mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 After the really cold jolt, it's a secret until my article comes out. I will give you a hint.....Ji won't like it much. when was the last time he was happy?....and brief neurotic satisfaction doesn't count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I agree here. It's way over my head so I never talk about it. It seems to be used all too often as a crutch because the pattern sux and somebody is searching for the magic bullet. I don't question its significance but I only read posts from those well versed in it. On a pattern note...12z gefs say +pna is all we got. Atlantic remains decidedly against us and the big cold won't be rushing back anytime soon (verbatim). At least Jan is our coldest climo month. Transient cool/cold could score a random chance if the gefs is more right than the euro ens. No classic signals on the 2 week horizon yet. Hard to complain or worry considering what's happened so far this winter. Looking at the ENSM outlooks over the next 2 weeks, it certainly doesn't look awful towards mid month. AO looks to head back to at least neutral after a decidedly positive spike, NAO looks more or less neutral, certainly does not appear go into a strongly positive phase, and as you said the PNA looks to be positive. Of course all subject to change and this is only the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I agree with you and Bob that ill-informed mets use the stratosphere to hype a pattern change beyond 10 days. The funny this is: it is usually something within the troposphere that causes our cold but makes an impression on the stratosphere. It's sometimes a red herring. Thinking back to October-November, there were several social media superstars suggesting "SSW coming, major Arctic Air." But the cold was going to come for other reasons and that was NO SSW. They never happen in the autumn, lol. Very true! SSWs are a winter (usually mid-late winter) event in the stratosphere, so it's kind of funny to hear some people claiming there was one in late fall. My doctoral work dealt with the polar vortex activity in the stratosphere, how it can become disturbed (such as during a SSW), and how material in the vortex can thus be propagated and mixed into the middle and lower latitudes via wave activity. There is definitely something to the easterly phase of the QBO enhancing the ability to disrupt the vortex and get SSWs (more so than the westerly phase). My studies and work did not deal with any correlation between a disturbed/displaced stratospheric vortex and high-latitude tropospheric blocking. I've only read and heard a few cursory things that at times it seems associated especially if the warming propagates downward significantly, but correlation is not causation as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 After the really cold jolt, it's a secret until my article comes out. I will give you a hint.....Ji won't like it much. Winter cancel...for the 10th time? ; ) It hasn't been too much of a secret that the middle part of the month will be pretty lame in terms of winter. Beyond that, well, who knows! We can hope for a relatively short window where things moderate. As others have suggested in here the flow this winter has been progressive rather than locking in to one thing or another. Maybe that bodes well for opportunities later in the month and February. We'll see, I suppose. If we can finally get a block, that might go a long way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From the crappy 24hr products on Ewall, the Euro looks quite a bit more GFS-like for next Thurs-Fri with a flat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From the crappy 24hr products on Ewall, the Euro looks quite a bit more GFS-like for next Thurs-Fri with a flat wave. gave us "some" snow on last night's run Wxmedler said naso much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think there have been some early warming events but they are almost all easterly qbos and often with the solar activity being at a min. Westerly warming events tend to be late. Also, if you look at Baldwin's correlations between the SSW and AO, there is a pretty good correlation but it leaves a lot of variance from other causes making using it really tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From the crappy 24hr products on Ewall, the Euro looks quite a bit more GFS-like for next Thurs-Fri with a flat wave. Kinda similar but won't get the job done. We lose 850s and surface well before any decent stuff would get here. It's a step away from a rainy cutter and more towards the gfs so it's a net +. Mitch, euro says the only thing accompanying the arctic front will be a stray flurry and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GGEM looks alot more interesting http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&map=na〈=en&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think there have been some early warming events but they are almost all easterly qbos and often with the solar activity being at a min. Westerly warming events tend to be late. Also, if you look at Baldwin's correlations between the SSW and AO, there is a pretty good correlation but it leaves a lot of variance from other causes making using it really tough. Interesting. Now that I think of it and recall some things, yes, there is more of a correlation between SSW and AO. But I think people sometimes automatically think that immediately translates into great blocking as a corollary, which does not always happen or at least not always that favorably. An easterly QBO is definitely more disruptive to the strat vortex, and earlier events are not unheard of in that phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 wow thanks JI, GGEM looks nice for 10th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not worried about what happens next, neither are analogs. We will continue to infrequently be unable to avoid the strong low to our west, temps pop to near 60 for 24 hours, and then return flow cold. We have been getting arctic penetrations since November and that is not finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Correction: it's something that is always talked about with a lack of knowledge and ALWAYS happens. Many people are ill-informed about the stratosphere and so it has built a bad reputation with wx enthusiasts. I agree with you and Bob that ill-informed mets use the stratosphere to hype a pattern change beyond 10 days. The funny this is: it is usually something within the troposphere that causes our cold but makes an impression on the stratosphere. It's sometimes a red herring. Thinking back to October-November, there were several social media superstars suggesting "SSW coming, major Arctic Air." But the cold was going to come for other reasons and that was NO SSW. They never happen in the autumn, lol. I have read somewhere that there are pretty solid numbers to back up the SSW theory. But I cant find it right now. Anyways, that is way over my education level . Edit: I should have read further down the page. Some really great info in here. