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January Pattern Discussion


NorthArlington101

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I was just going to post that. lol. Winter abruptly ended after that but who would care. I would would be totally fine canceling in mid feb after a stretch like that. 

 

2/3 was the KU that slammed NYC (24" at Kennedy). 2/8 was slop fest for the DC area-- snow to sleet-- but hit us harder than north east of us. And we even got a modest snow on 2/11. Five snowstorms in a little more than three weeks.

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12z gefs mean and members remain bullish on a +pna ridge d10-15 keeping us cold. Looks active but unless we get some blocking we are at risk for miller b skippage. If the trough is amplified enough it can save us. Looks good for now. 

The operational euro model looks like it would bring another really strong cold shot down if it is right.  The ensemble also seem to be hinting at that. 

 

Wes

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The operational euro model looks like it would bring another really strong cold shot down if it is right.  The ensemble also seem to be hinting at that. 

 

Wes

 

Op keeps getting more bullish on it. 

 

I'm only interested in snow patterns at this point. Especially after last night and today .It's cold but the novelty is gone already. 

 

NH panel @ 240 shows a pretty strong scandanavian ridge pushing into greenland. If we're going to get another blast I sure hope it gets blocked this time instead of a hit and run.

 

I'm looking forward to the warmup but would love to get right back to it and maybe get another widespread event. Everything looks ok but it's all on paper a year in the future. 

 

At the very least I think the odds of you having to write winter wx articles soon are going up;

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Euro ensembles supportive of dropping another cold shot in. d10-15 period looks ok but looks to be a repeat of what we've seen several times already with one exception (better placed and more prominent pna ridge). Maybe we luck our way into a -nao. Otherwise progressive mostly. 

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the pattern sucks for snow like usual

 

It looks like more of the same, haven't you done well this season, I thought you were over 50% of climo and it's only Jan 7th?  I was up in Leesburg for two of the events and they were 3"+ and I thought last week you got like 5".

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Gfs and euro have the same idea but different in the evolution of next week. Gfs wants to bring a front through and keep up chilly as the wc ridge amplifies. Euro wants to do it in stages with a cooldown mid/late next week and most likely another West track low before the cold dump. Either is plausible. I suppose the euro is more likely given the lack of real blocking but with such an amplified pattern setting up it wouldn't surprise me if the gfs type solution is more correct.

We typically don't do well on the front side of a long wave pattern change. I'm pretty bearish on chances before next weekend but it's possible. Imo- the period of the 18th-22nd looks pretty ripe. The Jan 61 analog has been at the top of the op and ens runs of cpc d11+ for long enough to raise an eyebrow. Hopefully it holds.

One of the ways to get a ns vort under us without a block is a highly amplified wc ridge / ec trough. That lw pattern looks quite likely at this poin. Placement and timing of any ns energy is impossible to guess at such a long lead but the pattern is looking like the best we've seen so far. Still flawed in the atl though.

One of the scenarios for a sig event would be a decent storm (even if rain) mid-late next week becoming a 50/50 for the next piece of energy diving down.

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