Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As expected...the gfs looks even worse. The models look locked in nowPlenty of time for them to come back to snowier solutions for us. That always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Plenty of time for them to come back to snowier solutions for us. That always happens. you forgot wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And of course the jan 6 threat trends in the wrong direction despite a 1090 high rolling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And of course the jan 6 threat trends in the wrong direction despite a 1090 high rolling in That big-ass high is in western Canada (with some serious cold), and unfortunately the decent high to our northeast has already moved away. The low of interest will probably shoot into the UP of Michigan or something like that (slight exaggeration perhaps, but anyhow), given how it appears through 189-h. Looks like we're at ~50 degrees headed into the 60s, too, with that flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like a WET January ahead,for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And of course the jan 6 threat trends in the wrong direction despite a 1090 high rolling in And I can tell you right now, that solution will hold for the next 160 + hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And I can tell you right now, that solution will hold for the next 160 + hours. Since it's going to be in the 60s according to that solution, you can probably book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And I can tell you right now, that solution will hold for the next 160 + hours. Agree...it,will probably start looking worse for us in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Agree...it,will probably start looking worse for us in future runs Going by what the 00Z GFS is displaying, looks like it'll be hard to be much worse for that storm! Once it's that bad, it doesn't much matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The entire gfs run is cold except for when there is a storm near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We have to get some blocking at some point this winter. At least the pattern is going to be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The entire gfs run is cold except for when there is a storm near us Climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We have to get some blocking at some point this winter. At least the pattern is going to be active. Agree. That's really killing us as a lot of people have mentioned. As you say, at least it looks active. There are times it appears we get hints of a block or a pseudo-block. Maybe one of those will finally occur at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Climo... No not really climo...more like lack of a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 gradient pattern and we're on the wrong side of it if you're lookin' for snow will it shift? nobody knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Verbatim 1/6 doesn't look good but the models are having all kinds of trouble modeling the PV orientations in Canada. I am going to stick out the good fight with Bob Chill. 1/6 is a period worthy of discussion with the PVs floating all over the place to our north, it's possible we land a decent pattern. Definitely not mailing it in during our prime snow season with Arctic air close enough by to keep things interesting for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No not really climo...more like lack of a -NAO I know...was being a tad facetious with my comment! It just seems like "climo"...cold except when the storm is near! The whole thing repeats near the end of the GFS run, some really cold air that disappears in a big hurry just in time as another low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features) Ukmet is so bad that weatherbell dosent even offer it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Verbatim 1/6 doesn't look good but the models are having all kinds of trouble modeling the PV orientations in Canada. I am going to stick out the good fight with Bob Chill. 1/6 is a period worthy of discussion with the PVs floating all over the place to our north, it's possible we land a decent pattern. Definitely not mailing it in during our prime snow season with Arctic air close enough by to keep things interesting for a while. I was going to say that despite the bad look the GFS has been throwing at us, the Arctic air has sure been very impressive (as modeled, at least). That's some serious cold and some big highs it's got marching down out of Canada. Maybe one of these times we can line things up right. Before I saw the big (and wet) storm near the end of the 00Z GFS's run, I was half thinking it almost looked like a potentially developing overrunning event. Probably would be if there were more semblance of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You would think that even without blocking we should still be able to get something on the front end of these systems with all the cold around. I am definitely surprised how active the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 UKmet seems to still be stuck on the further south track. Looks like it would be pretty good extrapolating out past 72 hours. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2013123000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=hght&VEC=none http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ (go here if you want to switch it to surface pressure or other features) Ukmet is doesn't have as much of a kicker which allows the troff more time to amplify. Every other model rushes the storm northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 00Z GFS has highs in the teens here Friday with winds 25+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This map can bring a grown man to tears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Trend is our friend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This map can bring a grown man to tears: At least you will have a dusting to go along with a frigid friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Trend is our friend.. Lol we need a lot of trending to get anything here, and a near miracle for DC to get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At least you will have a dusting to go along with a frigid friday. After that debacle today i need a hell of a lot more than a dusting to make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 After that debacle today i need a hell of a lot more than a dusting to make me happy. Days like today make me wish i hated weather and sports. The agony always outweighs the victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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