snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Whatever happened to the robotic snow machine guy anyways. SO, what the heck happened on the 12Z GFS? Why did it jump? Is it a fluke? I am thinking fluke now and Dr No will set us straight. My question is, what did it see today and now that it missed before? northern stream is slower, digs deeper and phases earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT says this run is a fluke, typical GFS bias. I'm out. This is possibly the most important analysis for us in the past three years... "**** There is no meteorological reason for the GFS model to shift this Low this far to the south.**" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The northern stream looks pretty nasty. My rule is that always screws us. Maybe some flurries with the front. I'll pm you pics of my 2" of cold smoke on Sunday. Jokes aside, this is the first look we've had with the pv far enough south to push northern stream energy below us instead of a lakes low parade. I have no idea if the gfs is sober. Just callin it like I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll pm you pics of my 2" of cold smoke on Sunday. Jokes aside, this is the first look we've had with the pv far enough south to push northern stream energy below us instead of a lakes low parade. I have no idea if the gfs is sober. Just callin it like I see it. The second vort behind the weak pos positively tilted one might be something.. or totally gone next run. My problem with the northern stream when it's fast and filled with waves is that these little impulses tend to change day to day. It might be gone on 18z.. or a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The second vort behind the weak pos positively tilted one might be something.. or totally gone next run. My problem with the northern stream when it's fast and filled with waves is that these little impulses tend to change day to day. It might be gone on 18z.. or a hecs. NS is appealing at times because of that. Energy has little resolution at medium leads. I just like the pv placement going into the weekend. It's been a while since a clipper passed through central/southern va and popped a surface low east of the blue ridge. Not an ideal setup obviously but I can envision it. I'm not so much worried about individual pieces of energy as I'm interested in the h5 flow with some amp in front. Could be nothing. Could be something. I like to sleuth rather than go verbatim. Easier on the nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good thing the Canadian sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAVGEM is sorta in our camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Classic DT. Hangs on to the southern option for this storm until the models shift north, and then when they shift back south he bashes them and pretends like he was always on-board with the northern solution. He can now claim victory no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAVGEM is sorta in our camp nav_precip_mslp_east_15.png Is this enough for model consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good thing the Canadian sucks. cmc_precip_mslp_east_15.png NAVGEM is sorta in our camp nav_precip_mslp_east_15.png Ukmet is pretty far south as well from what I can see, but I think it has been for several runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well, 12z gefs show some support for the op. These are just some of them. There are others with a low off obx too. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well, 12z gefs show some support for the op. These are just some of them. There are others with a low off obx too. heh 12enssupport.JPG Was going to comment on that too Bob. Decent support there for the latest op solution. In fact that's the best support it's had for any solution so far.The UKMET looks way south. Don't have good maps but it looks like a complete whiff for the ne. It has it's only low on the fla panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GEFS have a lot of snowy solutions. All of the GEFS members I see on Ewall are much farther south with the primary. Still several dryslot-y members in there, which is the obvious issue with a Miller-B type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GEFS have a lot of snowy solutions. All of the GEFS members I see on Ewall are much farther south with the primary. Still several dryslot-y members in there, which is the obvious issue with a Miller-B type scenario. And if you go on down the line there is some early support for the sun-mon storm..... has the world tilted or are there 2 hands on the rug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GEFS have a lot of snowy solutions. All of the GEFS members I see on Ewall are much farther south with the primary. Still several dryslot-y members in there, which is the obvious issue with a Miller-B type scenario. You mentioned the UKMET being south. You're right it has been there and is now even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well, 12z gefs show some support for the op. These are just some of them. There are others with a low off obx too. heh 12enssupport.JPG Has Dr. No come out yet? Usually he rains on everyone's parade after the most realistic/ conservative weenies get sucked in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GEFS have a lot of snowy solutions. All of the GEFS members I see on Ewall are much farther south with the primary. Still several dryslot-y members in there, which is the obvious issue with a Miller-B type scenario. More than half now have an accum snow solution. Hard to ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And if you go on down the line there is some early support for the sun-mon storm..... has the world tilted or are there 2 hands on the rug? It had good support on that yesterday too. But, I'm going back to the 5 day rule so I'll just go off of your play by play on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Has Dr. No come out yet? Usually he rains on everyone's parade after the most realistic/ conservative weenies get sucked in....About 30 minutes till hope is crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It had good support on that yesterday too. But, I'm going back to the 5 day rule so I'll just go off of your play by play on that one. I'm mostly just going off pattern recognition. Nothing is resolved. Just a window. could be a rainy front, dry, overunning, or weak low with a good track. GFS op opened my eyes a bit with abundant cold. It's anyone's guess really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 More than half now have an accum snow solution. Hard to ignore that. What did the Euro ensembles show at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 More than half now have an accum snow solution. Hard to ignore that. IMO it was hard to ignore that the op solutions the past few days only had mediocre support. I can't see the euro ens so I wonder did its runs have support on its ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IMO it was hard to ignore that the op solutions the past few days only had mediocre support. I can't see the euro ens so I wonder did its runs have support on its ens. im hoping the euro will follow the trend , euro used to be king but lately it seems like its always behind a step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 About 30 minutes till hope is crushed Ha ha... I am talking about the Human Doctor no... are you talking about the Euro? Either way one of the two is gonna crush us. I sure hope not. This is Fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 its amazing how quickly the models can change lol With a complex Miller B things can change a lot between runs. That means this solution could be gone by 18Z, hence the heavy use of ensembles to reduce the uncertainty a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What did the Euro ensembles show at 0z? I only get a splatter plot with the members. Enough with an accum snow solution to not ingore. I think matt has better stuff @ SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 About 30 minutes till hope is crushed This is when the Euro usually gets even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Was going to comment on that too Bob. Decent support there for the latest op solution. In fact that's the best support it's had for any solution so far. The UKMET looks way south. Don't have good maps but it looks like a complete whiff for the ne. It has it's only low on the fla panhandle the GGEM is a complete miss to for the MA and NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is when the Euro usually gets even worse. This run will be crushing one way or another. 60% whiff, 40% HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As an acutal event draws closer can we have a sub forum that deals with the event and does not permit puss whining, winter over, flop every run claim victory no matter what, snark-a-drama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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