mattie g Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Should we move talk of this exciting event to the obs and discussion thread? Guys, guys, lets not give up yet. Still five days out. If the models can flip one way they can flip back another, we have plenty of time to switch sides. You haven't lived here very long, have you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Should we move talk of this exciting event to the obs and discussion thread? You haven't lived here very long, have you? that's what im saying, the trend on nearly all the models is not in our favor, im not giving up yet but im also not getting hopes up. in the past whenever the models had problems with a miller b, central md and va almost always gets screwed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Should we move talk of this exciting event to the obs and discussion thread? You haven't lived here very long, have you? Sadly I have, but the models already flipped once to give us an event, lets give them time to flip back. We at least know they will before the storm, in which they will let us down again. Also, is the event you are referring about this rain event, because I'm sure you know that is irrelevant to the Jan 1-3 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Sadly I have, but the models already flipped once to give us an event, lets give them time to flip back. We at least know they will before the storm, in which they will let us down again. Also, is the event you are referring about this rain event, because I'm sure you know that is irrelevant to the Jan 1-3 event. im talking about the jan2-4th event, the trend is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 im talking about the jan2-4th event, the trend is not good I'm going to try to not get depressed until the day before. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Sadly I have, but the models already flipped once to give us an event, lets give them time to flip back. We at least know they will before the storm, in which they will let us down again. Also, is the event you are referring about this rain event, because I'm sure you know that is irrelevant to the Jan 1-3 event. I'm not as positive as you that the models can make an about face for the better in this area. I'm talking about the January "event." It's within a week, not the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm going to try to not get depressed until the day before. =) lol u do that, but I wouldn't get excited either bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm not as positive as you that the models can make an about face for the better in this area. I'm talking about the January "event." It's within a week, not the longer term. Yeah, it doesn't seem we get the models to flip in our favor in this area the last few years; if they do, they wind up being wrong and it busts. The models do well at flipping against us the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm not as positive as you that the models can make an about face for the better in this area. I'm talking about the January "event." It's within a week, not the longer term. My bad, forum new guy here. The models tend to make us happy then disappoint us again at the last minute, but maybe that is just what I've noticed. Personally, I'm tempted to start a new topic on our non-event, because I think that would be more convenient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah, it doesn't seem we get the models to flip in our favor in this area the last few years; if they do, they wind up being wrong and it busts. The models do well at flipping against us the last few years. I agree, its been that way since our great snowmaggendon winter of 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 My bad, forum new guy here. The models tend to make us happy then disappoint us again at the last minute, but maybe that is just what I've noticed. Personally, I'm tempted to start a new topic on our non-event, because I think that would be most convenient. miller b's as a whole are never real snow producers for mid atl, miller bs are better for new England, we need a nice miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 miller b's as a whole are never real snow producers for mid atl, miller bs are better for new England, we need a nice miller A I wouldn't say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 miller b's as a whole are never real snow producers for mid atl, miller bs are better for new England, we need a nice miller A I'll take a ns vort that passes through cen/sva. That's still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 miller b's as a whole are never real snow producers for mid atl, miller bs are better for new England, we need a nice miller A I will be optimistic with what we have atm. Until last night it was a possibility, and I'm not going to let one night of sour grape models turn me into a sour grape just yet. By tonight I might have a different opinion. Miller B's have occasionally worked, and I'm not asking for a "snowstorm" just 1-3 inches of legitimate snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'll take a ns vort that passes through cen/sva. That's still on the table. Yeah, I'd take my chances with that scenario. 12z GFS yesterday depicted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well at least the 84h 12z Nam looks more promising than the 90h 6z GFS... fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I wouldn't say never. lol ok I wouldn't say never,,... almost never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well at least the 84h 12z Nam looks more promising than the 90h 6z GFS... fwiw 84 hr NAM is horrible, its at the end of the NAM run and very inaccuate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 if it's any consolation to the locals, 12z 84 hr. NAM is showing NE in trouble as well http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M not that the NAM can be believed at that, or any, range, but this thing probably hasn't stopped trending in the wrong direction for everyone south of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 if it's any consolation to the locals, 12z 84 hr. NAM is showing NE in trouble as well http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M not that the NAM can be believed at that, or any, range, but this thing probably hasn't stopped trending in the wrong direction for everyone south of Maine I agree Mitch I just don't put a lot of stock in the nam at 84 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I was just about to come in and ask about the 84hr NAM. As a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I was just about to come in and ask about the 84hr NAM. As a joke... lol yeah the NAM at 84 hrs is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather25m The current atmospheric pattern evolution points to a solution much like the colder ECMWF ensemble than other guidance. Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather29m Studying all the data and frankly I think of all the data, the Ensemble models are handling this pattern the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather25m The current atmospheric pattern evolution points to a solution much like the colder ECMWF ensemble than other guidance. Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather29m Studying all the data and frankly I think of all the data, the Ensemble models are handling this pattern the best. its looking like a more western new England storm then anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather29m Studying all the data and frankly I think of all the data, the Ensemble models are handling this pattern the best. Looks like he reads the WPC discussionsTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN... BAR NONE... THE MOST USEFUL GUIDE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEIR AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You haven't lived here very long, have you? Storms trend better here all the time after going bad. Plus that one guy had a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like he reads the WPC discussions THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN... BAR NONE... THE MOST USEFUL GUIDE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEIR AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. yep that's from the hpc discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Does Joe B's kid still think this looks like Feb 5 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Storms trend better here all the time after going bad. Plus that one guy had a hunch. hmmm im hoping this one trends better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Does Joe B's kid still think this looks like Feb 5 2010? lol idk Ian, it may have 2 days ago but it don't resemble it anymore IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.