wxw Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 JMA agrees....Euro is so out of touch It's almost as though 18z GFS and JMA knew you were on the ledge and is talking you off of it .... to maximize our heartache, the storm will have this look until right after the 1/3 rainstorm. Then it will pull the plug, and Wes will concur. And round and round we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Wait, are things looking better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Wait, are things looking better?lol no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snowmaps look good for the 6th. 2-4 near the cities and plenty to come after that. This is the ONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snowmaps look good for the 6th. 2-4 near the cities and plenty to come after that. This is the ONE.Lmao snow maps for an event 192 hrs away on the 6th?? Now thats funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snowmaps look good for the 6th. 2-4 near the cities and plenty to come after that. This is the ONE. #thingswesaidtwonightsago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm sure this will draw laughs, but I can take it. Several GFS members show a decent solution (two with the euro solution (ish) from the other day). They are definitely a bit better than at 12z. No surrender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Agree winterw., ensembles keep the hope alive. Still almost 100 hrs out .I'm looking at strictly gfs/euro ensembles for the next 36 hrs then ops.r u talking about the 6th event ir the event on the 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snowmaps look good for the 6th. 2-4 near the cities and plenty to come after that. This is the ONE. cant ignore any model that shows snow in the Jan 6-8 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I yap about ens members all the time, but seriously, I can't remember when the agreement in them was this poor at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 cant ignore any model that shows snow in the Jan 6-8 timeframe. Your storm has ens support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Your storm has ens support.Im keeping an eye out But after watching the models do a 180with the storm on the 3rd Im not getting excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Again, ensembles. My copy and paste from LWX... THE LATEST TREND FOR SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAS BEEN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE QUICKER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS QPF OVER OUR CWA SINCE THE STORM WOULD BE FURTHER OUT TO SEA BEFORE IT REALLY GETS GOING. BUT A FAIR NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES AND THE 00Z UKMET HAVE CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AN EVENTUAL LOW TRACK OFF THE VA CAPES WHICH WOULD FAVOR HIGHER QPF FOR OUR CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snowmaps look good for the 6th. 2-4 near the cities and plenty to come after that. This is the ONE. 10 days out, and you are buying into that map???? Best bet would be to buy a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 10 days out, and you are buying into that map???? Best bet would be to buy a boat. Serious arctic boundary and southern moisture feed. I never buy into snowmaps. I will however keep and eye on a boundary like that. Barolclinic zone would be ripe for cyclogenesis. Do I think its a high prob event? No, they never are especially without a true -nao. But I won't blindly discount the solution because I'm pissed we got hosed just days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 3rd Jack...left that out I guess. From my eye the members overall look to have made a good jog for the better...maybe a blip...maybe not. Curious to see 0z ens..latera good jog to the south I hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We live for storms @188 on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Optimism for the January 4 to 8 time frame is not limited to the 18Z model suite and 12Z UKMET. The 6-10 day outlook centered on the 6th calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like a bunch of weenies got new PCs for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling that this storm will be a lot more amped up and juiced than the GFS is showing. I don't think we're going to stay snow for very long, but the quick clipper solutions just don't seem right in my weenie opinion. 18z GFS was able to wrap in a bit more of the moist plume coming up from the gulf, I think that trend will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ummmm. Is everyone been drinking too much on football Sunday? I know I need a few more before my Cowboys debacle. Anyway, what dates are we honing in on here? 3rd? 6th? I just need to belieeeeeeeeve. I WANT to believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling that this storm will be a lot more amped up and juiced than the GFS is showing. I don't think we're going to stay snow for very long, but the quick clipper solutions just don't seem right in my weenie opinion. 18z GFS was able to wrap in a bit more of the moist plume coming up from the gulf, I think that trend will continue Its the 18z. Lol ill wait too see it 00z has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In general life or in terms of how the weather/patterns are shaping up? The Ravens' loss rubbed salt on the wound for me (especially when they would have gotten into the playoffs if they had won). I guess I can rest easy knowing that they wouldn't have gotten far, though. at least Pittsburg didn't get in either. Some solace in that, weather related, it will be a cold January for them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ummmm. Is everyone been drinking too much on football Sunday? I know I need a few more before my Cowboys debacle. Anyway, what dates are we honing in on here? 3rd? 6th? I just need to belieeeeeeeeve. I WANT to believe! Best thing to hone in on in these parts is to manage expectations. For example, I expect about 6 inches of snow on the season and I already have three. That's not bad given the fact its only late December. Plenty of time for me to build up enough car toppings to another three inches by Feb 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope.hope for central md?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope.hope for central md?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. A bit soon to be discussing Feb 3? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Best thing to hone in on in these parts is to manage expectations. For example, I expect about 6 inches of snow on the season and I already have three. That's not bad given the fact its only late December. Plenty of time for me to build up enough car toppings to another three inches by Feb 20 Yeah Jeb. I know the deal here no doubt. Been a fan of the different personalities in here for many years now too. I just always ache for my own personal "Jebwalk" each and every winter. Anyway--expectations are definitely low. Pretty much anything we get these days feels like a win--including rain (sad but true). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling that this storm will be a lot more amped up and juiced than the GFS is showing. I don't think we're going to stay snow for very long, but the quick clipper solutions just don't seem right in my weenie opinion. 18z GFS was able to wrap in a bit more of the moist plume coming up from the gulf, I think that trend will continueYea, people seem to be getting hung up on op runs verbatim at long leads. The front is coming. It's pretty much a lock. Will it rain its eyeballs out before the cold and shut off? Sure is possible. Can the boundary drape and slow while impulses ride it? Just happened in Dec. Trough axis looks like the boundary will take its time pushing off the coast. This is a good thing. If it blasts through there won't be any time for meaningful precip. I'm interested in the period but already know the risks and flaws. It's worthy of meaningful disco and not thoughtless hit and runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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