one focuses on the east. Won't be a nasty cold shot but sill focuses on the east.

We're kinda lucky because we get all 3 here. Plains and West are going to be pretty warm coming up..So far we have scored snow in both of the previous favorable patterns. Next one is mostly unresolved but there are signs of potential for sure.

It would be a safe call saying we have another warm spell in the last week of the month. Where we go from there is far from resolved. Bullish chatter for Feb going on right now but it's really a tough call. We'll have more chances. That's my only thought.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The longwave pattern has been interesting the last 6 weeks. First cold shot in December was most prominent in the far West. The next one was hit the middle of the country. Upcoming one focuses on the east. Won't be a nasty cold shot but sill focuses on the east.

We're kinda lucky because we get all 3 here. Plains and West are going to be pretty warm coming up..So far we have scored snow in both of the previous favorable patterns. Next one is mostly unresolved but there are signs of potential for sure.

It would be a safe call saying we have another warm spell in the last week of the month. Where we go from there is far from resolved. Bullish chatter for Feb going on right now but it's really a tough call. We'll have more chances. That's my only thought.

 

I think anything 2+ weeks in the future is an educated guess at best.

 

The second bolded I agree with completely.

 

PS- I'm not sure I'm excited reading "cold shot focused on the east".  That screams of cold and partly cloudy to me.

[CAPE]

The longwave pattern has been interesting the last 6 weeks. First cold shot in December was most prominent in the far West. The next one was hit the middle of the country. Upcoming one focuses on the east. Won't be a nasty cold shot but sill focuses on the east.

We're kinda lucky because we get all 3 here. Plains and West are going to be pretty warm coming up..So far we have scored snow in both of the previous favorable patterns. Next one is mostly unresolved but there are signs of potential for sure.

It would be a safe call saying we have another warm spell in the last week of the month. Where we go from there is far from resolved. Bullish chatter for Feb going on right now but it's really a tough call. We'll have more chances. That's my only thought.

Yeah if GEFS is to be believed, next window of opportunity is fairly brief...probably 16th to 19th? Then PNA ridge weakens/breaks down. 6z GFS op looks pretty awful, fwiw.

[PivotPoint]

 

This belongs in the banter thread. And, apparently, you haven't really been following the discussion. Please do your regurgitation there.            

I don't consider my comment banter. Just an opinion place amidst a number of other opinions. Taking "regurgitation" from my word pool was funny.... it would have been funnier if my post was in fact a regurgitation of something previously said or seen, which it wasn't, but still a good try!

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't consider my comment banter. Just an opinion place amidst a number of other opinions. Taking "regurgitation" from my word pool was funny.... it would have been funnier if my post was in fact a regurgitation of something previously said or seen, which it wasn't, but still a good try!

Just a piece of friendly advice......you're new here.  Establish your presence here with posts other than opinions for a while.  Your post came across in a pretty negative light.  That's probably because nobody "knows" you yet.

 

I agree with some of what you say.  Long range discussion always has pattern or indices splashed all over it.  I've said basically the same thing you did.  Those are modeled patterns, modeled indices, and modeled means.  Sometimes they do a good job of getting the "picture" right.  Other times, they miss by a long ways.  That's why the pattern can look good on Monday, and terrible on Thursday.  However, these same people that you pointed out that seemingly hug each model run, either op or ensemble, have the skill to be able to recognize legit features and to discard bogus solutions.  I don't have that ability.  So, I come here to read their thoughts.  I think your post, while containing some validity, came across as dismissive of their abilities.  You may not have intended it that way, but, like I said, nobody here "knows" you yet.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[CAPE]

Just a piece of friendly advice......you're new here.  Establish your presence here with posts other than opinions for a while.  Your post came across in a pretty negative light.  That's probably because nobody "knows" you yet.

 

I agree with some of what you say.  Long range discussion always has pattern or indices splashed all over it.  I've said basically the same thing you did.  Those are modeled patterns, modeled indices, and modeled means.  Sometimes they do a good job of getting the "picture" right.  Other times, they miss by a long ways.  That's why the pattern can look good on Monday, and terrible on Thursday.  However, these same people that you pointed out that seemingly hug each model run, either op or ensemble, have the skill to be able to recognize legit features and to discard bogus solutions.  I don't have that ability.  So, I come here to read their thoughts.  I think your post, while containing some validity, came across as dismissive of their abilities.  You may not have intended it that way, but, like I said, nobody here "knows" you yet.

