Scraff Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Good morning all. So the King is showing us some love last night I see. DT also honking this morning. I know this is far from locked, but what trends are we rooting for today to ensure an easy win. I hate nail biters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 To give him credit, DT has been honking about this for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WxBell has a pilot of Euro 2m Temp probabilities which is pretty cool to play around with. It's showing a roughly 10-20% chance of min 2m temps less than 10 degrees next Saturday (after the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I love when there are 15 posts in a row about a storm with no ref to when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I love when there are 15 posts in a row about a storm with no ref to when. Next week unless there is no storm then maybe never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I love when there are 15 posts in a row about a storm with no ref to when. Thurs/Thurs Nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Next week unless there is no storm then maybe never. Yeah I pieced it together eventually. I guess it's the same period people who look were looking at for a while. At least Highzenberg is excited about something that's not 15 days away. I'm kinda bummed I left SPI in hiding.. I was tempted to bring it out last night again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah I pieced it together eventually. I guess it's the same period people who look were looking at for a while. At least Highzenberg is excited about something that's not 15 days away. I'm kinda bummed I left SPI in hiding.. I was tempted to bring it out last night again. We've been watching the period for probably too long. Gfs kinds sniffed it out @ 300+ hours and has never really lost it. Just comes up with 4 new solutions a day. Euro last night was the first op run that gave us an modest accum of all snow. Euro has jumped every run itself. My takeaway from last night is that the ens members showing a similar solution must not be totally out to lunch. And we shouldn't expect much unless there is some consensus in the Sun-mon timeframe or even later. Typical ns vorts zipping in fast flow that sometimes interact with the ss energy and sometimes not. Small changes in strength and timing makes big changes with sensible wx. Broken record of late. If you want to be an optimist there has been some solid ens support for something last couple days but plenty of spread. Op runs have been bearish in comparison. If you want to be a pessimist just remember where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Maybe it's a good thing that there's little support for that with the gfs suite. That euro run sure looked nice on the wunderground maps. gfs is acting goofy again, I like the placement of the low on the euro a week out, I don't wanna be in the bullseye a week in advance. it looks promising for mid atl. just have too see if it holds this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'll wait for another run before I get excited. The models haven't been stable and this probably is a blip. I'm still excited for something happening next week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 some bunnies would be murdered if the nam verified http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah I pieced it together eventually. I guess it's the same period people who look were looking at for a while. At least Highzenberg is excited about something that's not 15 days away. I'm kinda bummed I left SPI in hiding.. I was tempted to bring it out last night again. I didn't know there was anything else to track except for the Jan 2-3. People track cold and that's cool and all-- but things don't look extra awesome in cold. (Yes, I'm sure there are a few exceptions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We've been watching the period for probably too long. Gfs kinds sniffed it out @ 300+ hours and has never really lost it. Just comes up with 4 new solutions a day. Euro last night was the first op run that gave us an modest accum of all snow. Euro has jumped every run itself. My takeaway from last night is that the ens members showing a similar solution must not be totally out to lunch. And we shouldn't expect much unless there is some consensus in the Sun-mon timeframe or even later. Typical ns vorts zipping in fast flow that sometimes interact with the ss energy and sometimes not. Small changes in strength and timing makes big changes with sensible wx. Broken record of late. If you want to be an optimist there has been some solid ens support for something last couple days but plenty of spread. Op runs have been bearish in comparison. If you want to be a pessimist just remember where we live. Bob, your becoming a good poster....slowly reigning in your uber optimistic self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We've been watching the period for probably too long. Gfs kinds sniffed it out @ 300+ hours and has never really lost it. Just comes up with 4 new solutions a day. Euro last night was the first op run that gave us an modest accum of all snow. Euro has jumped every run itself. My takeaway from last night is that the ens members showing a similar solution must not be totally out to lunch. And we shouldn't expect much unless there is some consensus in the Sun-mon timeframe or even later. Typical ns vorts zipping in fast flow that sometimes interact with the ss energy and sometimes not. Small changes in strength and timing makes big changes with sensible wx. Broken record of late. If you want to be an optimist there has been some solid ens support for something last couple days but plenty of spread. Op runs have been bearish in comparison. If you want to be a pessimist just remember where we live. what makes me laugh is the few people ive seen on here over the last 3 years that will see their dream storm on the 18z or 06z gfs and be posting snowfall maps and clown maps a week in advance.... 