Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro ens last night is hinting at an east based nao. High heights in the w atl remain troubling but it is what it is. Ridge w and thought east seems to be on the menu of all ops and ens right now. Warmth remains tempered and switch back to cooler sooner rather than later. Feeling slightly more encouraged about the second half of the month. Verbatim its not an exciting pattern but not a bad one either. If we can get some blocking there does appear to be a chance at split flow and active ss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro ens last night is hinting at an east based nao. High heights in the w atl remain troubling but it is what it is. Ridge w and thought east seems to be on the menu of all ops and ens right now. Warmth remains tempered and switch back to cooler sooner rather than later. Feeling slightly more encouraged about the second half of the month. Verbatim its not an exciting pattern but not a bad one either. If we can get some blocking there does appear to be a chance at split flow and active ss. As you've been saying the warm pattern probably only lasts about a week. The epo is forecast to again turn negative around the 16th, then is usually takes a few days for the cold to build and get to us. Also, the models are starting to show an east based NAO and a negative AO. I'm not yet ready to jump up and say we might go into another period where our snow chances are better than climo like during the 1st week of January but think they certainly will be better than during the Jan 11-17 period. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 As you've been saying the warm pattern probably only lasts about a week. The epo is forecast to again turn negative around the 16th, then is usually takes a few days for the cold to build and get to us. Also, the models are starting to show an east based NAO and a negative AO. I'm not yet ready to jump up and say we might go into another period where our snow chances are better than climo like during the 1st week of January but think they certainly will be better than during the Jan 11-17 period. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png I love me some positive Wes. Negative Wes is like Bizzaro Superman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I love me some positive Wes. Negative Wes is like Bizzaro Superman. lol, I had to look up Bizzaro Superman.....you're making me feel old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol, I had to look up Bizzaro Superman.....you're making me feel old. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Anyone see the mega ice storm the GFS has for N VA? ice.gif The High is definitely in an optimal location.. I'd say outside the mountain valleys, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 As you've been saying the warm pattern probably only lasts about a week. The epo is forecast to again turn negative around the 16th, then is usually takes a few days for the cold to build and get to us. Also, the models are starting to show an east based NAO and a negative AO. I'm not yet ready to jump up and say we might go into another period where our snow chances are better than climo like during the 1st week of January but think they certainly will be better than during the Jan 11-17 period. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png GFS op continues to rush the flip back. EPO ridge all the way to the pole by d10-11 and weak -nao. AO goes negative as well. Still not classic or anything but it's so far out who cares. It's a good sign. I'm interested in the next set of global ensembles. My guess at this point is a return to a similar pattern we saw with the 2 previous -epo reloads but no major arctic outbreak. Just shots of cold and progressive flow. Signs of blocking is encouraging to slow things down. Considering we've been lacking good blocking so far I'll only believe it when I see it @ med-short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6 precip events on today's 16-day GFS. Wet pattern from December looks to be continuing through January. If that holds, we'll have plenty of opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Folks in the southern third of VA, including Richmond, probably should post in the SE sub-forum. Climo there has become "detached" from places just to the north, and is more like that of Central NC. Consider all the big storms and Blizzards over the past 20 years...Richmond area has mostly been excluded. If a worse micro snow hole than DC exists, it is Ric Not really, RIC is an island to itself. I'm eyeballing a guess that we share 70% of the storms, if not more. (RNK CWA specifically) With the lack of winter and storms, it was magnified over the past 3 years, and then this year have SNOW dominating really DC north. 09-10-- We had Dec 5, Dec 18-19, Dec 31, Jan 20, Feb 5, and even Feb 10th (which busted here as a clipper) as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GFS op continues to rush the flip back. EPO ridge all the way to the pole by d10-11 and weak -nao. AO goes negative as well. Still not classic or anything but it's so far out who cares. It's a good sign. I'm interested in the next set of global ensembles. My guess at this point is a return to a similar pattern we saw with the 2 previous -epo reloads but no major arctic outbreak. Just shots of cold and progressive flow. Signs of blocking is encouraging to slow things down. Considering we've been lacking good blocking so far I'll only believe it when I see it @ med-short leads. I've been keeping somewhat of an eye on this as well, and hope the signs the GFS/GEFS have been showing are real. I don't see any major Arctic outbreaks here either as things are depicted, but in reality we don't need that kind of extreme. Just need decent cold air and opportunities. That's not to say there isn't some potential for some pretty darned chilly air to move in perhaps, but it won't be like what's upcoming early next week. That said, there is some very cold air around on this side of the Pole, getting into the usual areas of the upper Midwest and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I've been keeping somewhat of an eye on this as well, and hope the signs the GFS/GEFS have been showing are real. I don't see any major Arctic outbreaks here either as things are depicted, but in reality we don't need that kind of extreme. Just need decent cold air and opportunities. That's not to say there isn't some potential for some pretty darned chilly air to move in perhaps, but it won't be like what's upcoming early next week. That said, there is some very cold air around on this side of the Pole, getting into the usual areas of the upper Midwest and such. GEFS supports the op in timing. At least the warm spell is short. I like that. Not much of a blocking signal on the gefs run. Lots of spread though. Trends remain favorable to get cool again. Doesn't look like a good snow pattern...yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GEFS supports the op in timing. At least the warm spell is short. I like that. Not much of a blocking signal on the gefs run. Lots of spread though. Trends remain favorable to get cool again. Doesn't look like a good snow pattern...yet.. The