Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 the gfs enesmbles really show a tanking -AO. Wes should be excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 if I'm not mistaken, this storm in a week was supposed to be a major East Coast storm of some type. A few days ago the models were showing even a negative tilt to the storm.maybe in future runs we'lll start to see that scenario come back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro looks like it may be a step in the right direction for the 1/3 event. Pretty moisture laden at 132 from the gulf, cold air is in the place. High pressure over Northern MI looks to be in a good place if it continues to slide east. Could be a bonified Miller A IF the precip shield doesn't get crushed. Edit: The high drops down to Ohio in Hr 150. Effectively crushing any precip. BUT at least the cold air is in place in this run (versus the warm last run). the differences between 12z and 0z is very uncharacteristic for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro looks like it may be a step in the right direction for the 1/3 event. Pretty moisture laden at 132 from the gulf, cold air is in the place. High pressure over Northern MI looks to be in a good place if it continues to slide east. Could be a bonified Miller A IF the precip shield doesn't get crushed. Very compressed and flat flow overhead and to the n. Verbatim it can't do much except swim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 last 2 runs the gfs and euro are moving towards each other. They are very far apart in handling the ns vort and the interaction (or lack thereof). Remains are very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Very compressed and flat flow overhead and to the n. Verbatim it can't do much except swim. Agreed. The Euro also shows us not getting out of the low-mid 20's on the 3rd. Cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Agreed. The Euro also shows us not getting out of the low-mid 20's on the 3rd. Cold day. I'm good both globals at this lead. SS vort on the euro being suppressed only has one place to go. 12z is a step from 0z. GEFS has some euro like solutions as well. I suppose it's very possible for everything to stay underneath us but not much has this year. Quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro is what I expect...a 0.4" cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Very compressed and flat flow overhead and to the n. Verbatim it can't do much except swim. The euro flow can nickle us and actually does give us 0.10" liquid eq as snow. That doesn't mean much. Still lots of uncertainty. While I'm not super happy with the Jan 1-3 period, I'm not ready to completely write it off for an inch or greater snow event. Ji, I'm not really excited by the long range GEFS ens mean, as long as it keeps heights high along and south of Nova Scotia, we'll have trouble holding cold air in with any strong system. I also don't like the ridge backing up so far int he Pacific and going back to a negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro is what I expect...a 0.4" cartopper Maybe I thought I saw 0.10 but could have misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 3rd is really brutal and takes the min down to the low teens the morning of the 3rd and has the highs in the mid 20s during the day. That would fit the analogs from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro has some flurries, but mainly it's cold and suppressed. This is good, I don't want to see the storm until 72hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 By 216 hrs the ride pops back up in western Canada as another low passes to our north so it looks like another cold shot would come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 By 216 hrs the ride pops back up in western Canada as another low passes to our north so it looks like another cold shot would come. A far cry from 0z. The more cold we have, the more random chances we get. I'm happy with the look today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Maybe I thought I saw 0.10 but could have misread it. no..I am just assuming it won't be an inch..but I think you are right... once this rain storm nicks us, we are northern stream dominant the whole run...pretty much what I figured by this point in winter..cold=weak southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro is awful slow moving the ss vort across the sw and mexico. Seen that a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro is awful slow moving the ss vort across the sw and mexico. Seen that a million times. That is a Euro Bias-- not saying it's wrong this time, but it's legit. Could just exit earlier and get sheared, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro is awful slow moving the ss vort across the sw and mexico. Seen that a million times. That is a Euro Bias-- not saying it's wrong this time, but it's legit. Could just exit earlier and get sheared, but.. we know it doesn't matter...it will be impotent and a non factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Very compressed and flat flow overhead and to the n. Verbatim it can't do much except swim. Which was my concern all along. We need a stronger vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Pretty big differences between GFS & EURO, I wonder who will win!?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 we know it doesn't matter...it will be impotent and a non factor It could be a non event but a definitive call at this lead comes with risk. I'll bump this post when I'm shoveling next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It could be a non event but a definitive call at this lead comes with risk. I'll bump this post when I'm shoveling next week. euro ens more bullish than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 FWIW, the Euro is on its own with the pattern end of next week..so maybe it is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 euro ens more bullish than the OP Its intriguing. Ops won't give it up but there are enough good members to keep hope alive. Almost enough to have reserved optimism but until the ops start agreeing closer in its just tossing darts. I like this threat but that shouldn't surprise anyone here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 FWIW, the Euro is on its own with the pattern end of next week..so maybe it is wrong The GFS doesn't look that great unless you cherry pick ens members. Is the Euro worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 FWIW, Operational EURO gives BWI (DCA) 0.06/0.05 of precipitation with the 1/1-1/2 storm. Glad to hear the ensembles are more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro ens mean looks pretty bleh thru the run. I'm about to punt the first half of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro ens mean looks pretty bleh thru the run. I'm about to punt the first half of Jan. that's been a good forecast here since 1996 I believe even the 1st half of Jan in 03 and 10 were nothing special but cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 that's been a good forecast here since 1996 I believe even the 1st half of Jan in 03 and 10 were nothing special but cold we had a 3-5" snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good CAD signature develops on the GFS. Too bad there's no precip signature. That's what lows in Chicago do for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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