Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'm not sure how good the euro weeklies are but today's run basically says 3 straight weeks of winter starting around the 16th or so. PNA ridge for a while then during weeks 3-4 it retros but another big -epo reload. No classic blocking signals (east based -nao shows up a bit) but verbatim it would be a great pattern for the east as a whole. 18z gefs moving towards a pretty cold shot 17-21st or so. +pna would help our latitude. With all the guidance I'm seeing right now I think we will have some ok chances at snow this month. Hopefully Wes will be writing a lot of articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'm not sure how good the euro weeklies are but today's run basically says 3 straight weeks of winter starting around the 16th or so. PNA ridge for a while then during weeks 3-4 it retros but another big -epo reload. No classic blocking signals (east based -nao shows up a bit) but verbatim it would be a great pattern for the east as a whole. 18z gefs moving towards a pretty cold shot 17-21st or so. +pna would help our latitude. With all the guidance I'm seeing right now I think we will have some ok chances at snow this month. Hopefully Wes will be writing a lot of articles. Yeah...it has been fun so far, and I look forward to what might come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Ive has more snow events this winter them I did the last 2...and Its only Jan6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 now Europe's weenies know how we felt the last 2+ years on this side of the Pole http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 now Europe's weenies know how we felt the last 2+ years on this side of the Pole http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 now Europe's weenies know how we felt the last 2+ years on this side of the Pole http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html It's about time. It's been so frustrating reading about how cold Europe has been while I was gardening in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It's a US and canda winter so far. Best is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It's a US and canda winter so far. Best is yet to come. Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Talk dirty to me. Euro weeklies kinds sealed the deal in my mind. I've been tracking ens guidance that kept looking really nice...and now I'm starting to believe a solid stretch of real winter is on the way. Not classic or perfect on the panels but real. It will be more clear in a week or so. I'm prayin and huggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 now Europe's weenies know how we felt the last 2+ years on this side of the Pole http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html Perfect for the Olympics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Euro weeklies kinds sealed the deal in my mind. I've been tracking ens guidance that kept looking really nice...and now I'm starting to believe a solid stretch of real winter is on the way. Not classic or perfect on the panels but real. It will be more clear in a week or so. I'm prayin and huggin I hope this doesn't throw a monkey wrench into anything I'll scream if it does http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html maybe HM can weigh in if he sees this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The cold is nice and all, but where are we on Ji's KU for Jan. 17/18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z GEFS basically are saying "what warm up?" . It lasts for maybe 3-4 days? Then rebuilds a +PNA/-EPO/-AO and maybe -NAO combination around Day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z GEFS basically are saying "what warm up?" . It lasts for maybe 3-4 days? Then rebuilds a +PNA/-EPO/-AO and maybe -NAO combination around Day 11. And there is certainly no shortage of cold air sitting up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And there is certainly no shortage of cold air sitting up in Canada. Looks like at least one good shot of cold (nothing near this one though) sometime around the 18-20th. Very amplified pattern for sure across the conus. Still a hostile atlantic but being our coldest climo month we can score. I'll be pissed if we get a west tracking lows with 1 day warmups and 3 day cold dry's. The risk is there but we're always at risk so it is what it is. Should be a fun week after the warmup. We could hit the 60's in the cities sometime mon-wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... cpcd11.JPG I have to stop and remember that it's only Jan 7. Our best winter weather is the next 6-7 weeks. Everyone won't agree, but I think it's been a great winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... cpcd11.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I have to stop and remember that it's only Jan 7. Our best winter weather is the next 6-7 weeks. Everyone won't agree, but I think it's been a great winter to date. I think for pretty much most of the beltway areas in DC/Balt over to Annapolis who cashed in a little bit last week finally, it went a long way toward relaxing things. The only people I would suspect with genuine unrest are the southern parts of our forum, who cashed in last year but not so much this year as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... cpcd11.JPG Was it really cold following that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... cpcd11.JPG I checked nh height patterns on esrl. big +pna, check...aleutian low, check...+epo, check...neutralish nao going east based negative, check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Was it really cold following that storm? yes, highs in teens and 20's for days after...and then another solid smacking on the 26th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Was it really cold following that storm? sure was ever see films of the inaugural speech by Kennedy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 6z gefs super ens for d11....5 out of the top 6 had an inch+ @ dca within a day or 2 on either side. Oh, and the top analog is...well....look it up. heh... cpcd11.JPG Wes has cited the 6z GEFS more than a few times to dash our hopes so I expect him to post anytime now to tell us how excited he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Wes has cited the 6z GEFS more than a few times to dash our hopes so I expect him to post anytime now to tell us how excited he is I'm just having fun with the run. I checked records and there was another hit on Feb 3rd. It was a very cold and snowy stretch in our area. I will remain bullish until Wes tells me not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'm just having fun with the run. I checked records and there was another hit on Feb 3rd. It was a very cold and snowy stretch in our area. I will remain bullish until Wes tells me not to be. It's not a bad pattern. I don't see anything before the 17th but think after that, I'd raise our snow chances to better than climo based on that map. I like that it has a southern stream look to it. I wish we had a 50 50 low but we can't have everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'm just having fun with the run. I checked records and there was another hit on Feb 3rd. It was a very cold and snowy stretch in our area. I will remain bullish until Wes tells me not to be. ..and then another one on 2/8. Basically, for DC proper it was a 6-9" snowstorm once a week for 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Slightly bullish Wes makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 ..and then another one on 2/8. Basically, for DC proper it was a 6-9" snowstorm once a week for 4 weeks. I was just going to post that. lol. Winter abruptly ended after that but who would care. I would would be totally fine canceling in mid feb after a stretch like that. 60-61 isn't a good analog as a whole. It featured plenty of blocking that went kaput in Feb. This year has been quite the opposite in that respect. However, we just had a mini-blocking episode and progs look decent after the warm spell. IF (and it's a big if) the -ao does come back it may stick for a bit. Big +ao years are mixed with flips. Some do and some don't. No confidence other than a period of interest that is gaining traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I checked nh height patterns on esrl. big +pna, check...aleutian low, check...+epo, check...neutralish nao going east based negative, check I ended up with 4 of the 10 having snow within 3 days of the center of the period....the 5th was 4 days from the centered mean, a little farther out than I like to use unless there is a big block like in 2009-2010. I certainly wouldn't look much farther into the year unless you like fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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