ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Days like today make me wish i hated weather and sports. The agony always outweighs the victory. True but after the SB victory and all the players they lost because of their cap situation i was not expecting much. So the let down is much less than it usually is. Maybe by some grace of G-D the models will get better tomorrow and i can bump troll the heck out of Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 True but after the SB victory and all the players they lost because of their cap situation i was not expecting much. So the let down is much less than it usually is. Maybe by some grace of G-D the models will get better tomorrow and i can bump troll the heck out of Ian. Big off-season for us but I think we will be fine. Finishing 3rd will ease the schedule as well. On a weather note, The euro goes nuts with the arctic cold next week after the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy crap euro digs HARD. Only thing here that's wrong is temps and a slightly inland track. Yeah, ok that's a lot but at least it's wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like euro shows snow n and w jan 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy crap euro digs HARD. Only thing here that's wrong is temps and a slightly inland track. Yeah, ok that's a lot but at least it's wet. Pretty wild run all the way through 240. It is advertising next tuesday as one of the coldest days we've ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If I could just lock in the euro now. That would be great. Euro back ends all of us and bombs another storm of the same MECS calliber at 180hrs followed by -25°C 850mb Cold for MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If I could just lock in the euro now. That would be great. Euro back ends all of us and bombs another storm of the same MECS calliber at 180hrs followed by -25°C 850mb Cold for MD.id like it a bit to the East and bombing to the south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't know how the Euro differs from its previous run, but it doesn't look miles away from "possible" for Thursday. Just a little further south would help. Still not great consistency on the gfs ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If I could just lock in the euro now. That would be great. Euro back ends all of us and bombs another storm of the same MECS calliber at 180hrs followed by -25°C 850mb Cold for MD. The last part of your paragraph is the proof of that solution's impossibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This map can bring a grown man to tears: lol.... it's like the EURO knows exactly where to find 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam really digging? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C700_rh_ht%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C700_rh_ht%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=&scrollx=228&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam really digging? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C700_rh_ht%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C700_rh_ht%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=&scrollx=228&scrolly=0 We usually do well when the 850 low is over Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro was better enough to watch it probably. Though it's also a little unbelievable with how quick it bombs the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point, is it more a lack of cold air then we thought we previously had, or are we being dry slotted? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point, is it more a lack of cold air then we thought we previously had, or are we being dry slotted? Or both? The OH valley low warms us too much before the secondary. Though this Euro has a 992 near the Va capes. Could be enough for the BWI to PHL folks on the backside as is at least for some mood flakes+... these things tend to get going in that corridor. If it trended at all more it would be somewhat interesting. I think it's probably overdone but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point, is it more a lack of cold air then we thought we previously had, or are we being dry slotted? Or both? The storm is a "Miller-B" type storm. This is a type of storm that develops once the upper-level energy in the atmosphere reaches the coast it initiates rapid development and then moves northward along the coast. For these types of storms to give us precip, we need that upper level energy to pass to our south sufficiently so we're in the developing region of precip. Usually Miller-B's leave us high and dry while giving folks to our north lots of snow. They usually have a very sharp southern cutoff of heavy precip. We CAN get significant snow from Miller-B's (Feb 10, 2010 being a great example), but not typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Was Feb 2006 a miller b? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Was Feb 2006 a miller b? It was primarily a northern stream system, so I think you could probably classify it as a Miller-B. But it did have a southern stream vort that was initiating cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast as the northern stream was digging in, so a bit of a hybrid perhaps. The reanalysis shows the pattern well: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It was primarily a northern stream system, so I think you could probably classify it as a Miller-B. But it did have a southern stream vort that was initiating cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast as the northern stream was digging in, so a bit of a hybrid perhaps. The reanalysis shows the pattern well: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006.html Thanks. I was looking at this site too. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2006&month=2&day=11&hour=0&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That Euro snowmap is the ultimate kick in the groin. And it's also torture because it gives you just a sliver of hope, although you know in the back of your mind that this is over. Cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 That Euro snowmap is the ultimate kick in the groin. And it's also torture because it gives you just a sliver of hope, although you know in the back of your mind that this is over. Cruel. Its not over until Thursday. There is a sliver of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good answers already. Very simple rule of thumb is just look at 850 panels. If the 850 drives north of our latitude we are in trouble. Plain and simple. Counter clockwise flow around the low draws warm air at the surface and mid-levels. Being to the se of an 850 is a terrible snow signature. Once this happens we are kinda screwed unless a secondary off the coast takes over and crashes thermals. Unless there is a good alt block like -nao or 50/50 low, 9 times out of 10 the secondary low is too little too late. Dry slot and lack of cold is a function of 850 low placement. Look how well central pa does with snow from the primary. That would be us if the low tracked through tn or ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its not over until Thursday. There is a sliver of hope. If we were ever in a foxhole together and there was incoming fire and mortar shells raining down on us, with enemy troops closing in from all sides, and we had a handgun left for defense, I'd want you there beside me. You'd tell me there was a sliver of hope and that we were gonna make it out alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good answers already. Very simple rule of thumb is just look at 850 panels. If the 850 drives north of our latitude we are in trouble. Plain and simple. Counter clockwise flow around the low draws warm air at the surface and mid-levels. Being to the se of an 850 is a terrible snow signature. Once this happens we are kinda screwed unless a secondary off the coast takes over and crashes thermals. Unless there is a good alt block like -nap or 50/50 low, 9 times out of 10 the secondary low is too little too late. Dry slot and lack of cold is a function of 850 low placement. Look how well central pa does with snow from the primary. That would be us if the low tracked through tn or ky. Which you can see very clearly on the 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Which you can see very clearly on the 12z NAM: Picture worth a thousand words. We had a string of runs Fri-sat showing an ok 850 low track but it was too close for comfort. It hasn't budged since models agreed on driving it north of us. Like ian said, euro makes it interesting but still not there yet. I personally think we're cooked on this one but if I'm wrong I still win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm still on the glass half full side of thinking that their will be some forzen precip on the backside for everyone . 50/50 I'd say right now, but optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm still on the glass half full side of thinking that their will be some forzen precip on the backside for everyone . 50/50 I'd say right now, but optimistic. That's always possible with a Miller-B, but that scenario highly favors north/east locations. Phin and Mapgirl could do much better (but still not great) than me, Bob and the DC/Leesburg crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's always possible with a Miller-B, but that scenario highly favors north/east locations. Phin and Mapgirl could do much better (but still not great) than me, Bob and the DC/Leesburg crew. I'm not sure I can remember a time where I got whiffed on the front but scored on the back. There might be some examples but I sure don't remember any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we were ever in a foxhole together and there was incoming fire and mortar shells raining down on us, with enemy troops closing in from all sides, and we had a handgun left for defense, I'd want you there beside me. You'd tell me there was a sliver of hope and that we were gonna make it out alive. Awesome quote! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z GFS vastly improved. more digging. through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.