PhineasC Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Still time for the models to shift back to a better solution to make the inevitable screw job hurt even more. I bet the GFS will have a few good runs over the next couple of days that will trick people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Joe B's blog says mainly a new England storm. call me selfish but if I cant get snow I hope it trends way nw and we all get rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Joe B's blog says mainly a new England storm. call me selfish but if I cant get snow I hope it trends way nw and we all get rain lol SNE is in a drought they need precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 SNE is in a drought they need precip 20131224_northeast_none.png I agree, I hope they get lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Does Joe B's kid still think this looks like Feb 5 2010? joe actually agreed with him and posted it in his blog yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 joe actually agreed with him and posted it in his blog yesterday When JB sats we are screwed you know we are done: "THERE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR WEST TO EAST DISRUPTIVE WINTER EVENT. This will be similar to Dec 13-14 in that an arctic boundary from the north needs to come through you for you to get into the heavy snow. It will be powdery and it will be a much colder event, partly because its January. Now the problem we have is where does that true front get. I think it gets as far south as New Jersey to Nebraska and so the heaviest snows are likely from the plains to the Appalachians between I 70 and I 80, and north of the Mason Dixon line to I-90 in the NE" He sees the GFS as not strong enough and while he can see the stronger further north idea of the ECWMF, he believes his in between idea he has is best. He says is it 2" or 12" in NYC? He cant say quite yet but its not some shrinking violet.. He references that this kind of synoptic pattern is one that you can see in great Kocin/Ucceline Snowstorm book.. departing vortex with jet behind, and trailing short digging in with a double jet structure . So he is quite certain we have a big storm.. He does not see it pushed south, never have, but remains uncertain as to where the true arctic front gets. But alot of people are going to get a real dose of a darn cold, major winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 When JB sats we are screwed you know we are done: "THERE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR WEST TO EAST DISRUPTIVE WINTER EVENT. This will be similar to Dec 13-14 in that an arctic boundary from the north needs to come through you for you to get into the heavy snow. It will be powdery and it will be a much colder event, partly because its January. Now the problem we have is where does that true front get. I think it gets as far south as New Jersey to Nebraska and so the heaviest snows are likely from the plains to the Appalachians between I 70 and I 80, and north of the Mason Dixon line to I-90 in the NE" He sees the GFS as not strong enough and while he can see the stronger further north idea of the ECWMF, he believes his in between idea he has is best. He says is it 2" or 12" in NYC? He cant say quite yet but its not some shrinking violet.. He references that this kind of synoptic pattern is one that you can see in great Kocin/Ucceline Snowstorm book.. departing vortex with jet behind, and trailing short digging in with a double jet structure . So he is quite certain we have a big storm.. He does not see it pushed south, never have, but remains uncertain as to where the true arctic front gets. But alot of people are going to get a real dose of a darn cold, major winter storm! so basically anyone in se pa or md or va get the shaft this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I wouldn't say it's time to give up, we're still 4 days out and a lot can change, but many veterans here know that things generally don't get better for us, especially with miller b's. It's not impossible, but it does look pretty bleak. The idea of a decent first week or so of January is starting to unravel a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I wouldn't say it's time to give up, we're still 4 days out and a lot can change, but many veterans here know that things generally don't get better for us, especially with miller b's. It's not impossible, but it does look pretty bleak. The idea of a decent first week or so of January is starting to unravel a bit. I always thought the general rule of thumb was we should call them Miller Busts unless it's actually snowing outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's always best when the models keep showing no precip. It can only get better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like a pretty standard SNE special. We all know the drill. I hope it misses us entirely rather than just be a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's always best when the models keep showing no precip. It can only get better from here. gfs_namer_120_precip_p36.gif That image isn't surprising when you consider our last three years. We really need some blocking. This progressive pattern really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That image isn't surprising when you consider our last three years. We really need some blocking. This progressive pattern really sucks. Mid-Jan on will be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I wouldn't say it's time to give up, we're still 4 days out and a lot can change, but many veterans here know that things generally don't get better for us, especially with miller b's. It's not impossible, but it does look pretty bleak. The idea of a decent first week or so of January is starting to unravel a bit. Without getting the ns vort to dig below us we're in big trouble and the current trend is what myself and others have been worried about the whole time. It is what is and we're pretty much used to this. I was encouraged with yesterday's 12 gfs but it was way too close to being bad. When I saw ensemble aupport this am for a north miller b I wasn't surprised. Wasn't happy of course but wasn't shocked We have some room to get better but if the n solution sticks for another 24 hours we can punt and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I always thought the general rule of thumb was we should call them Miller Busts unless it's actually snowing outside. We can do ok with the front end pretty often. Modest snow and dryslot. We used to call those busts. Today those are major events. Too bad the front end stuff is in pa with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 the davis strait block got weaker on the 00z euro. not liking the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_63.png This image is up there in the best of the best for the DC Snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Can JI cancel winter now and next winter too for that matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This image is up there in the best of the best for the DC Snowhole. You probably could eliminate all of the gray in that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think I'm going to chase if this is a euro level SNE special. gFS isn't cutting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like the 12Z GFS has deja vu in a week with another cold rain event. Wave moving up a front from what it appears. Wait a minute, it might be slightly warmer compared to today, now that I look at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think I'm going to chase if this is a euro level SNE special. gFS isn't cutting iti don't like the trends for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 i don't like the trends for anyone Yeah, might become a NNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS long range shows more of what we do best..cold and dry, mild and rainy, followed by more cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah, might become a NNE special. that's why I mentioned the 84 hr. NAM earlier the model sux but it's jumping all over the northern trend the +AO and NAO are just killing us for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS long range shows more of what we do best..cold and dry, mild and rainy, followed by more cold and dry. Yup, sad but true! Though rather than "mild and rainy" I'd say more like "dank and rainy", it's not even warm outside right now. Seems those hints of an emerging -NAO in the longer range GFS have disappeared for the most part. It really looked kind of hopeful not that long ago. Or perhaps it was more wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 i don't like the trends for anyone Agreed. This one is over for down here and is likely to trend worse for further up north. Rockin early Jan------NOT. Can't wait for the Jan thaw. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Lol All of joe b's talk of a bitter cold Jan wont be as bad as he always hypes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 that's why I mentioned the 84 hr. NAM earlier the model sux but it's jumping all over the northern trend the +AO and NAO are just killing us for the foreseeable future Ao just cracked negative and going down. +pna and neutral nao for the thurs storm. And it still makes no difference. How cool is that!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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