Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Delay that wave a little, have that arctic boundary sag a bit further south and you might get a bigger event. I'm not writing anything totally off but I don't see much potential from everything I've looked at. This gfs run is the best so far. Euro wants to wash our cars. We'll see as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe. I took a second look and it would be more like a line squall kinda deal. 1" or so. We used to get those back in the 70's and 80's when arctic air came around more often. IMO- if any slp forms south on the front it will go west and we're wet. I'm kinda glad the wound up rainer idea is gone. Not sure how this could evolve into "an event" given the setup. But I like this gfs run. I was just thinking the same thing about how this may turn into a good old fashioned arctic blast ushered in by a true squall line.The kind where the sky gets real dark and 15 minute white out follows. Look like the euro might be abandoning the idea of a wound up storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm not writing anything totally off but I don't see much potential from everything I've looked at. This gfs run is the best so far. Euro wants to wash our cars. We'll see as we go forward. it's done that all year with storms n this range but they all end up being more progressive Euro will come around to GFS fast flow event, you watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS more interesting with early Monday chances with the arctic FROPA. Also has the low pass about right overhead on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS more interesting with early Monday chances with the arctic FROPA. Also has the low pass about right overhead on Sunday. Yup, was just about to post about that. has some frontal snows. Maybe that's the one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS more interesting with early Monday chances with the arctic FROPA. Also has the low pass about right overhead on Sunday. It's been playing with that wave quite a bit. Euro is dead set on a cutter/runner. It's a pretty bad look @ h5 for a jumper but I like the thought of a quick inch squall line with fropo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS just sucked me into next Thursday also. 3 1-2" events in a week. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS just sucked me into next Thursday also. 3 1-2" events in a week. Book it. I just posted in banter because we haven't hit short leads yet. Thread before midnight though... Jokes aside, gfs has been showing overrunning potential in that time frame. Flat flow under the pv but a threat is a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Told ya Bob. Nah just joking. I think it's still hard to say how the early week stuff plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GEFS rebuilds the -EPO/-AO combination late in the run. Any thaw looks transient and probably comes in the form of warm ups ahead of a cutter or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GEFS rebuilds the -EPO/-AO combination late in the run. Any thaw looks transient and probably comes in the form of warm ups ahead of a cutter or two. We need the euro to agree. It's so ugly I can't even look at it without having a panic attack. It would make sense though. Big warm signals have muted since Nov. No reason to think otherwise until it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Severe - NAO on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sooo euro show anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That was really fun. On the to the next one? Chance next Monday? Chance end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 so when we doing this again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Should get some light accums with the arctic front. Rain likely before that. Could be some ice problems depending on how quick temps drop and if it snows. The next system around the 9-10th could be a light event of some kind. Cold air is retreating and hp moving off the coast so it's challenging. Who knows after that. Euro wants to torch us. Gfs wants the wc ridge to save us. If we do get a wc ridge then we can score another ns vort. Nothing can go wrong with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We've been hearing all about this major "stratospheric warming" event...I don't know what it means, but could it translate into a cold/snowy late Jan/ early Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro looks like we break out the sunscreen and swimming trunks mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We've been hearing all about this major "stratospheric warming" event...I don't know what it means, but could it translate into a cold/snowy late Jan/ early Feb? It's something that's always talked about but never actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro looks like we break out the sunscreen and swimming trunks mid-month Awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro looks like we break out the sunscreen and swimming trunks mid-month Ensembles are starting to back away from a stable crap pattern. Gefs is insistent at an aleution low / +PNA and possible -epo reload. We'll see how it goes. My guess is a 3-5 day aob period starting around the 12th. Both ensembles showing a trough axis in the center of the country, unfavorable pv location, and ridging along the east. These types of patterns have been advertised