usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 120 hr GFS is looking like it might be pretty good though extrapolation of a model is fraught with boy I can really look stupid type moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 120 hr GFS is looking like it might be pretty good though extrapolation of a model is fraught with boy I can really look stupid type moments. Kind of a long-lasting light event, but it would whiten up the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't mind the cut and paste stuff, especially from HPC/meso scale stuff. That's just out of laziness though...just another page I don't have to go to . Anyway..about that 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 120 hr GFS is looking like it might be pretty good though extrapolation of a model is fraught with boy I can really look stupid type moments. 18z run? hmmm lol don't usually put a lot of stock in the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Kind of a long-lasting light event, but it would whiten up the place. That's all I care about right now. I prefer that than a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That's all I care about right now. I prefer that than a miller b. true, me too rather have anything light then a heavy miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, it's a long lasting flurry/light snow a thon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z run? hmmm lol don't usually put a lot of stock in the 18z No but it's one of quite a few possible solutions and is more in line with the euro ens mean than the euro. Right now I wouldn't make a distinction about precip type or how heavy but would say I think it likely we see some precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I am much more of a casual interested person. HPC cut and pastes are fine with me, and helpful. Another take on what's happening, not gospel, but of interest. I don't have time to live and work several websites, I look to this one to give me many opinions on what's ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No but it's one of quite a few possible solutions and is more in line with the euro ens mean than the euro. Right now I wouldn't make a distinction about precip type or how heavy but would say I think it likely we see some precipitation. well 6 days out that's not too bad, at least were going in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That's all I care about right now. I prefer that than a miller b. I'm encouraged all around. I like the events that slowly build and get better as we get close as opposed to our usual fails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, it's a long lasting flurry/light snow a thonBoxing Day was the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, it's a long lasting flurry/light snow a thon It's better than that, it gives us .25 . Not a heavy event but probably would give us a 1-3 inch snow. the 500 vort is pretty good. Course, the next run will be different so it's probably not that important but is definitely a nicer looking run than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 significant improvement over 12z imo. looks like a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 A long-duration light snow event is OK this time of year as long as we have cold temps. It will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm encouraged all around. I like the events that slowly build and get better as we get close as opposed to our usual fails... But that is how our usual fails start. A suspenseful build to the possibility of 3-6 inches! Oh joy! WWW and WWA across the metro area? But wait, this is when the fun starts. Either A : Oh noes! The cold air has not formed! Dreary mix for DC area. B : Double oh noes! The DC Snowhole formed, and everyone surrounding DC gets forecasted amount, but we get a mix all day long. Usually both happen at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 But that is how our usual fails start. A suspenseful build to the possibility of 3-6 inches! Oh joy! WWW and WWA across the metro area? But wait, this is when the fun starts. Either A : Oh noes! The cold air has not formed! Dreary mix for DC area. B : Double oh noes! The DC Snowhole formed, and everyone surrounding DC gets forecasted amount, but we get a mix all day long. Usually both happen at once. No. There is something different about this one but I can't put my finger on it. It will trend better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No. There is something different about this one but I can't put my finger on it. It will trend better from here.This and the prior comment would be excellent in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So any analogs showing up? Just using my head, the main one that comes up is January 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So any analogs showing up? Just using my head, the main one that comes up is January 2005. IF the Euro version is correct, maybe "close" for NYC on NE but not for us we were much colder and had no problem getting 3-5", with a few flashes of lightning and/or rumbles of thunder before the dry slot screwgied us I'm not sold on the Euro because the GFS has been doing better in the 5 day range than Euro....look at tomorrow's rain storm; I don't recall Euro locking in on coming up the coast like it is now until a few days ago but GFS did (maybe my memory is off however, but I'm sure someone will correct me if wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 IF the Euro version is correct, maybe "close" for NYC on NE but not for us we were much colder and had no problem getting 3-5", with a few flashes of lightning and/or rumbles of thunder before the dry slot screwgied us I'm not sold on the Euro because the GFS has been doing better in the 5 day range than Euro....look at tomorrow's rain storm; I don't recall Euro locking in on coming up the coast like it is now until a few days ago but GFS did (maybe my memory is off however, but I'm sure someone will correct me if wrong) Mitch, at 120 hrs to 12z tomorrow the closest any gfs ens member had rain was in Wilmington NC. I posted a screen shot of them earlier in this thread. I expect we still have virtually anything possible for the upcoming week. I would think that within 96 hours we will have a decent notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm with those opposed. If it's info not readily available, fine. If it's the 48 hour NAM precip, no. We all know where to find that stuff. Lolz...you posted an 84 hr NAM mapz within the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I am much more of a casual interested person. HPC cut and pastes are fine with me, and helpful. Another take on what's happening, not gospel, but of interest. I don't have time to live and work several websites, I look to this one to give me many opinions on what's ahead. I can't take the ALL CAPS. Makes my eyes burn, and I honestly don't read those things unless someone highlights a certain piece of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I agree. Each thread tells a story. Having all the info on a period of time consolidated into a thread can be quite useful even national NWS forecast outlooks. That cut and paste sure beats the hell outta "The GFS looks great" or "Looks like the Euro caved". At least there is some substance to the cut and paste. post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Lolz...you posted an 84 hr NAM mapz within the last few days I guess you need things simplified. The NAM post was for Tuesday. Mitch and I were discussing Sunday. Try to keep up. And it's post 153 of this thread that I was talking about Chief Brody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 this is the most important run of the GFS since the run JI's wife made for the bedroom door when he jumped into bed last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Fast and crappy on the GFS. Precip producing frontal zone never sags far enough south. Not taping much moisture either. Edit: Not one drop through 120. Low over the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Fast and crappy on the GFS. Precip producing frontal zone never sags far enough south. Not taping much moisture either. Edit: Not one drop through 120. Low over the 40/70 benchmark. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=117ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_117_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Another different outcome. What to think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Fast and crappy on the GFS. Precip producing frontal zone never sags far enough south. Not taping much moisture either. Edit: Not one drop through 120. Low over the 40/70 benchmark. Kinda sucks for everyone, even in the SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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