H2O Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 ORH mentioned the EPO being a bit more east on the models which would be a plus. Hope they get it right and we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Gfs and euro have the same idea but different in the evolution of next week. Gfs wants to bring a front through and keep up chilly as the wc ridge amplifies. Euro wants to do it in stages with a cooldown mid/late next week and most likely another West track low before the cold dump. Either is plausible. I suppose the euro is more likely given the lack of real blocking but with such an amplified pattern setting up it wouldn't surprise me if the gfs type solution is more correct. We typically don't do well on the front side of a long wave pattern change. I'm pretty bearish on chances before next weekend but it's possible. Imo- the period of the 18th-22nd looks pretty ripe. The Jan 61 analog has been at the top of the op and ens runs of cpc d11+ for long enough to raise an eyebrow. Hopefully it holds. One of the ways to get a ns vort under us without a block is a highly amplified wc ridge / ec trough. That lw pattern looks quite likely at this poin. Placement and timing of any ns energy is impossible to guess at such a long lead but the pattern is looking like the best we've seen so far. Still flawed in the atl though. One of the scenarios for a sig event would be a decent storm (even if rain) mid-late next week becoming a 50/50 for the next piece of energy diving down. Thanks Bob, finally a nice piece of real optimism in this thread. That analog is too tempting to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Thanks Bob, finally a nice piece of real optimism in this thread. That analog is too tempting to ignore. The forecast for the 61 storm was rain and caught everyone by surprise and stranded motorists everywhere. It was a miller b where the ma scored. That is typically not the case without a -nao. Probably the biggest flag going forward is lack of blocking. Op runs will likely tease the hell out of us for the next week or so. Overall it looks like a pattern that can produce though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The forecast for the 61 storm was rain and caught everyone by surprise and stranded motorists everywhere. It was a miller b where the ma scored. That is typically not the case without a -nao. Probably the biggest flag going forward is lack of blocking. Op runs will likely tease the hell out of us for the next week or so. Overall it looks like a pattern that can produce though. We can always thread the needle without a block, it just takes a bit of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 We've had some decent snow events already this season with no blocking. Being that it's Jan 8, I think we have plenty of reasons to be excited about the next 7-8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Indicies have the AO rising. So much for the Strat Warming? NOA indicies look like crap except for the Canadien that wants to tank it PNA looks good EPO indicies look mediocre at best as does the WPO.... time to thread the needle ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Indicies have the AO rising. So much for the Strat Warming? NOA indicies look like crap except for the Canadien that wants to tank it PNA looks good EPO indicies look mediocre at best as does the WPO.... time to thread the needle ladies We did awful last year with good indices. We've done pretty well this year with awful indices. We'll be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 How hard is it to get 12+ inches :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Indicies have the AO rising. So much for the Strat Warming? NOA indicies look like crap except for the Canadien that wants to tank it PNA looks good EPO indicies look mediocre at best as does the WPO.... time to thread the needle ladies So you're good for another 10-15" while dc gets 3-5".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 How hard is it to get 12+ inches :/ Uh.............. never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 We did awful last year with good indices. We've done pretty well this year with awful indices. We'll be OK. The pacific was horrid last year. Positive epo more often than not and a negative PNA with a trough in the west so the indices were pretty mixed. I know my outlooks were pretty negative about snow because of the crummy Pacific. The negative AO and NAO couldn't overcome the horrid Pacific and la Nina pattern. This year is better....but the we probably won't see any real snow chances until after the 17th or 18th. The D+11 has 4 snowstorms out of the top 5 analogs but still only 4 in the 10 had snowstorms within 3 days of the centered mean. 40 percent chance of an inch occurring any time during a week's period in late January is probably pretty close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The pacific was horrid last year. Positive epo more often than not and a negative PNA with a trough in the west so the indices were pretty mixed. I know my outlooks were pretty negative about snow because of the crummy Pacific. The negative AO and NAO couldn't overcome the horrid Pacific and la Nina pattern. This year is better....but the we probably won't see any real snow chances until after the 17th or 18th. The D+11 has 4 snowstorms out of the top 5 analogs but still only 4 in the 10 had snowstorms within 3 days of the centered mean. 40 percent chance of an inch occurring any time during a week's period in late January is probably pretty close to climo. The real kick last year was that things did flip in Feb for a cold/dry clipperfest and then got right in March but our late season climo was too much to overcome. The GEFS isn't nearly as pretty as the euro ens right now. Flattens everything and basically rids NA of cold air by the end of the run. I'm not overly concerned but it can't be discounted. While I think the upcoming pattern looks ok with the PNA ridge and some other help, it is still nothing to place large bets on. The 2 global camps now show different progressions. Gefs is relatively quick window and then closes it. Euro is more bullish and stable. I hope we get more than one op after the warmth goes away next week. I'm ready to concede the atl won't be much help at all anytime soon if at all this season. Maybe it improves in Feb but there isn't a single piece of guidance making a case for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 15-17th a period to watch per the GEFS. GEFS mean has a nice (but transient) -NAO along with the more persistent +PNA and several GEFS members have a snowy Miller B scenario. With the blocking, better chance for that to go underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 15-17th a period to watch per the GEFS. GEFS mean has a nice (but transient) -NAO along with the more persistent +PNA and several GEFS members have a snowy Miller B scenario. With the blocking, better chance for that to go underneath us. About as good a look we've seen all year even if transient. I'm pretty skeptical to be honest. GEFS is