84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 we just need snow. 6-12 inch event or bust. I think we are all tired of the 2-4 events We are? I just got my first 2 inch event in 3 years. I will gladly take another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 we just need snow. 6-12 inch event or bust. I think we are all tired of the 2-4 events It's posts like this that supports making a sub-subforum. Euro ens look pretty good. Much better than the gefs. Same idea from d10-15. Ridge west / trough east and pv centered east of hudson and south of baffin. Hard to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's posts like this that supports making a sub-subforum. Euro ens look pretty good. Much better than the gefs. Same idea from d10-15. Ridge west / trough east and pv centered east of hudson and south of baffin. Hard to complain. don't worry, he'll find a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Mongolian high pressure showing up, that preceeded the vortex arrival by about 7 days. I said earlier that we will not be able to prevent periodic lows to our west and thus some near 60's, But the return behind that will accumulate more negative valeus than the preceeding positive one and I think that continues until about 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 we just need snow. 6-12 inch event or bust. I think we are all tired of the 2-4 events Actually we are tired of you after all these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Actually we are tired of you after all these years. More than tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's posts like this that supports making a sub-subforum. Euro ens look pretty good. Much better than the gefs. Same idea from d10-15. Ridge west / trough east and pv centered east of hudson and south of baffin. Hard to complain. Can it just be a Leesburg forum? Out here, we are more than happy with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 More than tired. The block button is useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Not to be a downer, just a realist....I am not too jazzed about the mid range pattern...Even with a +PNA which is looking more and more likely...I think the mostly likely scenario is a transient cold shot and we would have to thread the needle or time something to get anything more than a T-1" for DC metro...of course for HGR and MRB and Westminster the rules are different so can't comment as to there... As Wes has mentioned recently, there is no 50-50...lower heights will be to the west of where we want them and storms will cut to our west and possibly re-develop.....and with an unfavorable EPO we will get warm again....I really dont see much to be too excited about for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond....hopefully I will be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Not to be a downer, just a realist....I am not too jazzed about the mid range pattern...Even with a +PNA which is looking more and more likely...I think the mostly likely scenario is a transient cold shot and we would have to thread the needle or time something to get anything more than a T-1" for DC metro...of course for HGR and MRB and Westminster the rules are different so can't comment as to there... As Wes has mentioned recently, there is no 50-50...lower heights will be to the west of where we want them and storms will cut to our west and possibly re-develop.....and with an unfavorable EPO we will get warm again....I really dont see much to be too excited about for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond....hopefully I will be wrong... Agreed with the lack of 50/50, however the Day 10 EURO is an example of how it 'could' still snow, you'd need a southern shortwave to kind of lag as a northern one helps reinforce some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's a flawed pattern, Matt. No 2 ways around that. My biggest worries are the entire period being wasted by fast moving ns vorts with not enough amplification that they pass north of us and the gulf is locked down like a vault. Then our best case is a lucky pass below us and weak surface low popping east of the br. There is definitely an east based -nao being modeled by all globals. How that shakes out can help. Slow things down enough to get more dig. +pna's don't work well when energy dives down too far east. That is possible as well. With all this being said, I'm probably more bullish than you. Storms have been relatively plentiful and wet coming up from below us this year. Yea, some have been big rainers but the wet pattern is there. And it's a decent climo period. We're 8-10 days from any real threat imo and much will change on guidance. I'll remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Agreed with the lack of 50/50, however the Day 10 EURO is an example of how it 'could' still snow, you'd need a southern shortwave to kind of lag as a northern one helps reinforce some cold air. We haven't had a 50-50 in forever, nor any meaningful blocking in the right place. And still most of us, outside of DC proper, have done pretty well. And its not just the NW crew, this last event I had 7 inches, and about 1.5 total before that. I do understand DC folks being pessimistic. However, while we may be losing the EPO ridge that has been a major factor in driving arctic air southeastward(in spite of generally + AO and NAO), all guidance is bullish on a +PNA, and there are some indications of blocking developing. Maybe one of these warm storms coming up can form a temp 50/50 low and time it with some decent blocking. Who knows. But somehow I think we get a favorable period for much of the MA during the last 10 days of Jan into early Feb. Model guidance generally pointing that way, although the exact details of HOW are obviously unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's a flawed pattern, Matt. No 2 ways around that. My biggest worries are the entire period being wasted by fast moving ns vorts with not enough amplification that they pass north of us and the gulf is locked down like a vault. Then our best case is a lucky pass below us and weak surface low popping east of the br. There is definitely an east based -nao being modeled by all globals. How that shakes out can help. Slow things down enough to get more dig. +pna's don't work well when energy dives down too far east. That is possible as well. With all this being said, I'm probably more bullish than you. Storms have been relatively plentiful and wet coming up from below us this year. Yea, some have been big rainers but the wet pattern is there. And it's a decent climo period. We're 8-10 days from any real threat imo and much will change on guidance. I'll remain optimistic. good points...my guess is we get a 3 day window and then we torch....I liked the recent pattern better for snow, though I think we did maximize potential...I'm curious what happens the last week of January and 1st week of February...my guess is warm the last week of January but not sure about the after that....I wouldn't be surprised to see a split flow pattern develop sometime toward the end of the month or beginning of February..It is showing up in analogs...That may be a time we could capitalize, though I don't know if we will have cold air.....I wonder what HM thinks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 We haven't had a 50-50 in forever, nor any meaningful blocking in the right place. And still most of us, outside of DC proper, have done pretty well. And its not just the NW crew, this last event I had 7 inches, and about 1.5 total before that. I do understand DC folks being pessimistic. However, while we may be losing the EPO ridge that has been a major factor in driving arctic air southeastward(in spite of generally + AO and NAO), all guidance is bullish on a +PNA, and there are some indications of blocking developing. Maybe one of these warm storms coming up can form a temp 50/50 low and time it with some decent blocking. Who knows. But somehow I think we get a favorable period for much of the MA during the last 10 days of Jan into early Feb. Model guidance generally pointing that way, although the exact details of HOW are obviously unclear. I dont know where the cold air will come from..I think there is a better chance we are 60 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I dont know where the cold air will come from..I think there is a better chance we are 60 degrees... 