usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 My WAG, is we will have to deal with a vortex in somewhat bad position the rest of the winter. It is probably the most stable feature we have seen. It will keep getting replaced. So we are going to have to figure out ways to get snow despite this impediment. If so that will make your winter call a decent one though the 1st 5 days on Jan are going to be on the cold side. The trough shifting into the west should give us another warm spell down the road. If we can build back the ridge into AK, we might get another spell like early dec but with colder air. Messy but might get a modest event and then ice or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If so that will make your winter call a decent one though the 1st 5 days on Jan are going to be on the cold side. The trough shifting into the west should give us another warm spell down the road. If we can build back the ridge into AK, we might get another spell like early dec but with colder air. Messy but might get a modest event and then ice or something. Yeah...+2 is still pretty cold in January. Would be a -2 in December and a -1 in February, so we will still have some meaningful cold shots...I'm hoping climo overwhelms the so-so pattern and we can get a 3-5" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Complicated interaction with the 2 vorts remains. Not a fan of the pos tilt on this run but a southern low pops. Tough tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm encouraged that yesterday's 8-14 day forecast (based on weighted means of 00 and 12 UT ensemble means from GGEM, ECMWF and GFS) calls for below normal temperatures and average precipitation. Yes 36 and rain would quality as below average but "average" precipitation suggests several dice rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Complicated interaction with the 2 vorts remains. Not a fan of the pos tilt on this run but a southern low pops. Tough tough forecast. yeah...we do get some post frontal snow, but I am not sure what the temp profiles will be like and we never do very well with that scenario. I don't think it is as tough as a forecast as you. We are probably looking at a cartopper - 1" at some point...perhaps 2 episodes...I imagine I might be able to record 0.5" during the period which will get me to 2" on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 yeah...we do get some post frontal snow, but I am not sure what the temp profiles will be like and we never do very well with that scenario. I don't think it is as tough as a forecast as you. We are probably looking at a cartopper - 1" at some point...perhaps 2 episodes...I imagine I might be able to record 0.5" during the period which will get me to 2" on the season Surface goes below freezing somewhere between 162/165. Light event verbatim. I think it's a pretty complicated forecast in that we could have rain, rain and snow, dry, or snow. I guess the easy part is that if it snows nothing shows a good event. The vorts and tracks have zero consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Surface goes below freezing somewhere between 162/165. Light event verbatim. I think it's a pretty complicated forecast in that we could have rain, rain and snow, dry, or snow. I guess the easy part is that if it snows nothing shows a good event. The vorts and tracks have zero consensus. we saw a similar pattern 2/1-2 this year, and we got some random snows,...I think 0.5" twice or something like that....that is probably the best we are going to do in an adverse pattern with pieces dancing around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Ugly run....hardly any precip for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Ugly run....hardly any precip for us I'm pretty bummed...have to be honest...though I will enjoy a 0.75" if I get one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 .5 is not a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm pretty bummed...have to be honest...though I will enjoy a 0.75" if I get one You won't enjoy it...it will just make you mad that you spent 10 days tracking a 2 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You won't enjoy it...it will just make you mad that you spent 10 days tracking a 2 hour event Here is my forecast for immediate DC metro for 1/1-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Ugly run....hardly any precip for us 6z had a lot more precip. Subtle difference in evolution though. Maybe not so subtle. Happy hour is gonna rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Here is my forecast for immediate DC metro for 1/1-5 Northern Maryland got that in 30 minutes yesterday without anyone tracking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 6z had a lot more precip. Subtle difference in evolution though. Maybe not so subtle. Happy hour is gonna rock. More precip is rain less precip is snow. U know the drill. I was hoping it would go back to its solution from 4-5 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Maybe dr no will say no to us at 1:45 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 More precip is rain less precip is snow. U know the drill. I was hoping it would go back to its solution from 4-5 days ago I do know the drill. Expect nothing and still get mad when something isn't enough. I don't even want a perfect solution right now. No kidding either. It will only be a rug that gets pulled. We want our good solutions starting on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 6z had a lot more precip. Subtle difference in evolution though. Maybe not so subtle. Happy hour is gonna rock. We know the drill...northern stream nonsense when it is cold. I will have to decide whether I got 0.4" or 0.5" and someone from Lancaster, PA who hasn't posted since December 10th will post a banal, generic shot of 4" on his deck railing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Ugly run....hardly any precip for us Its not awful. Its one op run. Any op run of any global model in this pattern, and at this lead time, should be looked at for mostly amusement purposes. The ensembles of both the Euro and the GFS have had a pretty consistent signal for a possible light to moderate event sometime late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Here ya go, Ji. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1053 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013VALID 12Z MON DEC 30 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014":...WINTRY PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...USED THE 00Z/27 ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-5, SWITCHING TO THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO MITIGATE THEINCREASING SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AT THAT TIME RANGE. THE 00Z/27 AND 06Z/27 MODEL CYCLES SAW A REVERSAL IN POSITIONS OFTHE GFS CAMP VERSUS THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FROM YESTERDAY, WITH THE GFS WARMING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY DAY 6 AND THE ECMWF ANDECENS MEAN COOLING THE SAME REGION. TRIED TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE MANUAL CHOICES FROM YESTERDAY. BESIDES THE NEXT ARCTICONSLAUGHT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, IT APPEARS AS IF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW DAYS 6 AND 7. ROUGHLY TWENTY PERCENT OF THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEMBERS INDICATE BETTER THAN A HALF-INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THAT REGION. A COUPLE MEMBERS DEPICT A MAJOR SNOWSTORM. FOR NOW, WILL REFLECT A MODEST QUARTER-INCH FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE 00Z/28 DAYS 6-7 QPF...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 i'm actually not bummed. Things are a lot more interesting on todays GFS than it seems. There are players on the field...it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly think we have an event on our hands next week. I'm actually kinda excited. Look at how that desert s/w just all of a sudden showed up on the GFS starting with last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Are the models just having a hard time with the evolving pattern? It seems like the teleconnections are there but the models are confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly think we have an event on our hands next week. I'm actually kinda excited. Look at how that desert s/w just all of a sudden showed up on the GFS starting with last night's run. I agree. This could be a sneaky widespread minor event (which is better than what we have had). I'm honestly surprised by the lack of consistency on the op Euro the last couple of runs. The changes from run to run in the pattern even in the medium range is concerning. It's hard to get behind any event until the Euro op shows snow (which it has not for 1/2-1/3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Are the models just having a hard time with the evolving pattern? It seems like the teleconnections are there but the models are confused. Def. below avg. confidence being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GEFS members all over the place. Just pick the one you like and hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GEFS members all over the place. Just pick the one you like and hug it. Do any show a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Do any show a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'll take p04 and stfu for rest of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 .5 is not a snow eventThat's a top 5 snow event in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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