 

Just my 2 cents.

Excellent post. Agreed.

[HighStakes]

Yeah if GEFS is to be believed, next window of opportunity is fairly brief...probably 16th to 19th? Then PNA ridge weakens/breaks down. 6z GFS op looks pretty awful, fwiw.

That window might be extended until the 22nd/23rd. Every other time we came out of warm up we managed to stay cold about 10 days or so. By sun/mon we should have a good idea how long our window will be.

[North Balti Zen]

System on 14th is rain but becomes 50/50 low for MLK weekend KU.

 

Lock it up.

[CAPE]

That window might be extended until the 22nd/23rd. Every other time we came out of warm up we managed to stay cold about 10 days or so. By sun/mon we should have a good idea how long our window will be.

Yes generally that is true. My post was based only on the GFS and its ensembles, verbatim. The Euro is more bullish on the cold and the pattern being favorable longer.

[usedtobe]

Yeah if GEFS is to be believed, next window of opportunity is fairly brief...probably 16th to 19th? Then PNA ridge weakens/breaks down. 6z GFS op looks pretty awful, fwiw.

It's hard to have much confidence in anything much past the 17-19 window.  The GEFS superensemble is pretty normal lookingn temp wise but looks like it would support a big warm up beyond the the end of the 5 day window centered on the 20th.   The Euro ens mean looks colder and looks like the cooler than normal temps would linger. 

[Bob Chill]

Sneaky vort on the 15th. Surface sucks but snow would fly mostly south and east. It's one of those scenarios I described in a previous post. UL energy passing south and weak suface reflection forming east of the br. This is hardly a period of interest. Just pointing it out.

[Bob Chill]

It's hard to have much confidence in anything much past the 17-19 window. The GEFS superensemble is pretty normal lookingn temp wise but looks like it would support a big warm up beyond the the end of the 5 day window centered on the 20th. The Euro ens mean looks colder and looks like the cooler than normal temps would linger.

I think the gefs is probably rushing it. Looking at the members there are plenty that keep the pna ridge in place. When it does break down there is really only one way to go with temps. It's quite a variable winter we're having.

On a side note...some euro members are picking up on the d10 threat. We'll see if that signal gets stronger. We'll have plenty of boring weather to work through so it's the only thing wintry to really follow at this point.

[usedtobe]

Sneaky vort on the 15th. Surface sucks but snow would fly mostly south and east. It's one of those scenarios I described in a previous post. UL energy passing south and weak suface reflection forming east of the br. This is hardly a period of interest. Just pointing it out.

Trouble with the event is the low pressure up towards the lakes is likely to mess us surface temps.  Not a pattern I like even with the vort going to our south.  COuld be a rain to snow scenario if everything went right. I'm still interested in the period beyond day 10.  Glad I don't write anything until tomorrow. Gives the models more time to try to come together. 

[Bob Chill]

Trouble with the event is the low pressure up towards the lakes is likely to mess us surface temps. Not a pattern I like even with the vort going to our south. COuld be a rain to snow scenario if everything went right. I'm still interested in the period beyond day 10. Glad I don't write anything until tomorrow. Gives the models more time to try to come together.

It's a no go with a lakes low for sure. Just pointing out what can happen with a ns dominated pattern and rising pna ridge. We have some serious work to do before anything real sets up.

The d10+ stuff is going to be total model spray for a while for sure. IMO- we get 1 or 2 chances tops before things switch up again. Euro ensembles made a move towards the gefs last night. Not a big move but a noticeable shift in de-amplifying toward the end of the run. It's inevitable but hopefully it holds long enough to let us have some fun.

12z gfs op will make no friends today.

[CAPE]

It's a no go with a lakes low for sure. Just pointing out what can happen with a ns dominated pattern and rising pna ridge. We have some serious work to do before anything real sets up.

The d10+ stuff is going to be total model spray for a while for sure. IMO- we get 1 or 2 chances tops before things switch up again. Euro ensembles made a move towards the gefs last night. Not a big move but a noticeable shift in de-amplifying toward the end of the run. It's inevitable but hopefully it holds long enough to let us have some fun.

12z gfs op will make no friends today.

Looks okay...hints of a couple chances. I don't really care what the op shows too far beyond truncation...I look as far as about 240 hrs and thats it. Beyond that is little more than a wag.

[North Balti Zen]

Where's the march 93 redux JB promised?

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