aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Terrible analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro op is why we shouldn't start a thread for a day or two or longer. Until a screwjob becomes low odds I don't think a thread is a good idea. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:31 PM, snow. said: It's modeled but unlikely. Seems borderline. Probably a snowstorm. But I don't like the redevelopment so far north and inland. Verbatim still 3-4" for nw burbs. Less in DC where we mix. Maybe 2-3". careful with your wording lol...3-4 in NW burbs and 2-3 in DC isnt a small hit anymore in this day and age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:32 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro op is why we shouldn't start a thread for a day or two or longer. Until a screwjob becomes low odds I don't think a thread is a good idea. Jmho In that case we shouldn't start a thread until a few hours into the storm, at the earliest. This has screwjob written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:32 PM, Ji said: some people shouldnt be allowed to post model information until the run is over. Terrible tease Didn't mean to delete. Stupid iPhone. 3-4" for nw burbs 2-3" for DC with mixing. Not liking secondary developing so far north and inland. Huge screw job potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I agree that this solution is unusually and unlikely given the features and flow in front. Just another possibility and not cold snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:32 PM, Ji said: careful with your wording lol...3-4 in NW burbs and 2-3 in DC isnt a small hit anymore in this day and age lol true that's more then some have gotten in 2 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:33 PM, PhineasC said: In that case we shouldn't start a thread until a few hours into the storm, at the earliest. This has screwjob written all over it. We need the secondary further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:33 PM, PhineasC said: In that case we shouldn't start a thread until a few hours into the storm, at the earliest. This has screwjob written all over it. Gfs solution is fine wirh the vort pass and low development. I think either is equally likely. If screwjob potential becomes likely then a screwjob thread it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:34 PM, Bob Chill said: I agree that this solution is unusually and unlikely given the features and flow in front. Just another possibility and not cold snow verbatim. Parallel redevelopment is unusual. Though the interaction makes it possible. Usually a low occluding in Kentucky isn't going to pop a secondary over the northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:36 PM, Bob Chill said: Gfs solution is fine wirh the vort pass and low development. I think either is equally likely. If screwjob potential becomes likely then a screwjob thread it is. Miller Bs really suck down here. I'm not liking that there are now 3 major models showing some type of variation of a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:35 PM, snow. said: We need the secondary further south I'm hoping the press of arctic air will cause that....way too far out there now to do anything but figure there are a handful of options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:38 PM, nflwxman said: Miller Bs really suck down here. I'm not liking that there are now 3 major models showing some type of variation of a Miller B. They can be ok if the primary is weak and/or we get front thumped. Usually there is a nasty dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:26 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Wow, euro actually looks great.... 1002 off the NJ coast, pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:41 PM, leesburg 04 said: image.jpg that was awful lol. Makes my postings look like Wes;s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 euro is a monster for the Northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:43 PM, Ji said: that was awful lol. Makes my postings look like Wes;s We need the primary further east. I think if we get that we do better on both ends. I wouldn't give up on a low off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:46 PM, snow. said: We need the primary further east. I think if we get that we do better on both ends. I wouldn't give up on a low off the Carolinas. I can't recall we had a redeveloper like that off the NC coast.....96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 These vague Euro descriptions from the "Euro is Great" to Euro is "Miller Bish" aren't helping. Can somebody actually post where the primary occludes and where the secondary takes over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:39 PM, leesburg 04 said: I'm hoping the press of arctic air will cause that....way too far out there now to do anything but figure there are a handful of options on the table. There are still lots of options. We need the confluence to hold a little better to weaken the primary and then get the low develop far enough south to get us. I think a miller b scenario is the most likely one but not with enough confidence to rule out last night's euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:48 PM, mitchnick said: I can't recall we had a redeveloper like that off the NC coast.....96? We've had plenty. Even as far south as charleston. We need the primary further east. There are a number of ways to get that. Or we just need a 0z solution. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Run is fine overall. No low on northern oh with Delmarva redevelopment We can do ok with a miller b as matt described. Secondary could take over quick and further south with a weak primary Still prefer the gfs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:50 PM, kurtstack said: These vague Euro descriptions from the "Euro is Great" to Euro is "Miller Bish" aren't helping. Can somebody actually post where the primary occludes and where the secondary takes over? I posted it. kY. Northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:46 PM, snow. said: We need the primary further east. I think if we get that we do better on both ends. I wouldn't give up on a low off the Carolinas. yep...still time for adjustments but we have seen this movie many times with regards to Miller B's. Euro gives us a quick nice burst but overall its a garbage run for us. Ready to drive lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:51 PM, snow. said: I posted it. kY. Northern neck. s0rry must have missed that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:52 PM, Ji said: yep...still time for adjustments but we have seen this movie many times with regards to Miller B's. Euro gives us a quick nice burst but overall its a garbage run for us. Ready to drive lol? 2-3" is fine. And probably the most realistic in terms of snow. I haven't looked at analogs today but what we've seen over the last few days are almost no analogs with big storms. Pattern doesn't support it. I'd be surprised by a cold 4-6" event. Tricky 1-3" event seems most probable or just a complete bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro is about .40 all snow for JYO...same for DC but more mixy...and thats for a pretty norther primary and secondary development. A bit further south and we would be much happier. Great run for NYC and Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:32 PM, Ji said: careful with your wording lol...3-4 in NW burbs and 2-3 in DC isnt a small hit anymore in this day and ageIf you get 3-4" you will be complaining two days later that it never snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On 12/28/2013 at 6:59 PM, Ji said: Euro is about .40 all snow for JYO...same for DC but more mixy...and thats for a pretty norther primary and secondary development. A bit further south and we would be much happier. Great run for NYC and Boston what's it show for the hamlets around BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Boston 1-2 feet of snow. I really hate us and them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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