Ji Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 looked all all the indicies on weather bell and here is what i came up with NAO is staying/going positive PNA is heading negative AO is going positive EPO is going positive WPO is going positive cant wait to see composite maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The thing about the euro ens run is that it dropped a cookie crumb. We've seen a big warm signal at least 2 times now since Nov and it has trended away. The first one dissolved completely. The second one ended up with short lived but record breaking heat. I don't doubt a mild spell at all. I'm pretty sold honestly. But this last euro was a small crack in its bullish warm signal. Gefs isn't great but definitely seem to have enough members pushing higher heights on the west coast/goa poleward to show up on the means. Pv placement not very appealing and no blocking takes away for sure but at such a long lead there are 2 camps and the euro just showed a little move towards the gfs. I'm not as bearish as matt on the 3 week period to close the month. Not thrilled but not bearish. I wish we could all chip and buy a real -nao. Otoh- a +pna might produce because ns vorts always drop big pretty snows now. Lol Matt thinks the 3 week period to close the month will suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The thing about the euro ens run is that it dropped a cookie crumb. We've seen a big warm signal at least 2 times now since Nov and it has trended away. The first one dissolved completely. The second one ended up with short lived but record breaking heat. I don't doubt a mild spell at all. I'm pretty sold honestly. But this last euro was a small crack in its bullish warm signal. Gefs isn't great but definitely seem to have enough members pushing higher heights on the west coast/goa poleward to show up on the means. Pv placement not very appealing and no blocking takes away for sure but at such a long lead there are 2 camps and the euro just showed a little move towards the gfs. I'm not as bearish as matt on the 3 week period to close the month. Not thrilled but not bearish. I wish we could all chip and buy a real -nao. Otoh- a +pna might produce because ns vorts always drop big pretty snows now. Lol Well you've got DT on your side. He just wrote on CWG that the mild spell would only last a week. He could be right. I have no real opinion past the 17th. I'm pretty sold on the period Jan 11th through the 17th on average being cold. Course Dave correctly jumped on the 3rd, I only liked sometime in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Matt thinks the 3 week period to close the month will suck Could happen. Looks like one of those weeks will suck at least. 2 wouldnt shock me. 3 would be a big reversal of the variability we've had for many months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ion's front is gonna be killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Matt thinks the 3 week period to close the month will suck This isn't high confidence stuff, but yes...the Aleutian High is a reasonably stable pattern that re-establishes itself. I think the progged PAC air pattern is reasonably shortlived. Doesnt mean we will have the monster EPO ridge we had at times in December..it will probably be too far southwest to really put us in the freezer....I dont expect a good snow pattern for the rest of the month. You may sneak in an event or 2 out there, but for me and Wes, I think T-1" event (s) after January 10th or so. But Aleutian ridge, low heights over Hudson bay, Ridge over us (perhaps east of us), POS NAO, Neutral AO. So what does that mean? predominant 40s/50s, with 3-4 cold shots, that last 1-2 days with a climo transition day on one or both sides. I figure 1 or 2 of the cold shots could be decent, so maybe we can sneak in a mangled event in there. a clipper or a western low into CAD or whatever. I'll say at DCA we end January with 9-10 days of 50+...so around our average of 8.6 days....I still like +2 overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ion's front is gonna be killer. Oh yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00 GFS brings cold back around mid-month. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro is colder for Thursday.....need more moisture though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro is colder for Thursday.....need more moisture though... Looks like some light snow thurs.eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like euro and gfs agree on ejecting a weak flat wave in front of the eventual rainstorm that kicks off the heatwave Not at bad setup for an inch or 2? Global ensembles remain at odds in the lr. Euro is terrible and gfs is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If we can snag a 6-10 inch snow in February or March most around here will be at climo or above so hard to get too worried about a January thaw right now. Most? That's a bold call..Anywhere south of BWI to WIN line have little or none. Cho has like an inch.. RIC, ROA and RIC shut out, DC has like 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Most? That's a bold call..Anywhere south of BWI to WIN line have little or none. Cho has like an inch.. RIC, ROA and RIC shut out, DC has like 3 inches. Yeah, last years 'snowline' is still in effect for area, just flipped sides! