January Pattern Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Will the models win out and the snow drought ends, or will DCA hold onto its record of disappointing snow lovers?

[PhineasC]

Sounds like a pretty good period upcoming, at least by the standards of the last few years. Still looking for that elusive 3-5 inch areawide event. 

[Bob Chill]

Based on all guidance the last 3 days or so if the models win the weenies win. Not really an or kinda thing. The only losers on the 18z gfs op run would be pepco and bg&e

[usedtobe]

Based on all guidance the last 3 days or so if the models win the weenies win. Not really an or kinda thing. The only losers on the 18z gfs op run would be pepco and bg&e

DT actually defended me on CWG. He was not very diplomatic......but nonetheless it was a pleasant surprise.  I haven't looked at the 18Z GFS but from his comments it must look pretty good.

[snow.]

DT actually defended me on CWG. He was not very diplomatic......but nonetheless it was a pleasant surprise.  I haven't looked at the 18Z GFS but from his comments it must look pretty good.

 

If you like a huge snow to ice storm it is good

[usedtobe]

If you like a huge snow to ice storm it is good

I think for a big storm that's about the best we could do.  For all snow we need weak and fast.  Hope something verifies so I don't look like a dummy to those with reading comprehension problems. 

[NorthArlington101]

If you like a huge snow to ice storm it is good

I like my snow below ice. It keeps it around longer. 

 

Actually, is there more benefit to the snow being above the ice? I'd love someone to enlighten me... 

[snow.]

I think for a big storm that's about the best we could do.  For all snow we need weak and fast.  Hope something verifies so I don't look like a dummy to those with reading comprehension problems. 

 

I am going to stop trying to measure expectations because people find it annoying....there isn't much you can do...other than maybe bold "30-40%"?  people only comprehend what they want

[usedtobe]

The 18Z ensembles have a number of nice looking members.   I guess that is the strong signal that DT was talking about. 

[usedtobe]

I am going to stop trying to measure expectations because people find it annoying....there isn't much you can do...other than maybe bold "30-40%"?  people only comprehend what they want

I'm convinced quite a few people comment without reading anything but the 1st couple of lines.  I think maybe bolding would help but only if the 30-40% was mentioned in the 1st paragraph or two.

[WinterWxLuvr]

If you like a huge snow to ice storm it is good

My favorite. Once the temps fall behind the storm you've got concrete that "normal" temps are powerless against.

[Bob Chill]

Wes, you can lead a horse but....

Not sure how your article could have been more clear. I dunno. Maybe less is more for those who cant absorb what I thought was a very straightforward and thoughtful article. I guess Twitter heads can't handle more than 140 characters.

[Ian]

Most snow lovers are side hobbyists IMO. At this pt locally we've talked a whole lot about snow that doesn't happen for about 3 years. I think more or less clearly but also intermixed with a few busts for the city. I haven't read the comments but think there is some general 'false snow warning' fatigue.

[Fozz]

My favorite. Once the temps fall behind the storm you've got concrete a glacier that "normal" temps are powerless against.

 

fyp

[aldie 22]

According to the 0z gfs....I really really wish it was January 1st already

[Ian]

According to the 0z gfs....I really really wish it was January 1st already

Lotsa cold mixed with some cold rain.

[Bob Chill]

Lotsa cold mixed with some cold rain.

Cold rain and colder cold. Pattern changes never fail to produce expected results with new ingredients

[poolz1]

Been lurking for a while…great info on this forum.  Keep up the great work and analysis!    Weather is not my profession but it tends to take up a lot of my time, especially in the winter months. 

 

00z gfs continues the trend/signal of a harsh winter pattern.  Who could complain about an h5 look like this?

 

[WVclimo]

Cold rain and colder cold. Pattern changes never fail to produce expected results with new ingredients

Not a new ingredient for this model, but hours 372-384 challenge the coldest day ever here. No matter what, the bottom always falls out of the GFS days 14-16.

[Bob Chill]

00z gfs continues the trend/signal of a harsh winter pattern. Who could complain about an h5 look like this?

Verbatim the flow in front sucks. Slp will walk right up to our west and weenies will be taking numbers at the ledge.

