snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Matt, Bob, here's one of the big anomalous snowstorms. We had a negative AO but and east based on. Low heights up north of Hudson Bay, the ridge in the west is farther west than optimal but with a strong southern stream and positive tilting trough embedded in it, we managed to get 10 inches on the 6th of February. snow_pattern_1967.gif I looked at the 1961 case which is one of today's analogs and it had a a nice southern stream shortwave that passed well to our south. Over the east, it's nt a very good analog for the pattern. thanks Wes...I don't have the KU book in front of me, but I think that had really good surface features...with a big HP to our NW...shows how you can do ok with an unfavorable set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 thanks Wes...I don't have the KU book in front of me, but I think that had really good surface features...with a big HP to our NW...shows how you can do ok with an unfavorable set up Your right, an arctic front came through right before it got going and the front had a big high to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Thanks for the lookup Wes. Hitting a good storm in a less than perfect pattern is pretty rare in these parts but at least not impossible. Not feeling to good at hitting one next week but I can hope it will for a while. Some pieces appear to be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro has the day 9 event, but is just a weak frontal event with the low to our north...some light rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Your right, an arctic front came through right before it got going and the front had a big high to our northwest. It's amazing what a powerful high can do. At the height of the snow here on 12/8 we were only 23 degrees. If I remember correctly the 2/25 2007 event had a sneaky high that got stronger than was originally forecasted to be. Probably a bunch of other events that the high's were under estimated and turned out to be more snowy than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro op is a disaster. Northern stream commits grand snow larceny door to door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro has the day 9 event, but is just a weak frontal event with the low to our north...some light rain/snow It really has no southern stream to speak of, It's trying to get blocking across greenland but about 5 degrees farther north than we want. Still better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro op is a disaster. Northern stream commits grand snow larceny door to door Bob, I wouldn't mind it's 240 hour being right as it has that monster vortex over New England that could provide a 50 50 low as the clipper dives towards us. Too bad it won't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro looks good day10. Day 9 had me worried a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'd be happy with a minus 5 departure. I still don't see this as a pure snow type pattern unless we get extremely lucky but do think it a mixy type where we can get a couple of front side inches. Wes, here are the Ecmwf ENS analogs for Day 11-15 from last night. with snow amounts within the 5 day window and day with the lowest temp....You can see the coldest day averaged -16. Even the warmest day in the sample was a -8. Of course we have to adjust for DCA and UHI and snowcover if there was any, but maybe a pretty good chance of getting a -10 or colder departure day that 1st week of January...Curious to see if the 1961 analog is still on there later... T, 24/11 T, 26/10 0.2", 31/24 7.7", 21/8 0, 27/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Bob, I wouldn't mind it's 240 hour being right as it has that monster vortex over New England that could provide a 50 50 low as the clipper dives towards us. Too bad it won't be right. Upon further inspection I realized that the euro and gfs handle the ull of the ca coast very differently. Euro digs it down Baja and crawls it across mx. It's still in Mexico south of tx @ d10. If the euro does have a sw bias at long leadslike we've noticed through the years this would be a good case study. Gfs is a good bit quicker and further north. Not saying a quicker solution is better because if it does lift and phase with the ns energy then the euro setup above us if definitely better than the gfs. A compromise is still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Wes, here are the Ecmwf ENS analogs for Day 11-15 from last night. with snow amounts within the 5 day window and day with the lowest temp....You can see the coldest day averaged -16. Even the warmest day in the sample was a -8. Of course we have to adjust for DCA and UHI and snowcover if there was any, but maybe a pretty good chance of getting a -10 or colder departure day that 1st week of January...Curious to see if the 1961 analog is still on there later... T, 24/11 T, 26/10 0.2", 31/24 7.7", 21/8 0, 27/10 Thanks, I was hoping for a little more snow love as I don't like 61 as analog despite it consistently showing up. If it averages colder than normal and we get one day where we stay below freezing all day I'll be relatively happy. Of course I'd like to see accumulating snow too but the pattern while better still needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Bob, I wouldn't mind it's 240 hour being right as it has that monster vortex over New England that could provide a 50 50 low as the clipper dives towards us. Too bad it won't be right. Euro looks good day10. Day 9 had me worried a bit. for days 11-15, of the top 7 analogs, 4 had measurable snow in the 5 day period and all 7 had measurable within 4 days of the center date...but would obviously like the ensemble to improve