January Pattern Discussion

[Wonderdog]

Who isn't?

[Ji]

So much for all the cut and pasted hpc stuff that said were getting snow

[CAPE]

The euro could care less if it nails something 7 days out. DT being so definitive on a snow event for the worst snow place on the planet 7 days out is mind boggling

Models dont CARE about or KNOW anything. They are number crunching mathematical equations. It still takes skill to look at patterns and analogs in addition to model guidance and make a good forecast. Any flaws in the models are a function of flaws in the algorithms that model the atmosphere. Its always human error..logic machines don't make mistakes.

[winter_warlock]

So he's model hugging?

I can do that, too.

ull go nuts hugging every model

[winter_warlock]

So he's model hugging?

I can do that, too.

ull go nuts hugging every model

[Bob Chill]

We all know dt's schtick. He's a good met but his ego thinks he's smarter than all models and mets combined. He's a weird dude.

Wes is the man for our area. And a lot more pleasant listen too.

[Ji]

Jma and ukmet for the win

[olafminesaw]

Jma and ukmet for the win

I think we can extrapolate a HECS from the NAM.

[winter_warlock]

Jma and ukmet for the win

lol gl with that

[Bob Chill]

Jma and ukmet for the win

It's happened before. I'll take the under for now.

[Huffwx]

It's like we have the El Nino fetch on the STJ but the La NIna PLains based trough. 

 

Need a change. 

[clskinsfan]

The models have been awful with recognizing the upcoming pattern. When they cant even get the basic 500 pattern correct they are of no use. 

[stormtracker]

So much for all the cut and pasted hpc stuff that said were getting snow

 

I see a long trek through the valley for us.

[Ji]

I see a long trek through the valley for us.

your suppose to have peaks when you have valleys..all we have is valley

[olafminesaw]

The gfs looks like the low is a little stronger/hugs the coast more. Not that I'm getting my hopes up.

[CAPE]

The gfs looks like the low is a little stronger/hugs the coast more. Not that I'm getting my hopes up.

lol just enough to give me some rain. I'll take the dry slot.

[usedtobe]

I think things are finally clear enough to give a definitive call that we are dealing with a miller b with little snow potential for DC.

 

Reasons:

 

1) The ridge off the west coast is farther west than you'd like to keep the vort/trough digging enough to go south of us.

2)  The lack of any real blocking in the atlantic far enough south to force the vort/trough south of us.

3) more importantly,  the models are pretty consistent now in taking a low into the OH valley and then forming the low a little too far north for us to get anything of note except maybe a few flurried well after the low is past us if the down sloping will allow the vort provide any lifting. 

 

I'll be writing something tomorrow about jan 7-14. 

[Ji]

I think things are finally clear enough to give a definitive call that we are dealing with a miller b with little snow potential for DC.

 

Reasons:

 

1) The ridge off the west coast is farther west than you'd like to keep the vort/trough digging enough to go south of us.

2)  The lack of any real blocking in the atlantic far enough south to force the vort/trough south of us.

3) more importantly,  the models are pretty consistent now in taking a low into the OH valley and then forming the low a little too far north for us to get anything of note except maybe a few flurried well after the low is past us if the down sloping will allow the vort provide any lifting. 

 

I'll be writing something tomorrow about jan 7-14. 

after looking at the latest data, i dont see a winter storm threat for us on the horizon through 240 and beyond

[MDstorm]

after looking at the latest data, i dont see a winter storm threat for us on the horizon through 240 and beyond

Lol... Ji, you stole Wes' title for his next article. Actually, it appears to be the title of most of the articles.

MDstorm

[jums300]

Geez...is this place depressing...

[Ji]

i think these past 2 days have been an all time worse for me personally and this board.

[jums300]

Jma and ukmet for the win

BTW, what do those two models show?

[wxw]

i think these past 2 days have been an all time worse for me personally and this board.

And to think, this winter blows away last winter lol

[Ji]

And to think, this winter blows away last winter lol

its not like we lost a blizzard or a snowstorm either. We lost a 2-3 inch event lol

[Wonderdog]

I like the new trend shown on the 18z GFS. I think we got a reprieve (for at least six hours).

[jums300]

i think these past 2 days have been an all time worse for me personally and this board.

In general life or in terms of how the weather/patterns are shaping up?  The Ravens' loss rubbed salt on the wound for me (especially when they would have gotten into the playoffs if they had won).  I guess I can rest easy knowing that they wouldn't have gotten far, though.

[Ji]

here is something new for wes and all to track

 

[winter_warlock]

here is something new for wes and all to track

lol it wil miss us like the rest

[wxw]

here is something new for wes and all to track

 

Great find Ji. Here's a preview of Wes's thoughts for that one as well:

"1) The ridge off the west coast is farther west than you'd like to keep the vort/trough digging enough to go south of us.

2)  The lack of any real blocking in the atlantic far enough south to force the vort/trough south of us.

3) more importantly,  the models are pretty consistent now in taking a low into the OH valley and then forming the low a little too far north for us to get anything of note except maybe a few flurried well after the low is past us if the down sloping will allow the vort provide any lifting. "

[Ji]

JMA agrees....Euro is so out of touch