But the signal is there. And doesn't seem to want to go away for now. We went from epic snow to epic snow ice to ghastly rain in 18 hours. And if the cycle repeats tomorrow and the next 5 days I wouldnt be surprised.

[welbane]

Not a new ingredient for this model, but hours 372-384 challenge the coldest day ever here. No matter what, the bottom always falls out of the GFS days 14-16.

 

It doesn't matter even if we see -30 F. Once the precip comes, we will certainly be above freezing. 

[CAPE]

Hope no one is even remotely taking the GFS, in low resolution after truncation, verbatim. General idea of cold and an east coast storm is there. That is all we should glean from the 0z run.

[Ltrain]

Hope no one is even remotely taking the GFS, in low resolution after truncation, verbatim. General idea of cold and an east coast storm is there. That is all we should glean from the 0z run.

Only the pessimistic people take it seriously if its rain.

[aldie 22]

You guys are miserable...

[DCAlexandria]

Agreed Leesburg, lots of beat down defeated weenies.  meanwhile this mornings GFS shows a monster coastal at day 14 :-)

[Bob Chill]

Last 2 GEFS runs not as bullish with the -nao and have a more progressive look with the cold. Individual members remain all over with the early jan period. Every possible solution including warm rain and cold dry. 

 

Euro ensembles remained pretty consistent with more of a blocky look. 

 

Euro op has a sneaky vort pulling up out of the tn valley after the front passes early next week.  

 

Some MJO dynamical models (NCPE/ECMM/UKME)are showing a potential 8-1-2 progression in early Jan. That in itself is very encouraging. If consensus gains over the next week then it would be another sign that Jan holds promise for more than a hit and run pattern. 

[usedtobe]

Today I don't have the stormvista euro ens analogs but today's CPC superens mean still is advertising the potential for a really cold shot towards the latter half of the 1st week of January.  the composite of the 10 dates gives us one day with an 8C negative departure...for those math challenged that's a 14.4F departure.  A couple of the analogs were quite a bit colder than that. 

 

Four of the 10 dates yielded snowstorms within 3 days of the centered mean.  Three 2 inch events and one 7.  I still like the 30-40 percent chance of DCA getting their first inch between jan 2-jan 8. 

[snow.]

Last 2 GEFS runs not as bullish with the -nao and have a more progressive look with the cold. Individual members remain all over with the early jan period. Every possible solution including warm rain and cold dry. 

 

Euro ensembles remained pretty consistent with more of a blocky look. 

 

Euro op has a sneaky vort pulling up out of the tn valley after the front passes early next week.  

 

Some MJO dynamical models (NCPE/ECMM/UKME)are showing a potential 8-1-2 progression in early Jan. That in itself is very encouraging. If consensus gains over the next week then it would be another sign that Jan holds promise for more than a hit and run pattern. 

 

yeah...I think at day 10 it is good to just stick with ensemble means for the overall pattern..esp with the GFS which when you get outside of 192 hours tends to fluctuate way too much with major features...GEFS and EPS are very close with the pattern at day 10....Strong vortex east of Hudson Bay, +PNA, heights too low in the target NAO region...

[snow.]

Today I don't have the stormvista euro ens analogs but today's CPC superens mean still is advertising the potential for a really cold shot towards the latter half of the 1st week of January.  the composite of the 10 dates gives us one day with an 8C negative departure...for those math challenged that's a 14.4F departure.  A couple of the analogs were quite a bit colder than that. 

 

Four of the 10 dates yielded snowstorms within 3 days of the centered mean.  Three 2 inch events and one 7.  I still like the 30-40 percent chance of DCA getting their first inch between jan 2-jan 8. 

 

last night's euro ens gives us around a -5 departure for the 6-10 day period and a -3 to -4 departure for the 11-15 day period...I can look at the storms at work if I ever get there...

[usedtobe]

last night's euro ens gives us around a -5 departure for the 6-10 day period and a -3 to -4 departure for the 11-15 day period...I can look at the storms at work if I ever get there...

I'd be happy with a minus 5 departure.  I still don't see this as a pure snow type pattern unless we get extremely lucky but do think it a mixy type where we can get a couple of front side inches.