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah, last years 'snowline' is still in effect for area, just flipped sides! lol Yep. No blocking=no southern sliders that benefit us over the DC/MD folks. It's still very early in the game though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Most? That's a bold call..Anywhere south of BWI to WIN line have little or none. Cho has like an inch.. RIC, ROA and RIC shut out, DC has like 3 inches. Your climo is different from mine. You are like in a totally different region, dude. You have also done OK the last few seasons. DC itself has three inches but that's because it is DC. Everyone else nearby has more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep. No blocking=no southern sliders that benefit us over the DC/MD folks. It's still very early in the game though. Yep. I haven't crossed 3 inches yet for year, but no complaints. Actually been rooting for DC area lol. We will get ours, if not this year next. That is what averages are all about. If you get a 5, 10, and a 45 over three years still averages out to 20/year. First year is horrible, last is great, just the way it works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep. I haven't crossed 3 inches yet for year, but no complaints. Actually been rooting for DC area lol. We will get ours, if not this year next. That is what averages are all about. If you get a 5, 10, and a 45 over three years still averages out to 20/year. First year is horrible, last is great, just the way it works around here. What do you average in the Covington area? I think my climo is about 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Your climo is different from mine. You are like in a totally different region, dude. You have also done OK the last few seasons. DC itself has three inches but that's because it is DC. Everyone else nearby has more. Absolutely. It appears to me that where you are and others N/W of DC are at 150-200% of normal to date for snowfall. I look around a lot to see how others are doing and so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What do you average in the Covington area? I think my climo is about 18". I've kept records for close to 30 years, average 26+. There is a Co-op that reports for Covington from the water plant, which is next to the large papermill (UHI effect BIG TIME!) and I think he averages 17 or so. I can have 7, he will report 4. I have moved once in that time, to a location between two higher mountains and it does make a difference although only 300 foot higher in elevation from previous location. I'm running close to 2 inches more snow than before move in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Your climo is different from mine. You are like in a totally different region, dude. You have also done OK the last few seasons. DC itself has three inches but that's because it is DC. Everyone else nearby has more. 6-10 wouldn't get me to climo, nor would it for most folks from probably Rockville-Manassas south. With the recent event, some of the eastern folks would get close with a 10" atorm. I'm not complaining...just putting some perspective on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 6-10 wouldn't get me to climo, nor would it for most folks from probably Rockville-Manassas south. With the recent event, some of the eastern folks would get close with a 10" atorm. I'm not complaining...just putting some perspective on it. these last 2 winters have exposed what many of us who grew up here have known for years...that in a number of winters we are not all in this together...huge discrepancies across the area that are out of whack with climo....of course this smooths out over time....which is part of the reason I am DC centric...because there is no "us" that spans the region....of course we arent going to have 1000 subforums, but people need to recgonize there is no "us" for many events....I enjoy seeing others in the region get snow...in particular the folks to the west.....but in winters like this I really couldnt care less about the York PA's and Cecil County MD's because what is happening there has nothing to do with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I celebrate snow for anyone, it is part of my cherubic nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It is very much localized. At Chestnut Ridge in Northern Baltimore County we are already at about 20-22 inches... Most from the first snow to ice event early December (Dec 8th I think) where we got 9 inches due to very late change over. I thought I read that average annual snowfall in "Baltimore" is 20.2 or 20.6 inches. So we are at climo I guess. We have elevation here and that helps. Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GEFS remains bullish on kicking the warmup out after a week. Lala op agrees. Still not a great look but good ridging out west and ok trough axis to sneak something by accident underneath us. Anything big would likely cut with no block. Hints of a reload of cold into western/central canada dropping in to the US. It will change plenty of times I'm sure. We'll see what 12z euro ensembles show. So far they are very much opposed to kicking the warmth out and returning troughing in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thurs-Fri remains a period of interest. Euro is plenty cold but as matt said earlier, we need precip. HP in a good spot to the N and moisture approaching from the tn valley. It's a pretty standard light overrunning look. Would be nice to score a little before we put on shorts for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thurs-Fri remains a period of interest. Euro is plenty cold but as matt said earlier, we need precip. HP in a good spot to the N and moisture approaching from the tn valley. It's a pretty standard light overrunning look. Would be nice to score a little before we put on shorts for a bit. its .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 its .02 And 6 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And 6 days away Ever since the upgrades, the Euro at long leads is still Dr. NO. But then it becomes Dr. Meh, then Dr. Maybe, Then Dr. OK WHATEVER GFS and NAM SAY, as the event nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Your climo is different from mine. You are like in a totally different region, dude. You have also done OK the last few seasons. DC itself has three inches but that's because it is DC. Everyone else nearby has more. Qualify most. . Us south of DC are still in this forum. Last year was climo.. just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Qualify most. . Us south of DC are still in this forum. Last year was climo.. just about. I'm sorry you're frustrated. If you want me to acknowledge that you are getting shafted, I will. I'm sure once blocking shows up we'll be back to Roanoke and CHO getting 6-10 each storm while those up north get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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