at long leads several times since November but have had a hard time materializing into stable warmth. ATTM I would say we won't have a problem cooling down after a warmer period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ensembles are starting to back away from a stable crap pattern. Gefs is insistent at an aleution low / +PNA and possible -epo reload. We'll see how it goes. My guess is a 3-5 day aob period starting around the 12th. Both ensembles showing a trough axis in the center of the country, unfavorable pv location, and ridging along the east. These types of patterns have been advertised at long leads several times since November but have had a hard time materializing into stable warmth. ATTM I would say we won't have a problem cooling down after a warmer period. yea...i could see us getting wintry again after January 20th or so. the 10th through 16th look like a good time to reset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the GEFS and the euro ensembles look a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the GEFS and the euro ensembles look a little different They've been at odds for days handing the pac. Euro wants to paint low heights all over AK and kinda flood the whole country with warmth. GEFS want's to end the massacre fairly quickly with ridging in the west in response to the aleutian low fairly quickly. Still no sign of a real -nao..... I'll ride yesterday's 18z gfs for now. GEFS is consistent with the overall winter pattern so I think if I was forced to choose I'll go with the gefs. Persistence is hard to break sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 They've been at odds for days handing the pac. Euro wants to paint low heights all over AK and kinda flood the whole country with warmth. GEFS want's to end the massacre fairly quickly with ridging in the west in response to the aleutian low fairly quickly. Still no sign of a real -nao..... I'll ride yesterday's 18z gfs for now. GEFS is consistent with the overall winter pattern so I think if I was forced to choose I'll go with the gefs. Persistence is hard to break sometimes. i know the euro operational is usually better than the GFS but is their proof that the euro ensembles are much better than GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the NAM is not that torchy on Sunday. We could actually keep our snowpack before the next cold rolls in. NAM says JYO dosent go past 34-35 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 i know the euro operational is usually better than the GFS but is their proof that the euro ensembles are much better than GEFS? Euro is higher resolution and they have more members so they are probably better overall. Neither can be used with confidence in the d11-15 timeframe. I don't mind warmups at all as long as things remain progressive. We'll see how things look early next week. A period of aoa after the arctic outbreak seems likely. What happens after is pretty unknown. You would have to think at some point between the last 10 days of Jan through Feb that we get a real -nao. It's been an elusive b!tch for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro is higher resolution and they have more members so they are probably better overall. Neither can be used with confidence in the d11-15 timeframe. I don't mind warmups at all as long as things remain progressive. We'll see how things look early next week. A period of aoa after the arctic outbreak seems likely. What happens after is pretty unknown. You would have to think at some point between the last 10 days of Jan through Feb that we get a real -nao. It's been an elusive b!tch for a long time now. I checked the 720 hour Euro and not one noreaster. Most storms were Apps runners such as this from the 516:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro is higher resolution and they have more members so they are probably better overall. Neither can be used with confidence in the d11-15 timeframe. I don't mind warmups at all as long as things remain progressive. We'll see how things look early next week. A period of aoa after the arctic outbreak seems likely. What happens after is pretty unknown. You would have to think at some point between the last 10 days of Jan through Feb that we get a real -nao. It's been an elusive b!tch for a long time now. Yeah, the -NAO has certainly been elusive, let's hope that changes! There was mention of a stratospheric warming either occurring now or forecast to. I know it's not a hard-set correlation, but if that's true with the SSW, perhaps that's a sign we can get blocking toward late January. Are the Euro ensembles at odds with the GEFS, or its own deterministic? Both the GFS oper and GEFS have been pretty emphatic about re-building the west coast ridge and trough in the east with colder here later in its run for awhile now (we're talking around the 18th or there about). The Euro and GFS have been similar to each other in forecasting a moderating pattern after late next week, though to what degree might be different. I sure hope we end up "going back" somewhat quickly and not get stuck in a relative torch or "blah" pattern for weeks on end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For what has been a supposedly "hostile" pattern this sure has felt more like winter than recent years...numbers are overrated...it's all about perception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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