jums300 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 1:51 AM, wxmeddler said: I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope. Is there some type of freezing line on this? Is it that dashed blue line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 1:57 AM, needbiggerboat said: A bit soon to be discussing Feb 3? ;-)yeah Im thinking 34 days May be a bit too much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 1:55 AM, jack_frost said: hope for central md?? Of course On 12/30/2013 at 1:57 AM, needbiggerboat said: A bit soon to be discussing Feb 3? ;-) Could be true. On 12/30/2013 at 2:03 AM, jums300 said: Is there some type of freezing line on this? Is it that dashed blue line? The tan line. Dashed blue is -10°C 850mb and the orange is +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Would it be possible for people who are quoting a post with a large image to snip out the image? That's a biggg picture to be showing up in every quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 1:58 AM, Bob Chill said: Yea, people seem to be getting hung up on op runs verbatim at long leads. The front is coming. It's pretty much a lock. Will it rain its eyeballs out before the cold and shut off? Sure is possible. Can the boundary drape and slow while impulses ride it? Just happened in Dec. Trough axis looks like the boundary will take its time pushing off the coast. This is a good thing. If it blasts through there won't be any time for meaningful precip. I'm interested in the period but already know the risks and flaws. It's worthy of meaningful disco and not thoughtless hit and runs. Yes. Thank you and wxmeddler for posting. I was feeling lonely. There's too much disagreement in those ensembles at a relatively short range to think there's a set in stone outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 1:51 AM, wxmeddler said: I'm yet holding at least a little bit of hope for the 2/3 event. IMHO there is really only 1 or two minor preventing at least a bit of snow. Ensambles give out hope. A couple of the others in that pic put out some front end stuff earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. Thank you and wxmeddler for posting. I was feeling lonely. There's too much disagreement in those ensembles at a relatively short range to think there's a set in stone outcome.actually Its still almost 100 hrs away so 5 days alot can and usually Does change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. Thank you and wxmeddler for posting. I was feeling lonely. There's too much disagreement in those ensembles at a relatively short range to think there's a set in stone outcome. I think I crossed signals with amped. I was speaking about the 6-7 timeframe. As for thurs, we need the global ops to start tonight and keep going. I'm pretty bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ive seen models shift abruptly 24 hrs before a storm before so anythings possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM shows a little better setup by Thursday morning. I know, don't laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The NAM has the 850 low well north of us at 84 hrs with the 850 temp already above freezing. It's still pretty bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:54 AM, usedtobe said: The NAM has the 850 low well north of us at 84 hrs with the 850 temp already above freezing. It's still pretty bad run. Gradual improvement is still improvident! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Meddler, look at the 21Z sref ensembles at 850 mb, all the members have the 850 circulation north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:54 AM, usedtobe said: The NAM has the 850 low well north of us at 84 hrs with the 850 temp already above freezing. It's still pretty bad run.well Its the Nam at 84 so Its not accurate anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:54 AM, usedtobe said: The NAM has the 850 low well north of us at 84 hrs with the 850 temp already above freezing. It's still pretty bad run. yet Wes, it has the vort max well south and diving SE toward the base at 84 hrs.....that make sense the 850 low would be so far north along with the slp? idk, just asking because I thought the vort max would have been further north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:54 AM, usedtobe said: The NAM has the 850 low well north of us at 84 hrs with the 850 temp already above freezing. It's still pretty bad run. Didn't you say if we could get coastal development far enough south that it could form a second 850 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:01 AM, mitchnick said: yet Wes, it has the vort max well south and diving SE toward the base at 84 hrs.....that make sense the 850 low would be so far north along with the slp? idk, just asking because I thought the vort max would have been further north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=eM Its the Nam hr 84 at the end of Its run . It will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:03 AM, jack_frost said: Its the Nam hr 84 at the end of Its run . It eill change Jack, how many times re the NAM? we know, we know, but it doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't talk about it until the rest of the mo0del suite comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:04 AM, mitchnick said: Jack, how many times re the NAM? we know, we know, but it doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't talk about it until the rest of the mo0del suite comes outHmm ok bud point taken I just dont put alot of stock in it thats All. But Its worth talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:03 AM, jack_frost said: Its the Nam hr 84 at the end of Its run . It will change Please, you've posted the same thing about every model about ten times. We all know it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:07 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Please, you've posted the same thing about every model about ten times. We all know it will change.yes i know thanks lol chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I just get tired of people getting overly excited and posting snow maps for models at the end of their range them they get mad when the models change thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 2:57 AM, usedtobe said: Meddler, look at the 21Z sref ensembles at 850 mb, all the members have the 850 circulation north of us. Prob nor much chance at getting it underneath us at this stage. Any thoughts on the arctic front early next week? Looks to be a good precip maker one way or another. Possibly multiple waves running up. I suppose it's our next chance at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 3:17 AM, Bob Chill said: Prob nor much chance at getting it underneath us at this stage. Any thoughts on the arctic front early next week? Looks to be a good precip maker one way or another. Possibly multiple waves running up. I suppose it's our next chance at anything. only thing I really saw was with the arctic air we could have temps 20-30 below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In case anyone was wondering, the 00Z is basically a textbook Miller B screwjob for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 4:00 AM, PhineasC said: In case anyone was wondering, the 00Z is basically a textbook Miller B screwjob for the MA. As expected. Certain setups rarely improve at this lead. We're getting off easy on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GFS op has been very consistent with its solution and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As expected...the gfs looks even worse. The models look locked in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 For anyone driving 12-15' inches for boston this run.... NYC south is a big fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 4:17 AM, Ji said: For anyone driving 12-15' inches for boston this run.... NYC south is a big fail Why is that comforting to me? #bitter? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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