Joe Vanni Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Check out the 12z UKmet; definitely more south vs. the GFS/GGEM. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS ensembles still don't have very good agreement, even under 5 days. Not to say that they would really benefit us, but most are certainly better than the op. Two show a solution remarkably similar to the euro solution that got everyone excited a few runs back. I wouldn't say it's anything to be hopeful of, but if we're discussing it, might as well discuss all of it and not just the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ao just cracked negative and going down. +pna and neutral nao for the thurs storm. And it still makes no difference. How cool is that!? Usually we go from needing the indices to having too much of the indices or having them angry with each other and us in the middle of the fight. We could just be in a long term blip but it's probably time to just come to terms with the fact that our (fall line east/metro people especially) snow climo is getting shot to hell. Life is tough on the fringes.. we never got that much on avg to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Usually we go from needing the indices to having too much of the indices or having them angry with each other and us in the middle of the fight. We could just be in a long term blip but it's probably time to just come to terms with the fact that our (fall line east/metro people especially) snow climo is getting shot to hell. Life is tough on the fringes.. we never got that much on avg to begin with. Whether it's permanent or not we are certainly challenged on the margins and fringes. And not having anything to hold the cold for more than 2-3 days at a time makes it even more challenging. We did get some good atl help last year but it came 3 weeks late. We still have some room for thurs. We'll see how it goes. Nothing good on the runs by 0z tomorrow and we can fork it. Looking down the road has some cad/front end potential. Some big cold highs to move out of the way. Good climp period for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro looks quite bad. Oh well... suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We might have 3 hrs of snow/virga on the euro before 850s warm 492dm vortex in southern Quebec didn't save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Rain in se OH wirh slp approaching lake Erie is never a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This run will make sne nervous. At least there isn't much to fret about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro looks quite bad. Oh well... suckers.lol well Im glad others will have misery like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ecmwf_snow_24_neng_21.png If U take weatherbell bias.....this is run of the mill storm for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well, that was fun. We got anything else on the horizon or are we just cold and dry before the next warm/wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Folks, DT now says he screwed the pooch for VA,MD and DC. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If U take weatherbell bias.....this is run of the mill storm for sne The handoff is a bit late which is probably their biggest risk there... The secondary track is pretty ideal for them.. I remember a few quick 8-12s from stuff like this. Never count SNE out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Thats wjy I dont really take DT seriously he changes His thinkin evert few runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ecmwf_snow_24_neng_21.png Heavier snow continues to retreat northward. So much for the 1-2 feet of snow for SNE. Another day or 2 and this will be a NNE special. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Folks, DT now says he screwed the pooch for VA,MD and DC. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! I'm so bummed our cold snow isn't going to happen. It seemed fairly likely at the time. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 UKMET is a hit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Thats the way Its been this winter. looks great a week out But changes as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 UKMET is a hit!!Its the only model that shows a hit. An out lier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Something has to give.. Such massive BS seems we will never get a storm of any significance .. I am so pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 SNE will be fine. They always sort out marginal situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 SNE will be fine. They always sort out marginal situations like this.yeah sne always gets snow. No big deal there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Folks, DT now says he screwed the pooch for VA,MD and DC. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! It would be comical if it now turned around on him again. I get the notion that all of his forecasts are right. He even says this one was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Good news is the Euro sorta dryslots us with the big lakes low a week from tomorrow. We could use a break from heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It would be comical if it now turned around on him again. I get the notion that all of his forecasts are right. He even says this one was right. he flip flops too much. Every few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If u screen flip the euro its a big south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If u screen flip the euro its a big south trend.we can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 how do people live in ND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 SNE will be fine. They always sort out marginal situations like this. I'm still really worried for them. They are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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