wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS more amped this run in a step towards last night's euro. 6z was slightly more amped than the 0z and this is slightly more amped than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good answers already. Very simple rule of thumb is just look at 850 panels. If the 850 drives north of our latitude we are in trouble. Plain and simple. Counter clockwise flow around the low draws warm air at the surface and mid-levels. Being to the se of an 850 is a terrible snow signature. Once this happens we are kinda screwed unless a secondary off the coast takes over and crashes thermals. Unless there is a good alt block like -nao or 50/50 low, 9 times out of 10 the secondary low is too little too late. Dry slot and lack of cold is a function of 850 low placement. Look how well central pa does with snow from the primary. That would be us if the low tracked through tn or ky. I really like how you present synoptics in layman's terms. Of all the MA non red-tagger SMEs, you do a good job of being objective and (most of the time) avoiding ego and attitude towards those less familiar with meteorology. Snow/zwyts always seems to be angry/have a chip on his shoulder and Ian is usually tired or more concerned with snark than clear headed analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS more amped this run in a step towards last night's euro. 6z was slightly more amped than the 0z and this is slightly more amped than that. Different and a step toward what some of its ensembles showed. Enough to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dry slot of death on the 12z. Precip is light all over though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The best case here is probably we get dragged back in for a late sucker punch. I'm sure most of us will fall for it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's so close to the original euro that got us fired up. So close (if memory serves) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Clipper to late ots with massive HP to north. I told you guys: I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sub 1k off obx. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The best case here is probably we get dragged back in for a late sucker punch. I'm sure most of us will fall for it though. I usually feel dumb in the end, but I just can't give up as long as there's a possibility. We need this to be just a tad slower and a little deeper at 500. I think we can get there. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Clipper to late ots with massive HP to north. I told you guys:So did I. LOL I'm sure this will draw laughs, but I can take it. Several GFS members show a decent solution (two with the euro solution (ish) from the other day). They are definitely a bit better than at 12z. No surrender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks good for DC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS is about the best possible scenario for us. Coastal low crashes the heights and a new 850 low spins up offshore in time to snow us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS is about the best possible scenario for us. Coastal low crashes the heights and a new 850 low spins up offshore in time to snow us. If the euro didn't move towards this last night I wouldnt remotely buy in. I'm too conditioned to fail that I prob won't buy in until it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 gets 0.5 qpf into DC metro, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Baroclinic zone FTW . Models finally catching on. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ukmet for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS is about the best possible scenario for us. Coastal low crashes the heights and a new 850 low spins up offshore in time to snow us. A new 850 was the very thing Wes mentioned a couple days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If the euro didn't move towards this last night I wouldnt remotely buy in. I'm too conditioned to fail that I prob won't buy in until it shuts off. At this stage in the game, I'd still weigh the ensembles more than an Op run, but it's sort of on the border time-wise when ensembles vs. Op has the advantage. I wonder what DT will say now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this stage in the game, I'd still weigh the ensembles more than an Op run, but it's sort of on the border time-wise when ensembles vs. Op has the advantage. I wonder what DT will say now... ***********ALEEETTTTTTT************** i wil nott hav to screww the pooch aftr all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Cant wait to see the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z gfs and 0z euro are good examples that these and all prior model runs are simply numerically and parameter driven computer simulations...these are trending in a positive direction for local snow, but it's usually not a great thing to get too attached to a "bad" or "great" model run 72/96 hours before an event if small adjustments in numerical inputs and parameters lead to a vastly different simulated output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm sure we'd all lock this in now if we could. The 09Z SREFs made a move in this direction (8 out of 21 give 0.1+) but still have a relative snow hole in the means over DC. Will be interesting to see what the gfs ens/euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's quite a shift by the GFS, I have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this stage in the game, I'd still weigh the ensembles more than an Op run, but it's sort of on the border time-wise when ensembles vs. Op has the advantage. I wonder what DT will say now... The 850 dance is still fraught with peril. Great run but risk of dryslot / fringe hell is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z gfs and 0z euro are good examples that these and all prior model runs are simply numerically and parameter driven computer simulations...these are trending in a positive direction for local snow, but it's usually not a great thing to get too attached to a "bad" or "great" model run 72/96 hours before an event if small adjustments in numerical inputs and parameters lead to a vastly different simulated output. But here is the thing... If you ever want to see a trend.. this has to be "go-time"... the Globals are gonna lock in on something fairly soon... any trend at this point I will take. Can't wait til the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even if the euro comes in similar I vote for no thread till tomorrow. These setups are delicate. Getting the rug pulled twice wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 me and Leesburg get screwed but I am more intersted in ending this horrible DCA streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ***********ALEEETTTTTTT************** i wil nott hav to screww the pooch aftr all. I wrote something about this in the Banter thread... Dude did a long drawn-out retraction piece last night. Now normal people would wait... til at least the euro.. to do an "alert"... but he cant contain himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even if the euro comes in similar I vote for no thread till tomorrow. These setups are delicate. Getting the rug pulled twice wouldn't surprise me at all. We don't need a thread until at least Wed, if there's even a need by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 me and Leesburg get screwed but I am more intersted in ending this horrible DCA streak We need it to dig even more to the west. It all happens a little late for us. But, we ain't dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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