aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 me and Leesburg get screwed but I am more intersted in ending this horrible DCA streak What's the qpf on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 sucks to be the western dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I would take the 0.25-0.5 range in DC anytime. I'll set that as my goal and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I give this run 0.5% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 me and Leesburg get screwed but I am more intersted in ending this horrible DCA streak Don't worry. If the dual low verifies it will blow up enough to move the precip max to my n-w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the qpf on this run? 3-4 inches for me..about 3 inches for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 850 dance is still fraught with peril. Great run but risk of dryslot / fringe hell is high. Absolutely. Miller-B's always have a brutal cutoff somewhere. This GFS run has a little more of a hybrid A/B scenario given the weaker southern stream vort that gets phased in with the northern stream. But this run shows the deform band essentially forming overhead, which could easily screw someone 50 miles +/- of an area that gets buried. Radar hallucinations/suicides would be off the charts if this type of scenario came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 sucks to be the western dudes. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_37.png Need a couple of runs further south, then wait for the N/W trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 sucks to be the western dudes. WxBell snow maps always hate coastal Calvert county. Poor Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 sucks to be the western dudes. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_37.png Fringed as usual....lol...leesburg is in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If the Euro comes through, add a Gatling gun. I think this excitement will be fleeting and the Euro will bring us back to reality. I'm becoming interested in next weekend now. Check out h5 loops. Pv displaced far enough south with vorts passing under us.... You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If the Euro comes through, add a Gatling gun. I think this excitement will be fleeting and the Euro will bring us back to reality. the euro last night actually had me wondering when it increased our qpf from .05 to .65....although it was still warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm becoming interested in next weekend now. Check out h5 loops. Pv displaced far enough south with vorts passing under us.... You heard it here first. the threat that i started a thread on last night only to have it be deleted by Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 YOu guys know this is a dual low set up..right? (via GFS) 1004 low WELL east of HAT and a second one forms as it scoots east, so there is a 996 OTS while the 998 is near HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the threat that i started a thread on last night only to have it be deleted by Ian? Not out that far yet. I see potential for a cold light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this is my favorite image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I really like how you present synoptics in layman's terms. Of all the MA non red-tagger SMEs, you do a good job of being objective and (most of the time) avoiding ego and attitude towards those less familiar with meteorology. Snow/zwyts always seems to be angry/have a chip on his shoulder and Ian is usually tired or more concerned with snark than clear headed analysis. lol...I've gotten better.. most people aren't interested in meteorology..they want you to tell them it is going to snow in their backyard, and it is transparent 100% of the time no matter how deftly they think they phrase the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 FYI The GFS modeled solution doesn't happen here..the dryslot will be further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this is my favorite image We need to move away from the duel low.. would be a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 FYI The GFS modeled solution doesn't happen here..the dryslot will be further east... So what you're saying is that the dry slot that is currently west of ji's house would really be straight up on top of him? I'm just asking for Ji Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This might be better suited to the banter thread, but how far off is the current gfs from a full phase? And I'm not implying or weenie-ing that it's a possibility. I'm just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the GFS is a very cold run except for the warm up at the very end when it senses a storm a nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can't speak for the 1st, but the 2nd is because I've been gone for 5 days and was starting to get lots of snark before I left about removing banter in this thread. Can't ever make everyone happy. Don't you always say that adults should be able to moderate themselves and mods aren't necessary? Well, if the euro agrees with the gfs then I vote drop the hammer. I'm impatiently awaiting Wes' first post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can't speak for the 1st, but the 2nd is because I've been gone for 5 days and was starting to get lots of snark before I left about removing banter in this thread. Can't ever make everyone happy. Don't you always say that adults should be able to moderate themselves and mods aren't necessary? yeah...I actually kind of like it....I just thought it was funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, and I'll admit I'm one of the biggest complainers about that but yesterday was awful. Well remember that next time I remove some precious sarcastic responses in the interests of keeping the discussion thread focused. Well, if the euro agrees with the gfs then I vote drop the hammer. I'm impatiently awaiting Wes' first post of the day. Honestly, given that any possible storm is only ~4 days away, if the Euro goes big, I'd rather we split out a new thread for it. Next week's possible cold blast and your weekend storm would leave enough to discuss in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's even better about the GFS is that the entire storm happens when sfc temps are in the mid to lower 20's. Very good ratios (15:1 - 20:1) towards the end. The next night is under clear skies with artic dry air and lows in the low 0's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 sucks to be the western dudes. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_37.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Whatever happened to the robotic snow machine guy anyways. SO, what the heck happened on the 12Z GFS? Why did it jump? Is it a fluke? I am thinking fluke now and Dr No will set us straight. My question is, what did it see today and now that it missed before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well remember that next time I remove some precious sarcastic responses in the interests of keeping the discussion thread focused. Honestly, given that any possible storm is only ~4 days away, if the Euro goes big, I'd rather we split out a new thread for it. Next week's possible cold blast and your weekend storm would leave enough to discuss in here. Fair enough. If the gfs verifies even with some moderation people will be skating on local ponds. I love that stuff. The gfs has the look of a ma special modest event next weekend. Enough amplification in front of the pv to pop a surface low south of us. It would be weak but fun. Total speculation but I think you know where I'm coming from. Low low confidence given the new look we are being shown. Just pointing put possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fair enough. If the gfs verifies even with some moderation people will be skating on local ponds. I love that stuff. The gfs has the look of a ma special modest event next weekend. Enough amplification in front of the pv to pop a surface low south of us. It would be weak but fun. Total speculation but I think you know where I'm coming from. Low low confidence given the new look we are being shown. Just pointing put possibilities. The northern stream looks pretty nasty. My rule is that always screws us. Maybe some flurries with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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