wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's why they pay him The big bucks.TWC has a monthy quota he has to fill ... seriously though, I wouldn't doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles have the pv centered n of hudson and a furnace in the eastern half of the country from the 10th-14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles have the pv centered n of hudson and a furnace in the eastern half of the country from the 10th-14th. So you are saying we need to cash in now or winter is over. Got it. I will alert Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So you are saying we need to cash in now or winter is over. Got it. I will alert Ji. Just part of the variability expected until if/when we actually get real and stable blocking. December was a good lesson in pac driven only cold. This time is better because of the ao cooperating somewhat and the nao not fighting so hard. But if it all relaxes and no atl cooperation, we can expect a warm spell. And IMO it won't last long either IF it even happens. Just stating what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You know I was just having a light moment, Bob. It will probably be deleted in short order (as it maybe should be)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You know I was just having a light moment, Bob. It will probably be deleted in short order (as it maybe should be)... I know you were. The new crew seems neurotic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 5-7th definitely a period to watch. 18z gefs looks better than 12z. Both runs showed coastal and miller b solutions. Only 1-2 members show a big inland storm. Over half of the 12z euro ens members show measurable snow in DC during that period. Mean is around 2". My original thoughts of a weak ns vort passing under us are changing. IMO- odds favor a mixed event if anything substantial forms but the period is very interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 5-7th definitely a period to watch. 18z gefs looks better than 12z. Both runs showed coastal and miller b solutions. Only 1-2 members show a big inland storm. Over half of the 12z euro ens members show measurable snow in DC during that period. Mean is around 2". My original thoughts of a weak ns vort passing under us are changing. IMO- odds favor a mixed event if anything substantial forms but the period is very interesting nonetheless. What did the arctic outbreak look like on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good golly that Jan 6 storm on the Euro. Total apps runner BOMB. Polar vortex in MI pushing -30°C 850mb temps down into St. Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good golly that Jan 6 storm on the Euro. Total apps runner BOMB. Polar vortex in MI pushing -30°C 850mb temps down into St. Louis Even dumps a little snow on us with the backlash. Honestly, if a mid 950s low in upstate ny verifies I could care less if it rains. That's a beast. Well have sub zero wind chills in the wake. I expected the euro to dump the mega low solution but it's still there. Many doubts but would be cool as heck to witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even dumps a little snow on us with the backlash. Honestly, if a mid 950s low in upstate ny verifies I could care less if it rains. That's a beast. Well have sub zero wind chills in the wake. I expected the euro to dump the mega low solution but it's still there. Many doubts but would be cool as heck to witness There was a storm in Early March 99 where it was an app runner-- at one point I was 70 with a Thunderstorm in LYH while Blacksburg and the NRV was snow and 20's.. they had 6-10 inches. A second band of snow formed and we had a quick 1-2 inches once it was well to our north. I think HGR got 6+. With an arctic front barreling in behind it, I think the wrap around is a viable option simply because it's going to ring out all the available moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There was a storm in Early March 99 where it was an app runner-- at one point I was 70 with a Thunderstorm in LYH while Blacksburg and the NRV was snow and 20's.. they had 6-10 inches. A second band of snow formed and we had a quick 1-2 inches once it was well to our north. I think HGR got 6+. With an arctic front barreling in behind it, I think the wrap around is a viable option simply because it's going to ring out all the available moisture. Storm that big and deep lp center that close to the N would prob produce a little on the back. And everything would freeze up solid verbatim. Euro is way out on it's own so far though. It does have ensemble support for a decent precip producer ( a good # of members include snow). There seems to be growing consensus of some sort of storm in the 6-7 time frame. Hard to say how it shakes out. Just a period worth watching. Euro ensemble mean showing a jan thaw has held for 2 runs now. PV retreats north of hudson and trough axis moves west so we end up ridging. Pretty warm look for the eastern 3rd of the country. I'm not too worried about it though. Warmth (and cold) has been transient all season. No reason to think that stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bob...what's the approximate timing of the Euro's thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bob...what's the approximate timing of the Euro's thaw? 11th-15th and beyond. It's suspect though. Prob not worth reading into that much for another 5 days or so. It could go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 11th-15th and beyond. It's suspect though. Prob not worth reading into that much for another 5 days or so. It could go poof. Thanks. I'll be down south for a week starting on the 15th, so I'd love to see the SE ridge flex its muscle for a bit. I'd feel bad for everyone up here, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 11th-15th and beyond. It's suspect though. Prob not worth reading into that much for another 5 days or so. It could go poof. The euro in that time frame has a scarey look as it has lower than normal heights over AK for the 5 day period and above normal to the south of that....a positive epo look, something we haven't had yet this winter. The superens mean still keeps the neg EPO going at that time range. Let's hope it is right. The GEFS would argue cold and warm interspersed, the euro ens mean would argue that the country could go warm especially if the AO goes back to positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro in that time frame has a scarey look as it has lower than normal heights over AK for the 5 day period and above normal to the south of that....a positive epo look, something we haven't had yet this winter. The superens mean still keeps the neg EPO going at that time range. Let's hope it is right. The GEFS would argue cold and warm interspersed, the euro ens mean would argue that the country could go warm especially if the AO goes back to positive. Euro ens and gefs are definitely at odd with the pac mid month. Gefs gets and aleutian low cranking and builds heights in front over the goa and west coast. This would keep us in a season pattern but not super cold and no blocking so stormtrack to the nw. Euro want's you to golf. Every long lead relaxed warm spell has been tapered. This applies to both models. Persistence until proven otherwise I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The operational Euro and GFS now have a positive epo at the end of the 10 day period and the latest forecast of the epo is for it to shift positive. That would be a pattern changer if true. Would usher in an above average period if the NAO stays positive. Below is the forecast, the euro ens supports the same idea. A positive epo and positive NOA would shut off the cold for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z gefs pointing toward a warmup d11-15 but also shows early signs of reloading the -epo and cold anoms building in western canada. I think expecting a thaw of some duration mid month is a good call overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bob have you given up on Sun -Mon? Looks like a potentially interesting combination of events with tricky timing of the cold air push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bob have you given up on Sun -Mon? Looks like a potentially interesting combination of events with tricky timing of the cold air push. Yes, me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bob have you given up on Sun -Mon? Looks like a potentially interesting combination of events with tricky timing of the cold air push. West track written all over it verbatim at this time. Zero semblance of any block or 50/50. Best we can hope for is the pv to be further east. I'm not interested unless h5 improves quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 West track written all over it verbatim at this time. Zero semblance of any block or 50/50. Best we can hope for is the pv to be further east. I'm not interested unless h5 improves quite a bit. Well. We always have 'next'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 West track written all over it verbatim at this time. Zero semblance of any block or 50/50. Best we can hope for is the pv to be further east. I'm not interested unless h5 improves quite a bit. tonight's NAM seems to turn it into an arctic front with snows...even us, albeit light no slp in sight (yes, I know, it's the 84 hr NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 tonight's NAM seems to turn it into an arctic front with snows...even us, albeit light no slp in sight (yes, I know, it's the 84 hr NAM) That's what I was thinking it might transition to. Where and when that front is will be a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS looking a little interesting monday am. Maybe some high ratio snow showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS looking a little interesting monday am. Maybe some high ratio snow showers? It drops 1-2" with the arctic front verbatim. Mountains will rob some for sure if it shakes out like that but even 1" would help score some low temps we haven't seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It drops 1-2" with the arctic front verbatim. Mountains will rob some for sure if it shakes out like that but even 1" would help score some low temps we haven't seen in years. and we've got plenty of time for it to continue to trend to a snowier solution, which is trend now with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 and we've got plenty of time for it to continue to trend to a snowier solution, which is trend now with this Maybe. I took a second look and it would be more like a line squall kinda deal. 1" or so. We used to get those back in the 70's and 80's when arctic air came around more often. IMO- if any slp forms south on the front it will go west and we're wet. I'm kinda glad the wound up rainer idea is gone. Not sure how this could evolve into "an event" given the setup. But I like this gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe. I took a second look and it would be more like a line squall kinda deal. 1" or so. We used to get those back in the 70's and 80's when arctic air came around more often. IMO- if any slp forms south on the front it will go west and we're wet. I'm kinda glad the wound up rainer idea is gone. Not sure how this could evolve into "an event" given the setup. But I like this gfs run. Delay that wave a little, have that arctic boundary sag a bit further south and you might get a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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