WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 just for sh-its and giggles, the GFS has us at around 12 degrees at the onset of the event and still in the mid to upper teens after we've been thumped good...It has been a while since we have had an event with super cold temps...It would be nice to get a front end thump even with temps in the low to mid 20s... And about a 1/4 inch of ice on top. Then a follow up 3-6 southern slider followed by an arctic blast of historic proportions. I'll get to the second half of January later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 And about a 1/4 inch of ice on top. Then a follow up 3-6 southern slider followed by an arctic blast of historic proportions. I'll get to the second half of January later. you're in a great spot with these tricky tracks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 you're in a great spot with these tricky tracks.. Those kind of temps would put everyone in a great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Perfect.Uhh ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Those kind of temps would put everyone in a great spot If we took it verbatim, you and I would be looking really good for frozen precip for the Jan 2-3 timeframe. 850's are cold, surface looks cold. But we know the drill with the gfs past truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Perfect. Uhh ok Ugh. Models look great why so defeated??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Ugh. Models look great why so defeated???I was just going off the description here. Anything that turns to rain isn't perfect in my book. I haven't looked at the run and probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I was just going off the description here. Anything that turns to rain isn't perfect in my book. I haven't looked at the run and probably won't. There are other books besides yours. One mans trash is another mans treasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 There are other books besides yours. One mans trash is another mans treasure. especially if you're in Winchester or Mt. Parkton... and we all know why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 that was an easy callNice, I was out for a while and just looked at the panels. Signal is strong. Track is sketchy but that applies to 95% of our storms. Imo- we wouldn't lose 850's so quick. Pretty burley airmass in front. We can do well here even if wet during the latter part. Even flawed this could be one of our more promising setups in quite some time. And it looks like chances behind it. Fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 especially if you're in Winchester or Mt. Parkton... and we all know why Yeah I suppose I do agree with Ian. Just a communication breakdown I guess. I wouldn't find a snow to rain event good myself, but that rarely happens. What usually happens is it goes to freezing rain and then to drizzle. The problem lately is that it's been too warm in DC for the front end to matter. The description Matt gave would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not that it matters at this point but the gfs has an 8 degree temp difference at 2m at jyo vs. DCA during heaviest precip...jyo 27 DCA 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 There are other books besides yours. One mans trash is another mans treasure. 2-4 would be cool.. perfect is a stretch. DC is always so close to the line it's hard to ever get too invested early. I can see as well as anyone that there is a signal for a storm but that doesn't mean much else for me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 2-4 would be cool.. perfect is a stretch. DC is always so close to the line it's hard to ever get too invested early. I can see as well as anyone that there is a signal for a storm but that doesn't mean much else for me at this point. I think it would be awesome to get a wall of precip with surface temps of like 16...we haven't had that in forever..even like 24 would be great...wasting so much time at 33-34 gets annoying...I'd kind of rather have a messed up track but with a wet, super cold event, than a good track with temps of 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not that it matters at this point but the gfs has an 8 degree temp difference at 2m at jyo vs. DCA during heaviest precip...jyo 27 DCA 35 yeah...but after 0.3" falls we are only 25 with the whole column below freezing...we'd probably get another 0.2" before we flip...it would actually be a nice event even for the city..3-5" to sleet to ice to rain to snow? of course the details are silly.. I bet we have a thread by Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 yeah...but after 0.3" falls we are only 25 with the whole column below freezing...we'd probably get another 0.2" before we flip...it would actually be a nice event even for the city..3-5" to sleet to ice to rain to snow? of course the details are silly.. I bet we have a thread by Thursday Lets trend this sucker right! It's time dang it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 yeah...but after 0.3" falls we are only 25 with the whole column below freezing...we'd probably get another 0.2" before we flip...it would actually be a nice event even for the city..3-5" to sleet to ice to rain to snow? of course the details are silly.. I bet we have a thread by Thursday # of tasty members on the 18z gefs increased from 12z. Some are great for all snow. But they aren't the prolific ones... Trending better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 # of tasty members on the 18z gefs increased from 12z. Some are great for all snow. But they aren't the prolific ones... Trending better... Let's go with the prolific wet ones. With Matts temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 And about a 1/4 inch of ice on top. Then a follow up 3-6 southern slider followed by an arctic blast of historic proportions. I'll get to the second half of January later. Ugh. Models look great why so defeated??? Forgive me if I missed something on the 18Z GFS, I only gave a quick cursory glance at it. But after the potential storm on Jan 3-4, the 18Z doesn't exactly look cold. In fact, it looks pretty lousy...the 850 temps go above zero soon after that, followed by a big cutter, and it doesn't exactly cool off much beyond that toward the close of the run. Flow seems to lift a lot more than what we've seen before. Now I will say that the 12Z looked a lot colder (maybe that's what you're referring to?), and the ensemble means from both 12Z and 18Z look a fair bit different than the evolution of the deterministic 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Forgive me if I missed something on the 18Z GFS, I only gave a quick cursory glance at it. But after the potential storm on Jan 3-4, the 18Z doesn't exactly look cold. In fact, it looks pretty lousy...the 850 temps go above zero soon after that, followed by a big cutter, and it doesn't exactly cool off much beyond that toward the close of the run. Flow seems to lift a lot more than what we've seen before. Now I will say that the 12Z looked a lot colder (maybe that's what you're referring to?), and the ensemble means from both 12Z and 18Z look a fair bit different than the evolution of the deterministic 18Z. I haven't seen it so I can't answer your question. As a general rule just go with the coldest and snowiest parts of any of the daily runs. Just piece them together like a quilt. LOL , j/k of course. I haven't seen it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 18z gefs mean sucked past d10 compared to everything else. I normally refrain from commenting on negative runs without other support but it was a notable step backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 18z gefs mean sucked past d10 compared to everything else. I normally refrain from commenting on negative runs without other support but it was a notable step backwards. It's hideous in the longer range...hopefully just a happy hour hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest StormTracker23 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 00z GFS looks to be coming in a little weaker through hour 186 and a bit further south. By the way, hello americanwx. Just joined the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no 1/4/14 apps runner on the 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 IMO 00z is a decent run. 1/3 seems to be all snow event followed by multiple storm chances. Major cold blast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no 1/4/14 apps runner on the 00z gfs as Bob put it...northern stream grand larceny...we get miller b'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 as Bob put it...northern stream grand larceny...we get miller b'ed Lol- and the worst thing about the run is the miller b pops from a ns vort that doesn't even get under us. It's more like a miller b- or c+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 euro plows a low to our west..greater metro area gets 1-3" before we all flip to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 euro plows a low to our west..greater metro area gets 1-3" before we all flip to rainIt redevelops well south but the primary is so strong it doesn't matter. Right in between the gfs and euro is a big storm for us. Blend is the smart call right? LolPretty sure someone gets a major storm here. Maybe not our subforum but we may end up being slightly happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 day 10 is historic cold...looks like 1pm temp of around 12 at DCA, and -12 at Indianapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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