January Pattern Discussion

[Amped]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=117ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_117_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

Yeah that says it all on to 6z.

[Ji]

Kinda sucks for everyone, even in the SNE

no its good for SNE

[North Balti Zen]

Thank god. Was worried it wouldn't work out for SNE.

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[Ji]

by far the worst GFS Run of the year

[Ji]

lets see what HPC says later on

[Ian]

lets see what HPC says later on

If they go with initialization errors you're going to hug the crap out of them.

[Ji]

Dt says to ignore the 00z GFS. its crap.

 

 

Done

[CAPE]

If they go with initialization errors you're going to hug the crap out of them.

Northern stream shortwave- Its currently way out in the pacific. Poor sampling in the models. They will flip and flop for 2 more days, then lock on. In the meantime, analogs and model ensembles..

[Ji]

GGEM has a 998 low off the Carolina Coas

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[Amped]

GGEM has a 998 low off the Carolina Coas

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

 

Meh

[Ji]

Meh

No way that would be rain but where is the precipitation?

[Amped]

No way that would be rain but where is the precipitation?

 

It's actually a northern low that reforms further south. The Northern stream robs the CAD and we have almost the same surface pressure as the Carolina coast on this GGEM run.  However it's still 5 days out and I'm probably overanalysing things that will turn out grossly inaccurate anyway.

[welbane]

00z Euro cold rain for the area, great snowstorm for sne.

[MDstorm]

 

00z Euro cold rain for the area, great snowstorm for sne.

Yup....and to think that a day or 2 ago, this had the look of a suppressed system with very cold temps.  Now, it looks to be a much more northern system with some light cold rain.  Winter forecasting for the DC area has to be the easiest job in the world-----just don't include snow in the forecast.

[Ji]

Disgusting turn of events tonight...we never get any positive trends

[stormtracker]

Disgusting turn of events tonight...we never get any positive trends

 

You give up way too easily.

[Ji]

How much u trust ukmet http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[usedtobe]

The most disquieting thing is the shift to a miller b look by the euro ens mean.  The majority of ens members of the euro and GEFS now have that sort of messy look with the gefs members beig much weaker with the low than the euro members.  I guess the ukmet looks OK for what that is worth.  Too much northern stream, without the shortwave digging way to our south,  we end up getting the miller b screw job. 

[mattie g]

*crickets*

[Ji]

How come we always get the opposite of what we need wes

[usedtobe]

How come we always get the opposite of what we need wes

Cause we live in DC.  Our median for snow is only 12 inches for a season and lately we only get mega year or busts and we get about 6 bad years for every good one. 

[mattie g]

Weak to moderate Niño with more blocking than not next winter. Book it.

I hope that makes everyone feel better.

[needbiggerboat]

lets see what HPC says later on

I think you mean WPC

Cliffs - IT MIGHT SNOW OR IT MIGHT NOT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

[clueless]

Another Miller B? Wow. Our cup runneth over.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The interesting thing for me is how anemic the cold now looks. I guess we shouldn't be discouraged by any models as they have shown themselves to be suspect at any distance. I can't keep from thinking about Matts 90-91 analog and looking at the gfs long range makes me think of 96-97.

[Ji]

i think Jan 15-30 pattern might actually do well

[mitchnick]

we can't get rid of that great lakes low to save our life

look at right now even....a Miller A coming up the coast yet this is how surface pressures look across the country

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

[CAPE]

Another Miller B? Wow. Our cup runneth over.

Pattern supports it,.. despite what an early model run or 2 may show to get everyone all giddy. Gotta love how that High pressure is retreating by early Thursday. Until we get some semblance of blocking, the odds of an an area wide moderate snow event seem pretty slim. 

[winter_warlock]

The most disquieting thing is the shift to a miller b look by the euro ens mean.  The majority of ens members of the euro and GEFS now have that sort of messy look with the gefs members beig much weaker with the low than the euro members.  I guess the ukmet looks OK for what that is worth.  Too much northern stream, without the shortwave digging way to our south,  we end up getting the miller b screw job. 

and so goes another  non-event, on to the next one lol

[NorthArlington101]

Guys, guys, lets not give up yet. Still five days out. If the models can flip one way they can flip back another, we have plenty of time to switch sides.