Amped Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Need the confluence further south, or just less of a northern stream or whatever we say every time a model shows a Miller B too far north. And although the area has been screwed by Miller Bs they've also been some of our biggest storms, so I can't say I hate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I know how much wes loves when the 850 runs well north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm hearing that the ensembles back the op The ens mean looks a little flatter to me but that could just be meaning out the different solutions which often gives a flatter look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm hearing that the ensembles back the op So now all of a sudden the euro ensembles back the op as a northern storm? I haven't looked though. Wonder what DT will say now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just checked the D+8 superens analogs centered on the 5th which would include the 3rd. Nothing scientific about it but the analogs really liked snow. 6 of 10 had snow within the window. Four of the six where in the 3-5 inch range, the others were lighter. The top analog was dec 24, 1962 the second ranked was Dec 29, 1967. We still don't know much except there is potential for some snow but we still have a good chance of getting a miller b evolution which can sometimes produce if the low redevelops far enough south. Well this is at least a positive sign. I can't remember when we had that many favorable snowy analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I know how much wes loves when the 850 runs well north of us. I don't like seeing the 850 low to the north but if the sfc low develops quick enough off the NC coast, a new 850 low may form. The euro ensemble have the low off the coast at 132 hrs. I think it's a better look than the operational though that could be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm hearing that the ensembles back the op not really seeing that...not as amped but further south reformation(near carolina coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SOME TIME BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS MOST NOW DEPICT A DIGGING TROUGH. BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH STILL DIFFER GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. GENERALLY STUCK TO WPC GUIDANCE...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP WITH AMPLE ARCTIC AIR NEARBY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 i fail to see the need cutting and pasting from HPC or wherever you are cutting from....we have all the info dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 i fail to see the need cutting and pasting from HPC or wherever you are cutting from....we have all the info dude X10. or an AFD, local point and click or AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 i fail to see the need cutting and pasting from HPC or wherever you are cutting from....we have all the info dude projecting your frustration on others won't change the weather "dude" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 i fail to see the need cutting and pasting from HPC or wherever you are cutting from....we have all the info dude Ironic coming from someone whose posts 100 different ways of saying winter is over 7 days into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I like the cutting and pasting. Going to countless website for updated info, readings, forecasts, models... Ain't Nobody Got Time For That! easy to just hit refresh on here as needed; Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 DT is flopping around like a river trout right now. His acolytes' heads are exploding. DT will be so busy tracking MammaBear72's route home from BFE Tennessee to BFE West Virginia that he may not have time to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm with those opposed. If it's info not readily available, fine. If it's the 48 hour NAM precip, no. We all know where to find that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 DT is flopping around like a river trout right now. His acolytes' heads are exploding. DT will be so busy tracking MammaBear72's route home from BFE Tennessee to BFE West Virginia that he may not have time to make a forecast. I love reading the comments on his FB. Speaking of DT and his forecasts, nobody has mentioned the storm on the 31st he forecasts for Mid/Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Mesoscale shorterm forecasts are usually the only AFD's I appreciate being posted, all others I agree with the consensus of not posing them, they are usually just clutter (no offense to the mets.), especially since we get Met. input on this board already from some of the best in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Eh if it's sporadic and useful cutting and pasting is a big part of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Eh if it's sporadic and useful cutting and pasting is a big part of the board. Heck, I do it all the time. It's easier to explain thoughts with pictures but I'm also one who doesn't mind looking at the various discussion as I normally won't go looking for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Eh if it's sporadic and useful cutting and pasting is a big part of the board. I agree. Each thread tells a story. Having all the info on a period of time consolidated into a thread can be quite useful even national NWS forecast outlooks. That cut and paste sure beats the hell outta "The GFS looks great" or "Looks like the Euro caved". At least there is some substance to the cut and paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 DT is flopping around like a river trout right now. His acolytes' heads are exploding. DT will be so busy tracking MammaBear72's route home from BFE Tennessee to BFE West Virginia that he may not have time to make a forecast. I don't know what to make of his posts. "12z Euro bad for Va snow lovers" is sandwiched between "life threatening cold" and "12z Euro brings low south giving widespread snow to va and all of Maryland". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like the jury is in! Cut and paste it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know what to make of his posts. "12z Euro bad for Va snow lovers" is sandwiched between "life threatening cold" and "12z Euro brings low south giving widespread snow to va and all of Maryland".[/quote Was wondering same thing. Could he have meant "12z Euro Ensembles"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know what to make of his posts. "12z Euro bad for Va snow lovers" is sandwiched between "life threatening cold" and "12z Euro brings low south giving widespread snow to va and all of Maryland". He posted Jis' favorite, the control run of the euro ensembles and acted like it was a new forecast when it's just a lower resolution forecast than the operational. I ended up posting on his site that he needed to make that clear. The euro ensemble mean is more in line with the control than the operational which makes you wonder a little about the more suppressed look to the ensemble mean may be partly due to the resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Heck, I do it all the time. It's easier to explain thoughts with pictures but I'm also one who doesn't mind looking at the various discussion as I normally won't go looking for them.Yeah same. There is overkill at times but also some value. Hopefully most who do it are looking for that kind of value. The worst is pasting a live/time sensitive image in a model thread or something.. Going back to look at a snowstorm in July shows us all excited about a mega ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know what to make of his posts. "12z Euro bad for Va snow lovers" is sandwiched between "life threatening cold" and "12z Euro brings low south giving widespread snow to va and all of Maryland".[/quote Was wondering same thing. Could he have meant "12z Euro Ensembles"? hmm idk, it confused me as well, I haven't see the euro ensembles to know if he meant that. I hope he meant that cause if not one statement contradicts another lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looky here a copy paste job!! This is a portion of the Mount Holly AFD concerning the late week event. I found it somewhat amusing and interesting to see their thoughts on the key features and how the current model guidance is handling it, and possible outcomes going forward. ANOTHER DAY CLOSER, BUT NOT MUCH CONSENSUS YET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WE HAVE SEEN A MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FOURSOUNDING RUNS. IF THE ONLY CONSISTENCY OF DETAILS HAS BEEN THEINCONSISTENCY, THEN THE ONLY CONSENSUS AT ALL IS THAT OUR CWA WILLBE AFFECTED. COLD, DRY AIR WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IN PLACE. THE TWOIMPORTANT PLAYERS: THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY, HOW LONG WILL ITDAWDLE. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS FASTER EJECTING IT THAN LAST NIGHT, BUTSTILL SLOW OVERALL. ANYTIME THE ECMWF HANGS IT BACK MORE THAN ANYOTHER MODEL, ITS NOT A CONFIDENT FEELING. THE SECOND PLAYER IS THEENERGY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA AROUND 12Z ON NEW YEARS EVE. THISPIECE OF ENERGY DIGS THE TROF. HERE WE STILL HAVE THE UKMET ANDCAN GGEM DIGGING THE TROF FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE ECMWF TRENDINGWEST AND THE GFS THE LATEST TO DIG IT FARTHER EAST. THE OUTCOMEGIVES A PLETHORA OF MODELING SOLUTIONS FROM MORE RAIN THAN SNOWFOR THE CAN GGEM, TO THE MILLER B SOMEONE WILL GET THE SNOW SHAFTECMWF TO THE MOSTLY SNOW BUT WEAK GFS. WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANFLATTER THAN THE OP GFS (ALTHOUGH TWO MEMBERS ARE ON THE RAINYSIDE), NAEFS HARDLY BUDGED FROM 00Z. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THATTHE OP ECMWF IS FARTHER NW THAN ITS PRESENT ENSEMBLE MEAN WITHTHIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE OP JMASOLUTION. THE THOUGHT PROCESS WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TO LEAN TOWARD THEBETTER CONSENSUS DIGGIER SOLUTIONS, THE ONLY SOLUTION WE ARETAKING OFF THE TABLE IS NOTHING WILL HAPPEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 hmm idk, it confused me as well, I haven't see the euro ensembles to know if he meant that. I hope he meant that cause if not one statement contradicts another lol He posted the control run of the ensemble suite like it was the euro. It's a lower res version with the same initial conditions as the operational. He may have meant to post the ens mean which is farther south and more in line with what he was saying but that is not what he said or posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 He posted the control run of the ensemble suite like it was the euro. It's a lower res version with the same initial conditions as the operational. He may have meant to post the ens mean which is farther south and more in line with what he was saying but that is not what he said or posted. ahh ok tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 He posted the control run of the ensemble suite like it was the euro. It's a lower res version with the same initial conditions as the operational. He may have meant to post the ens mean which is farther south and more in line with what he was saying but that is not what he said or posted. Plus it was from the 0z ctrl run, not the 12z ctrl run, couldn't tell if we wanted to say with that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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