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January Pattern Discussion


NorthArlington101

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And of course the jan 6 threat trends in the wrong direction despite a 1090 high rolling in

 

That big-ass high is in western Canada (with some serious cold), and unfortunately the decent high to our northeast has already moved away.  The low of interest will probably shoot into the UP of Michigan or something like that (slight exaggeration perhaps, but anyhow), given how it appears through 189-h.  Looks like we're at ~50 degrees headed into the 60s, too, with that flow.

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UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours.

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features)

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We have to get some blocking at some point this winter. At least the pattern is going to be active.

 

Agree.  That's really killing us as a lot of people have mentioned.  As you say, at least it looks active.  There are times it appears we get hints of a block or a pseudo-block.  Maybe one of those will finally occur at the right time.

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Verbatim 1/6 doesn't look good but the models are having all kinds of trouble modeling the PV orientations in Canada. I am going to stick out the good fight with Bob Chill. 1/6 is a period worthy of discussion with the PVs floating all over the place to our north, it's possible we land a decent pattern.  Definitely not mailing it in during our prime snow season with Arctic air close enough by to keep things interesting for a while.

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No not really climo...more like lack of a -NAO

I know...was being a tad facetious with my comment!  It just seems like "climo"...cold except when the storm is near!  The whole thing repeats near the end of the GFS run, some really cold air that disappears in a big hurry just in time as another low approaches.

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UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours.

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features)

Ukmet is so bad that weatherbell dosent even offer it

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Verbatim 1/6 doesn't look good but the models are having all kinds of trouble modeling the PV orientations in Canada. I am going to stick out the good fight with Bob Chill. 1/6 is a period worthy of discussion with the PVs floating all over the place to our north, it's possible we land a decent pattern.  Definitely not mailing it in during our prime snow season with Arctic air close enough by to keep things interesting for a while.

 

I was going to say that despite the bad look the GFS has been throwing at us, the Arctic air has sure been very impressive (as modeled, at least).  That's some serious cold and some big highs it's got marching down out of Canada.  Maybe one of these times we can line things up right.  Before I saw the big (and wet) storm near the end of the 00Z GFS's run, I was half thinking it almost looked like a potentially developing overrunning event.  Probably would be if there were more semblance of blocking.

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UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours.

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features)

Ukmet is doesn't have as much of a kicker which allows the troff more time to amplify. Every other model rushes the storm northeast.

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