Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah, the -NAO has certainly been elusive, let's hope that changes! There was mention of a stratospheric warming either occurring now or forecast to. I know it's not a hard-set correlation, but if that's true with the SSW, perhaps that's a sign we can get blocking toward late January. Are the Euro ensembles at odds with the GEFS, or its own deterministic? For all the talk of ssw over the last couple years, results are muddy at best imo. I personally don't put much stock in speculation about what's going to happen. If it really does happen then I just pay more attention to high latitude height patterns and see if things trend better. Euro op only goes out 10 days so the only euro product for d11-15 is the ensembles. GFS op should probably stop @ d10 too. lol The ensembles have been at odds with each other in handling the pac at long leads. And they've been at odds for a few days now. Either could be right or wrong. I'm not really sure. GEFS just brought the mjo to life but not in the right phase. Phase 6-7. These phases typically correlate to warmth in the east. We need 8-1-2 progression in JFM if we are hoping for the mjo "to save us". MJO is tough to predict when it's weak and changes a lot. I only look at it when it's active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z GFS looks bullish with arctic FROPA SHSN. Dusting-1.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For what has been a supposedly "hostile" pattern this sure has felt more like winter than recent years...numbers are overrated...it's all about perception Most of us are at least 50% of climo with some places already nearing climo by the first week of January. I like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We've been hearing all about this major "stratospheric warming" event...I don't know what it means, but could it translate into a cold/snowy late Jan/ early Feb? go to this link click on January 2 (it updates daily) click on 30hPa under the "Pressure Level" category on the left and when the day 1 map comes up just click on "NEXT" button on the top right and you can scroll through day 9 for day 10, go down one map (seems) to stop at day 9 for some reason these days (didn't used to) http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe my eyes are screwy, but does the 12z GFS get DCA below 0 Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z GFS looks bullish with arctic FROPA SHSN. Dusting-1.5"? I only have ncep to 72 hrs but there's a nice negative tilt on that trough which lends credence to the chance in my simple mind http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 i know the euro operational is usually better than the GFS but is their proof that the euro ensembles are much better than GEFS? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 wx bell shows maybe .1 falling as snow at best. Could be dusting to 1"? Not a fan of trajectory over the mountains as lp pulls away N. Downsloping ftl... Arctic fronts are usually squally though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 wx bell shows maybe .1 falling as snow at best. Could be dusting to 1"? Not a fan of trajectory over the mountains as lp pulls away N. Downsloping ftl... Arctic fronts are usually squally though. with temps, I could see an inch IF .1" qpf actually falls (I agree w/you re the downsloping creating false hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mixy event signal on the 9-10th. Not ideal but cold will be entrenched. Depends on how much confluence we can get above us to keep the vort below us. Overunning out in front prog'd to miss north but speed could play a factor. If it speeds up a little I would think we would do ok in the front running wave. HP to the north is "ok" but not encouraging. Wes will be in here shortly talking about hp off the coast being bad but the atlantic should be frozen by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mixy event signal on the 9-10th. Not ideal but cold will be entrenched. Depends on how much confluence we can get above us to keep the vort below us. Overunning out in front prog'd to miss north but speed could play a factor. If it speeds up a little I would think we would do ok in the front running wave. HP to the north is "ok" but not encouraging. Wes will be in here shortly talking about hp off the coast being bad but the atlantic should be frozen by then. Low in Pittsburgh and a high in South Carolina? I think Wes will be pulling out his "O" face for that one In reality, the high position looks better on this run than in previous versions. After that wave passes, it's torch o'clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Low in Pittsburgh and a high in South Carolina? I think Wes will be pulling out his "O" face for that one In reality, the high position looks better on this run than in previous versions. After that wave passes, it's torch o'clock. It's strung out too. waa stuff way in front of the vort. Just pointing it out cause it's all we got. Euro says bigger storm cuts and rains. I think a sheared solution is our only hope and a light event at best. And yes, warmup is def incoming. let's root for a short one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It just wants to snow here...it will all sort itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the east goes Torch about mid January through the end of the month. Enjoy the cold while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For what has been a supposedly "hostile" pattern this sure has felt more like winter than recent years...numbers are overrated...it's all about perception When it comes to precip and snow I don't think anyone really has any clue at range. Temps.. definitely a lot more. I mean, you get bounds by certain patterns.. like this couldn't have been a 2' snowstorm or something, but whatever. Even in the place it never snows I'm mildly excited by where we stand on Jan 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the east goes Torch about mid January through the end of the month. Enjoy the cold while it lasts. ??? You live in Richmond, its always a torch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ??? You live in Richmond, its always a torch there. Yea, and that was some amazing analysis too all the maps, data, and sound reasoning has me scared. 