too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Upon further inspection I realized that the euro and gfs handle the ull of the ca coast very differently. Euro digs it down Baja and crawls it across mx. It's still in Mexico south of tx @ d10. If the euro does have a sw bias at long leadslike we've noticed through the years this would be a good case study. Gfs is a good bit quicker and further north. Not saying a quicker solution is better because if it does lift and phase with the ns energy then the euro setup above us if definitely better than the gfs. A compromise is still decent. shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 shocking I'm like a laser focused hawk picking up on things that people can see with their eyes closed. Lol Euro looks fine honestly. And will change another dozen times before finer details are meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 This says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 This says it all Poor Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Poor Leesburg. Yeah, models keep trying to 'move' the DC hole 10-20 miles west. Done that several times this year on runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro ensemble mean should make some friends. Decent east based -nao and it's steady from 192 on out to 288 or so. PV starts east of hudson and south of baffin but moves back towards n hudson late. -epo getting better as time goes on. All in all an ok look. ETA: 2m temp anoms show re-enforcing cold d10-15 in our parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Euro ensemble mean should make some friends. Decent east based -nao and it's steady from 192 on out to 288 or so. PV starts east of hudson and south of baffin but moves back towards n hudson late. -epo getting better as time goes on. All in all an ok look. ETA: 2m temp anoms show re-enforcing cold d10-15 in our parts. It's a more tempered version of the euro...not much different from last night...which is predictable as the euro ensemble is stable as an ensemble should be.... one new analog showed up pretty high...had a 3" storm within the 11-15 day window and had a 25/13 day (w/snowcover) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 It's a more tempered version of the euro...not much different from last night...which is predictable as the euro ensemble is stable as an ensemble should be.... one new analog showed up pretty high...had a 3" storm within the 11-15 day window and had a 25/13 day (w/snowcover) Sounds good to me. Agree, euro seems stable and gfs not far behind. Every day that holds the look makes me feel better. i just want some chances. And I want DC to get 2" before the 3 year anniversary. That's one streak I want to see ended asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Sounds good to me. Agree, euro seems stable and gfs not far behind. Every day that holds the look makes me feel better. i just want some chances. And I want DC to get 2" before the 3 year anniversary. That's one streak I want to see ended asap. Happy hour should give DC its 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Sounds good to me. Agree, euro seems stable and gfs not far behind. Every day that holds the look makes me feel better. i just want some chances. And I want DC to get 2" before the 3 year anniversary. That's one streak I want to see ended asap. Happy hour should give DC its 2" that was an easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Every model has the January 2-3 event. My guess is we'll have a thread on it by this weekend. Of course the GFS is the only model that is uber bullish on it as of now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Every model has the January 2-3 event. My guess is we'll have a thread on it by this weekend. Of course the GFS is the only model that is uber bullish on it as of now... Haven't gotten past 192, waht does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Haven't gotten past 192, waht does it show? Big noreaster...for us...2-4" to mix to ice to probably rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Big noreaster...for us...2-4" to mix to ice to probably rain... That would be good....hope it stays the course and the other models shift towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Big noreaster...for us...2-4" to mix to ice to probably rain... Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 That would be good....hope it stays the course and the other models shift towards it. It would be a fun forecast...and probably frustrating for CWG with all the uncertainty....I'd like to see the GFS get into pre-truncation since it is kind of a tricky phase...I wish there was something to hold the high in place...plus the weak low over the lakes doesnt help....but a front thump would be nice...maybe the euro wil catch on by tomorrow afternoon and give everyone a Christmas present - hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 It would be a fun forecast...and probably frustrating for CWG with all the uncertainty....I'd like to see the GFS get into pre-truncation since it is kind of a tricky phase...I wish there was something to hold the high in place...plus the weak low over the lakes doesnt help....but a front thump would be nice...maybe the euro wil catch on by tomorrow afternoon and give everyone a Christmas present - hope just for sh-its and giggles, the GFS has us at around 12 degrees at the onset of the event and still in the mid to upper teens after we've been thumped good...It has been a while since we have had an event with super cold temps...It would be nice to get a front end thump even with temps in the low to mid 20s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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