18z gefs agrees 100%. We're the last to enter the fiery cauldren but basically our entire continent turns into molten rock by the last week of the month. One byproduct of the big pna ridge is losing a western Canada cold factory. When it all relaxes it gets ugly without a favorable Atlantic to push cold from the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 18z gefs agrees 100%. We're the last to enter the fiery cauldren but basically our entire continent turns into molten rock by the last week of the month. One byproduct of the big pna ridge is losing a western Canada cold factory. When it all relaxes it gets ugly without a favorable Atlantic to push cold from the pole. Wouldn't put much stock in any one GEFS cycle, but yeah if we are minus the EPO ridge then we need more than just a +PNA to get more than fleeting cold shots. I am banking on some decent blocking, and hopefully the AO can hang around neutral to somewhat negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Any movement in the QBO towards neutral? I dont know where to find updated data. Might be we wont see any meaninful blocking in the high latitudes until the QBO falls some, or there is a SSW event, or both. Wish I knew more about that stuff, the correlations, and what drives what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Cape, the gefs has flattened the pna ridge and warmed NA as a whole for at least 3 runs in a row. The euro ens are quite different but the last week of the month is definitely at risk. I'm mostly focused on the pattern upcoming for a period centered around next weekend. I don't have many thought beyond except we remain in a very variable pattern. So far all the cold shots have been bookended by warm and not seasonal. No reason to bet against that until something changes in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Cape, the gefs has flattened the pna ridge and warmed NA as a whole for at least 3 runs in a row. The euro ens are quite different but the last week of the month is definitely at risk. I'm mostly focused on the pattern upcoming for a period centered around next weekend. I don't have many thought beyond except we remain in a very variable pattern. So far all the cold shots have been bookended by warm and not seasonal. No reason to bet against that until something changes in the Atlantic. Agree on the late next week/weekend period. I see the spread on the ens and the tendency to flatten the ridge, but its good up until about 240 hours, and whatever it shows beyond that is basically for s**ts and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I dont know where the cold air will come from..I think there is a better chance we are 60 degrees... This time of year we don't need polar cold, canadian cold will suffice, but who knows if those damn canadians will share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Cape, the gefs has flattened the pna ridge and warmed NA as a whole for at least 3 runs in a row. The euro ens are quite different but the last week of the month is definitely at risk. I'm mostly focused on the pattern upcoming for a period centered around next weekend. I don't have many thought beyond except we remain in a very variable pattern. So far all the cold shots have been bookended by warm and not seasonal. No reason to bet against that until something changes in the Atlantic. Isn't gefs known for breaking down the western ridge too fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Jb calling for potential eastern superstorm 1993 style in about 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Oh sure, when bob calls for it you mock , but when JB calls for it... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Jb calling for potential eastern superstorm 1993 style in about 10 days He usually makes that call earlier in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 To be fair, none of the doomsday torch predictions have worked out yet. They've all been muted on arrival going back since the summer basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Isn't gefs known for breaking down the western ridge too fast? My hunch is the gefs has it less right than the euro ensembles but I'm just a weenie. Gefs has been bouncing quite a bit while the euro ensembles have been a rock. However, the pna is going to break down at some point. Western Canada will be warm when it does. Unless the Atlantic cooperates at that point we lose the cold through most if not all of Canada. I don't think it's going to be a torch or winter cancel but there would have to be another lull before anything can reload. Considering the last 6 weeks or so that would be nothing more than same ole same ole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 He did not call for anything as yet; just a possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 18z gefs agrees 100%. We're the last to enter the fiery cauldren but basically our entire continent turns into molten rock by the last week of the month. It's interesting you say that. It appears to me that many members on this forum will base their opinions of future weather events off of current model guidance that is 200hr+.... Over the past 24hrs (4 GFS runs) I've read discussions in this thread about: Torching Snowing Cold Warmth Storm No Storm It's like a Ponzi Scheme of old money paying off new money... Some people on this forum alter their opinion every 6 hours based off of singular model runs 10+ days out. Those same people cleverly disguise their constantly changing opinions by talking about different contributing factors that could make up a weather pattern. This gives off the impression they are basing their opinions on patterns, recent bias, and skill. When in reality they aren't applying any discernible method(s) of weather prediction at all; they are simply just reading each and every model run verbatim and regurgitating it in a post. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's interesting you say that. It appears to me that many members on this forum will base their opinions of future weather events off of current model guidance that is 200hr+.... What else to they have to base it on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's interesting you say that. It appears to me that many members on this forum will base their opinions of future weather events off of current model guidance that is 200hr+.... The op run maybe but the ensemble means are all I talk about past 7-8 days unless I'm trolling or joking. Windows of opportunity vs specific storms is what most of us talk about at long leads. We discussed the last window at length for 10 days before it snowed. We're in the same situation again. Over the last 24 hours+ the gefs mean has been steadfast at breaking down the pna ridge much faster than the euro ensemble mean. How big our window will be is what we are discussing. Saying we're all a bunch of long range op model huggers is very incorrect. There is a big difference between the gfs and gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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