28 day leads are pretty easy nowadays though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yea, and that was some amazing analysis too all the maps, data, and sound reasoning has me scared. 28 day leads are pretty easy nowadays though. Sounds like Wes is about to back him up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yea, and that was some amazing analysis too all the maps, data, and sound reasoning has me scared. 28 day leads are pretty easy nowadays though. You hit the nail right on the head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It's something that's always talked about but never actually happens. Correction: it's something that is always talked about with a lack of knowledge and ALWAYS happens. Many people are ill-informed about the stratosphere and so it has built a bad reputation with wx enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Correction: it's something that is always talked about with a lack of knowledge and ALWAYS happens. Many people are ill-informed about the stratosphere and so it has built a bad reputation with wx enthusiasts. I agree here. It's way over my head so I never talk about it. It seems to be used all too often as a crutch because the pattern sux and somebody is searching for the magic bullet. I don't question its significance but I only read posts from those well versed in it. On a pattern note...12z gefs say +pna is all we got. Atlantic remains decidedly against us and the big cold won't be rushing back anytime soon (verbatim). At least Jan is our coldest climo month. Transient cool/cold could score a random chance if the gefs is more right than the euro ens. No classic signals on the 2 week horizon yet. Hard to complain or worry considering what's happened so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I agree here. It's way over my head so I never talk about it. It seems to be used all too often as a crutch because the pattern sux and somebody is searching for the magic bullet. I don't question its significance but I only read posts from those well versed in it. On a pattern note...12z gefs say +pna is all we got. Atlantic remains decidedly against us and the big cold won't be rushing back anytime soon (verbatim). At least Jan is our coldest climo month. Transient cool/cold could score a random chance if the gefs is more right than the euro ens. No classic signals on the 2 week horizon yet. Hard to complain or worry considering what's happened so far this winter. true, but I think we'll all find a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For what has been a supposedly "hostile" pattern this sure has felt more like winter than recent years...numbers are overrated...it's all about perception Actually, I wrote one the 23rd that the pattern for the 1st week of January was a pretty good one with above climo chance of getting an inch at DC and we could have the coldest temps in awhile as the AO went negative, the PNA positive and the epo ebing negative. The coming pattern for mid Jan has a different look at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Correction: it's something that is always talked about with a lack of knowledge and ALWAYS happens. Many people are ill-informed about the stratosphere and so it has built a bad reputation with wx enthusiasts. You're correct, of course, but Bob hit the nail on the head with this: I agree here. It's way over my head so I never talk about it. It seems to be used all too often as a crutch because the pattern sux and somebody is searching for the magic bullet. I don't question its significance but I only read posts from those well versed in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Actually, I wrote one the 23rd that the pattern for the 1st week of January was a pretty good one with above climo chance of getting an inch at DC and we could have the coldest temps in awhile as the AO went negative, the PNA positive and the epo ebing negative. The coming pattern for mid Jan has a different look at least for now. Yes, you and several other people in LR who are not out to sell to the weenies indicated that early January would be cold. This period was no surprise and you can see our posts from nearly a month ago indicating the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 You're correct, of course, but Bob hit the nail on the head with this: I agree with you and Bob that ill-informed mets use the stratosphere to hype a pattern change beyond 10 days. The funny this is: it is usually something within the troposphere that causes our cold but makes an impression on the stratosphere. It's sometimes a red herring. Thinking back to October-November, there were several social media superstars suggesting "SSW coming, major Arctic Air." But the cold was going to come for other reasons and that was NO SSW. They never happen in the autumn, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ok guys, what are we tracking next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ok guys, what are we tracking next? Reasons to believe that we won't torch too bad after next week. Or fropa flurries monday and maybe an accidental overrunning inch thurs-fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ok guys, what are we tracking next? After the really cold jolt, it's a secret until my article comes out. I will give you a hint.....Ji won't like it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ok guys, what are we tracking next? Monday arctic frontal snows dang Wunderground hasn't been updating the Euro maps lately....anyone have any indication on whether it is showing what the GFS has been advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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