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ways out but dont we think there is ice storm potential for next Thurs/Fri? Hard for me to tell how strong the high is cuz my maps suck but high looks in good position...CMC seems like it would be a snowy/icy solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ways out but dont we think there is ice storm potential for next Thurs/Fri? Hard for me to tell how strong the high is cuz my maps suck but high looks in good position...CMC seems like it would be a snowy/icy solution Cmc is def not a go to for long leads but looked ok. Just unlikely. It has mix event potential. Depends on the vort track and if we can hold on to hp to the n long enough. Anything amplified will likely be pretty wet. There appears to be potential for a long finger of waa precip well in front of the vort. If we get in the crosshairs of that and it comes quick enough there could be some light snow. I'm interested but not enthused yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 15 day euro ensembles seems to show a reload...higher heights in alaska/west...trough in the east and higher heights in Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 15 day euro ensembles seems to show a reload...higher heights in alaska/west...trough in the east and higher heights in Greenland Encouraging to see, as the GEFS has a similar look (and has for awhile) in terms of re-establishing the ridge out west. How "big" is the signal for higher heights in Greenland in the Euro ensembles (is it just a hint, or actually building)? I don't think the GEFS mean showed much there, so I'm curious. Though I know the GFS oper has tried to push ridging over that area a few times, most notably yesterday's 18Z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Encouraging to see, as the GEFS has a similar look (and has for awhile) in terms of re-establishing the ridge out west. How "big" is the signal for higher heights in Greenland in the Euro ensembles (is it just a hint, or actually building)? I don't think the GEFS mean showed much there, so I'm curious. Though I know the GFS oper has tried to push ridging over that area a few times, most notably yesterday's 18Z cycle. well its definitely not a true/classic -NAO. Pretty east based== It looks better on the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I guess we are tracking day 7 full bore now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I guess we are tracking day 7 full bore now? We always do well with highs sliding off the coast as moisture approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I guess we are tracking day 7 full bore now? I wasn't and also still think the Euro ens at 360 is a bad one for us. Too much ridging in the east. The 12Z GEFS ens plume didn't like the day 7 even much in terms of snow. Still too early to know for sure but the airmass is likely to be stale so we need weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wasn't and also still think the Euro ens at 360 is a bad one for us. Too much ridging in the east. The 12Z GEFS ens plume didn't like the day 7 even much in terms of snow. Still too early to know for sure but the airmass is likely to be stale so we need weak. Maybe some moisture breaks out sooner on the models as we get closer to next thurs/fri and catches the retreating air mass with a quick overrunning thump before drizzle. 1/3 - 2/4 type deal might be best case scenario. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18Z NAM has arctic frontal snows....well, actually almost looks like a mini disturbance on the front that rides up along it about .1" qpf EDIT: 18z GFS has it too, a little stronger....same idea as NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18Z NAM has arctic frontal snows....well, actually almost looks like a mini disturbance on the front that rides up along it about .1" qpf Nam is thunder sleet for jyo haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nam is thunder sleet for jyo haha Can we get a real snow please. Double digit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Can we get a real snow please. Double digit .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If I nickle and dime my way to 20 inches this year, I'll be ecstatic. Can we get a real snow please. Double digit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The Western Atlantic ridging looks rather persistent on the GEFS and really has been all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wasn't and also still think the Euro ens at 360 is a bad one for us. Too much ridging in the east. The 12Z GEFS ens plume didn't like the day 7 even much in terms of snow. Still too early to know for sure but the airmass is likely to be stale so we need weak.The thing about the euro ens run is that it dropped a cookie crumb. We've seen a big warm signal at least 2 times now since Nov and it has trended away. The first one dissolved completely. The second one ended up with short lived but record breaking heat. I don't doubt a mild spell at all. I'm pretty sold honestly. But this last euro was a small crack in its bullish warm signal. Gefs isn't great but definitely seem to have enough members pushing higher heights on the west coast/goa poleward to show up on the means. Pv placement not very appealing and no blocking takes away for sure but at such a long lead there are 2 camps and the euro just showed a little move towards the gfs. I'm not as bearish as matt on the 3 week period to close the month. Not thrilled but not bearish. I wish we could all chip and buy a real -nao. Otoh- a +pna might produce because ns vorts always drop big pretty snows now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If we can snag a 6-10 inch snow in February or March most around here will be at climo or above so hard to get too worried about a January thaw right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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