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January Pattern Discussion


NorthArlington101

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2-3" is fine. And probably the most realistic in terms of snow. I haven't looked at analogs today but what we've seen over the last few days are almost no analogs with big storms. Pattern doesn't support it. I'd be surprised by a cold 4-6" event. Tricky 1-3" event seems most probable or just a complete bust

 

I pretty much agree and note that the weatherbell snow product is probably wrong as the 850s go to above freezing.  Right now I'd be happy with an inch as the pattern is slipping away again for awhile towards the end of the run.

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I pretty much agree and note that the weatherbell snow product is probably wrong as the 850s go to above freezing.  Right now I'd be happy with an inch as the pattern is slipping away again for awhile towards the end of the run.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

maybe, sorta'

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I pretty much agree and note that the weatherbell snow product is probably wrong as the 850s go to above freezing.  Right now I'd be happy with an inch as the pattern is slipping away again for awhile towards the end of the run.

there looks to be a cold front coming in at 240 that would make us cold again

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Just checked the D+8 superens analogs centered on the 5th which would include the 3rd.  Nothing scientific about it but the analogs really liked snow.  6 of 10 had snow within the window.  Four of the six where in the 3-5 inch range,  the others were lighter.  The top analog was dec 24, 1962 the second ranked was Dec 29, 1967.  We still don't know much except there is potential for some snow but we still have a good chance of getting a miller b evolution which can sometimes produce if the low redevelops far enough south. 

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The Euro is better than the GFS was with the secondary popping at OC, MD. If it pops in NC I think we are ok. Of course there will be a dry slot somewhere that gets screwed. But at least someone will see snow out of it.

Get a primary far enough east and we might might make out with a good front end.

Far enough east and south and we might get nc development.

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Wasn't that storm miller b(ish)? I can't remember much about it, other than the shoveling.

The 10th was a classic miller b.   The Feb 5/6 storm alwasy had a low crossing the gulf states to the southeast though it did develop a surface reflection of the upper low in KY but still had the other low tracking along to the south with the southern low always at least as deep and the one that popped in Ky.  You might call it a hybrid but to me was more of a classic Miller A since it always had a southern low. 

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