trouble with the GEFS is when the ridge in western Canada get in a decent place, Low heights develop across iceland and extend back into southern greenland with high heights just to the south. That makes it tough to hold in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm not looking for a ku. Just your normal 6--12 event that lasts 24 hours instead of 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The trouble with the GEFS is when the ridge in western Canada get in a decent place, Low heights develop across iceland and extend back into southern greenland with high heights just to the south. That makes it tough to hold in cold air.Yea, not a great snow pattern verbatim. Maybe it progresses into another modest -ao/ neutral nao so we can time something without needing perfection. It's a good climo period temp wise. Storm track looks similar to the recurring theme. The optimist side of me almost expects some real blocking over gl before the month runs out but it's very cautious optimism at best. Much clearer picture should present itself within a week. Im encouraged that another warm signal got tempered. Can't snow without cold. Can't get big snow without a block unless we fluke it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro ens look pretty decent and continue to show the warm-up ending mid next week. Kinda a nice look with connecting the epo and pna ridges. That would put us in the crosshairs of cool temps. Looks like western Canada reloads with cold during our warm spell. If we could get blocking it would be an ideal setup for above climo chance at snow. Even without a block we wouldn't be screwed. I'm waiting for Ji to post about the coastal next week on the 18z gfs. It's a welcome back to winter party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ens look pretty decent and continue to show the warm-up ending mid next week. Kinda a nice look with connecting the epo and pna ridges. That would put us in the crosshairs of cool temps. Looks like western Canada reloads with cold during our warm spell. If we could get blocking it would be an ideal setup for above climo chance at snow. Even without a block we wouldn't be screwed. I'm waiting for Ji to post about the coastal next week on the 18z gfs. It's a welcome back to winter party. You talking about Thurs? I guess not but some of the gfs mems are flirting with turning it into a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ens look pretty decent and continue to show the warm-up ending mid next week. Kinda a nice look with connecting the epo and pna ridges. That would put us in the crosshairs of cool temps. Looks like western Canada reloads with cold during our warm spell. If we could get blocking it would be an ideal setup for above climo chance at snow. Even without a block we wouldn't be screwed. I'm waiting for Ji to post about the coastal next week on the 18z gfs. It's a welcome back to winter party. This outlook certainly isn't awful. Would be nice to see some indication of ACTUAL blocking developing, but at least the GFS ens mean is generally neutral by mid month, and we have done okay so far with no blocking. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 18z gefs moved towards a +pna/-ao/-nao (east based). Might be an outlier but the look is there. Lr guidance continues to improve starting late next week. Wnwxluvr, I was talking about next wed-thurs about the coastal. Just joking around but the run had it...and a great lakes low to screw up temps....I dont think its a period of interest honestly either way. Ops runs suck that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 This outlook certainly isn't awful. Would be nice to see some indication of ACTUAL blocking developing, but at least the GFS ens mean is generally neutral by mid month, and we have done okay so far with no blocking. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif One notable thing about the ao is that it has been verifying below guidance last week or 2 as opposed to above for the previous month or so. This is notable with ens guidance on the indicies. Will it continue? Who knows but it's noteworthy nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro control looks cold after 10 days and has a noreaster on January 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro control looks cold after 10 days and has a noreaster on January 17th HA - LC was pointing to the 18th/19th - I AM NOT SAYING I TRUST LC - or the EURO control for that matter - OR models after 10 days - I AM JUST sharing what he said - Yes I had to say that since the last time I mentioned LC I got blasted... (and now someone will just for the fun of it!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro control looks cold after 10 days and has a noreaster on January 17th Pretty tight clustering of guidance across the board pointing towards a meaningful +pna. Possible east based -nao. Anything is possible but calling for a noreaster at 11 days (LC) is silly. Hopefully split flow lights things up. I personally doubt a big storm that quick into the pattern change if at all this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Pretty tight clustering of guidance across the board pointing towards a meaningful +pna. Possible east based -nao. Anything is possible but calling for a noreaster at 11 days (LC) is silly. Hopefully split flow lights things up. I personally doubt a big storm that quick into the pattern change if at all this month. LC also says winter is over after valentines day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 GFS has a similar look around day 12. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro control looks cold after 10 days and has a noreaster on January 17thWeekend rule, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro control looks cold after 10 days and has a noreaster on January 17th Awesome, we really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 LC also says winter is over after valentines day Make it Presidents Day and I'm all for it being over unless its going to be like days and days of neg 15 departures on high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Make it Presidents Day and I'm all for it being over unless its going to be like days and days of neg 15 departures on high temps. I'd go for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I'd go for that! Traitor! lol- just kiddin. I wouldn't mind it either unless we sucked all winter in the snow dept. Euro ensembles have been looking pretty good lately. Not perfect but good. Atlantic mostly hostile but having a +pna & -epo is a bit of a new look compared to the last -epo periods. At least the coldest anomalies would be centered closer to us. Looks miller b'ish to me but the storm track would be further south in this setup imo. I can't really tell if it's split flow look. Some bagginess in mx and under the pna ridge but I really don't know if this means anything. The hl's look like weak east based -nao and neutral to negative ao but nothing eye popping. I'm interested to hear your thoughts. I like it and don't like it at the same time but it's certainly not zero chance of snow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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