bouncing and then there is confusion d11-15. The mean loses and redevelops the toughing in the east. It tells me that the members are all over. I won't even mention the bonfire @ 850 across the western 2/3's of canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 15-17th a period to watch per the GEFS. GEFS mean has a nice (but transient) -NAO along with the more persistent +PNA and several GEFS members have a snowy Miller B scenario. With the blocking, better chance for that to go underneath us. I was just looking at that lol. Not a bad look. at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Euro op says the gefs mean d8 is silly. GEFS isn't doing well right now. I don't think we should hedge any bets on it. Euro is a more believable progression next week as well. We aren't rushing into a favorable pattern coming out of a warmup unless there's another pv dropping in mid next week. Odds of that are slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 If you extrapolate the d10 euro it would probably be a pretty big hit. Already dumping snow in the tn vally. H5 about to close off on the tx coast. Miller A would make ji happy...maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Euro op says the gefs mean d8 is silly. GEFS isn't doing well right now. I don't think we should hedge any bets on it. Euro is a more believable progression next week as well. We aren't rushing into a favorable pattern coming out of a warmup unless there's another pv dropping in mid next week. Odds of that are slim to none. Yeah really quite different. If you extrapolate the d10 euro it would probably be a pretty big hit. Already dumping snow in the tn vally. H5 about to close off on the tx coast. Miller A would make ji happy...maybe... My overseas trip is coming at the perfect time. I get to miss out on all the nasty torch and I'll be back in time for the KU storm coming afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 If you extrapolate the d10 euro it would probably be a pretty big hit. Already dumping snow in the tn vally. H5 about to close off on the tx coast. Miller A would make ji happy...maybe... cant wait to see euro control as it goes past day 10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 just saw the 10 day euro. Looks like it would be an app or inland runner. Its still warm over us as the storm is developing so we dont have a fresh cold air to work with looks like a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 just saw the 10 day euro. Looks like it would be an app or inland runner. Its still warm over us as the storm is developing so we dont have a fresh cold air to work with looks like a rain event I'm not so sure you can say that. Still pos tilt pre-ms river and a pv pressing se. h5 progression and big band of snow in TN and KY would argue against an inland track. It's a threader though and it's 10 days out so our conversation is kinda silly. I'll go with big nasty phased miller A with a perfect track and you go with rain. If I'm right I'm a hero. If you're right then...well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 just saw the 10 day euro. Looks like it would be an app or inland runner. Its still warm over us as the storm is developing so we dont have a fresh cold air to work with looks like a rain event glad you said it first... I didn't want to throw water on the fire but its definitely a rain event on the euro, even up here in PA. Trough already amplifying way too far west and 850's are warming and already up to +5 near DC before precip even starts. Of course looking at specifics at day 10 is silly but getting excited over what is definitely a rainstorm on this run is also silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 just saw the 10 day euro. Looks like it would be an app or inland runner. Its still warm over us as the storm is developing so we dont have a fresh cold air to work with looks like a rain event Cold air will be in place sooner than this run of the Euro shows. Euro has sucked at times med to long range. GEFS says colder quicker. Why not? This winter the pattern has had a tendency to transition rather quickly from unfavorable to favorable(and visa versa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 glad you said it first... I didn't want to throw water on the fire but its definitely a rain event on the euro, even up here in PA. Trough already amplifying way too far west and 850's are warming and already up to +5 near DC before precip even starts. Of course looking at specifics at day 10 is silly but getting excited over what is definitely a rainstorm on this run is also silly. not in the opinion of JB (lol) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42052-january-2014-pattern-discussion/?p=2628314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 not in the opinion of JB (lol) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42052-january-2014-pattern-discussion/?p=2628314 The entire discussion is lol. I was mostly looking to get a rise out of Ji and company. Extrapolating a 10 day op is worse then using an 84 hour nam panel. It's a ripe period with some flaws. That's really all we can say at this point. My exptrapolation is a perfect bombing threading phasing monster. Euro is too slow with the ss. We all know this. BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The entire discussion is lol. I was mostly looking to get a rise out of Ji and company. Extrapolating a 10 day op is worse then using an 84 hour nam panel. It's a ripe period with some flaws. That's really all we can say at this point. My exptrapolation is a perfect bombing threading phasing monster. Euro is too slow with the ss. We all know this. BOOM Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I prefer extrapolations to result in extrapolated KUs.Any other extrapoliations are bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The entire discussion is lol. I was mostly looking to get a rise out of Ji and company. Extrapolating a 10 day op is worse then using an 84 hour nam panel. It's a ripe period with some flaws. That's really all we can say at this point. My exptrapolation is a perfect bombing threading phasing monster. Euro is too slow with the ss. We all know this. BOOM the 10 day euro extrapolated is a great event. Only thing missing is the snow and cold but were good on everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 While it is stupid to talk about specifics 10 days out, I think its okay to talk about overall patterns in the LR. The EURO pattern Day 8 and beyond is more conducive for snow. I think it is almost a lock now that a +PNA is on its way. So maybe we'll cash in if the Atlantic cooperates a little. People always bash me for talking about Day 10 storms. I don't do it because I think a specific storm is coming, but only because when I see a model show a snowstorm, to me it means the pattern has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 we just need snow. 6-12 inch event or bust. I think we are all tired of the 2-4 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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