snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 There's almost no way the Euro from last night will verify IMO.. sure you can say that for pretty much any run at this range but the way it comes together is pretty unlikely around here. I guess in the cup half full version is gives us legit hope for something to happen v nothing. that is the problem...the euro gave us the perfect solution 5 days out...and as you say it is a tricky sequence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, ANDNORTHEAST......INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTICSTATES...THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUMRANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEANAS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITYAND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPEOF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THEONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THEFAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OFNORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THEEAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROMTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELLBELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THENORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDEROF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, ANDNORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCEFOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALFOF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HASMARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVESOVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINETHIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 hey Ian, just curious if you think we need a sub thread for the jan 2-4th event? I think we should wait until tomorrow or monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think we should wait until tomorrow or monday...Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 no easy win with this one, as with most....especially with the Miller B possibility...it is always possible the northern stream just pushes everything out of the way..Plus it is 5 days before the snow starts and the models don't have a lot of skill from this range, esp with details....so we'll be tracking this one til it's close....it isn't like the southern stream event in early december when the models locked in early.....there is too much tricky stream interaction... I agree, I don't see that the probability for an inch during the week has changed much since I wrote my article...still in the 30-40 percent range. If the euro keeps to its guns through Monday, then I'll get excited. Otherwise, it and its ensembles are still one of many solutions. The arctic air makes it an interesting set up if we can get enough amplitude to track a vort south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Agreed. Second that motion. We have one model run with it's ensembles showing accumulating snow. Let's get some support for a widespread event first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014 ...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST... ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTIC STATES... THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITY AND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THE ONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THE EAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND NORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALF OF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HAS MARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVES OVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. CISCO good to see that NOAA is on board at least with the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I agree with matt. Mon-tues. If models lock into a ns dominant miller b then a thread won't be necessary at all. Last night euro was pretty but it was more of a hope booster than snow expecter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think we should wait until tomorrow or monday... ok good idea, I was just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The GFS has a completely different look from last night. Almost no SS energy at all. Just some energy diving out of the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like the GFS is gonna give us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'd be thrilled wirh a gfs like solution. Cold snow and ok vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I agree, I don't see that the probability for an inch during the week has changed much since I wrote my article...still in the 30-40 percent range. If the euro keeps to its guns through Monday, then I'll get excited. Otherwise, it and its ensembles are still one of many solutions. The arctic air makes it an interesting set up if we can get enough amplitude to track a vort south of us. This is what we need. At least for those of us to NW. At least it seems likely that temps will not be an issue for anyone. Hopefully the vort is stronger than the models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You know things are bad when you're city gets mentioned in a national discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'd be thrilled wirh a gfs like solution. Cold snow and ok vort pass. Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like less than 0.1" liquid on the GFS. Granted it's cold snow..but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS has no SS vort at all. Model mayhem continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like less than 0.1" liquid on the GFS. Granted it's cold snow..but.. Yeah, I'm not seeing anything to be excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like less than 0.1" liquid on the GFS. Granted it's cold snow..but.. Not going verbatim. No low to the nw and vort passing south.Take chances all day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS would likely break the DCA streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Not going verbatim. No low to the nw and vort passing south.Take chances all day there. I'm with you, the low also squeezes out to our south. It's still not where we want it but would take little for us to get more qpf than being forecast by the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, I'm not seeing anything to be excited about A little more amp and a touch south would burn up the server. My bar is 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS still looks better than it did, and it's timing is a good 12 hours slower, more in line with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS still looks better than it did, and it's timing is a good 12 hours slower, more in line with the euro. looks much better.... hr 135.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks great. Euro inboard too. Hope we can keep defeated weenies at at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 A little more amp and a touch south would burn up the server. My bar is 2-4. Ok, I looked at the h5 maps and it does look more impressive than the surface story tells. 2 to 4 would be like 2010 all over again for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS would likely break the DCA streak... yes it would but remember its still 135 hrs away still 6 days to go a lot can and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We need at least a .30 qpf storm in the cold. The euro is ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I like the cold wave, looks like two night's with the lows down in the mid teens even around the city. I'm not liking what I see after week one but that's a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This looks like a northern mid Atlantic /sne event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 We need at least a .30 qpf storm in the cold. The euro is ideal I'd take a solid 2-3 inch event. It would double my total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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