7 days out? lol I try to tell then that the models will change about 10 times by then but they never learn. ok now that im off my soapbox, im thinking a gradual trend nw in euro over next 6 days is certainly not out of the question. I don't think we need to worry about whether the 850s will be cold enough this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I didn't know there was anything else to track except for the Jan 2-3. People track cold and that's cool and all-- but things don't look extra awesome in cold. (Yes, I'm sure there are a few exceptions)I guess not. It was just an interesting observation while reading this morning that no one mentioned dates or times really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I guess not. It was just an interesting observation while reading this morning that no one mentioned dates or times really. I just assumed we were talking about the jan 2-4th event cause the 29-30 event is a rain maker for me in md lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I just assumed we were talking about the jan 2-4th event cause the 29-30 event is a rain maker for me in md lolIt's prob my bad. Things only come on my radar about hr 180. I will never have a storm named after me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This is for Thursday right? Man....that's like a year away!!!! I guess Ian has me blocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's prob my bad. Things only come on my radar about hr 180. I will never have a storm named after me. uhoh Ian u shoulda never said that now if this storm turns out to be big it will be called the IAN storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I guess Ian has me blocked huh? I can't see what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That little distrubance on 12/31 looks like it is trending north on NAM w/ precip field. May give us a little surprise base on which the 1/3 storm can build! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That little distrubance on 12/31 looks like it is trending north on NAM w/ precip field. May give us a little surprise base on which the 1/3 storm can build! that looks like rain for md , im looking at the jan 2-4th event to be more for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 huh? I can't see what you're saying. Funny...nam pretty consistent with a frigid cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Funny...nam pretty consistent with a frigid cartopper I did see your post fwiw. I you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Honestly looking at that map I just posted I'm surprised it doesn't fully blow up, would expect a NW trend if that map is right. Starting to get excited. hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Honestly looking at that map I just posted I'm surprised it doesn't fully blow up, would expect a NW trend if that map is right. Starting to get excited. still got plenty of time for it to blow up lol, still a week out, im sure it will trend nw and get stronger as the week rolls on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Good morning all. So the King is showing us some love last night I see. DT also honking this morning. I know this is far from locked, but what trends are we rooting for today to ensure an easy win. I hate nail biters! no easy win with this one, as with most....especially with the Miller B possibility...it is always possible the northern stream just pushes everything out of the way..Plus it is 5 days before the snow starts and the models don't have a lot of skill from this range, esp with details....so we'll be tracking this one til it's close....it isn't like the southern stream event in early december when the models locked in early.....there is too much tricky stream interaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 still got plenty of time for it to blow up lol, still a week out, im sure it will trend nw and get stronger as the week rolls on It is a 4-6" snowstorm with temps like 18-22 during the event...in a so-so pattern, where a lot of other possibilities can happen, most bad for us....there is no trend....this is the ideal solution....Icez lives in Philly and it didn't nail him so he doesnt love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 no easy win with this one, as with most....especially with the Miller B possibility...it is always possible the northern stream just pushes everything out of the way..Plus it is 5 days before the snow starts and the models don't have a lot of skill from this range, esp with details....so we'll be tracking this one til it's close....it isn't like the southern stream event in early december when the models locked in early.....there is too much tricky stream interaction... There's almost no way the Euro from last night will verify IMO.. sure you can say that for pretty much any run at this range but the way it comes together is pretty unlikely around here. I guess in the cup half full version is gives us legit hope for something to happen v nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 hey Ian, just curious if you think we need a sub thread for the jan 2-4th event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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