January Forecast Discussion

[IsentropicLift]

Enough is enough, mods need to step in if this continues. The gfs looks a lot more promising and it could turn out to be a miller A, which is far more favorable than a miller B in my opinion. 

Miller A's are usually the ones that bring blockbuster events. Miller B's usually develop later and favor New England more.

[SnoSki14]

Miller A's are usually the ones that bring blockbuster events. Miller B's usually develop later and favor New England more.

 

Yes because you are taking a risk if the primary ends up further north or is stronger with a Miller B. You risk an OTS track with a Miller A but I'll take my chances with a possible miss than a warm rainstorm.

[NorthShoreWx]

Exactly! People are attacking yank for no reason. Not fair

 

I disagree.

[jm1220]

Miller A's are usually the ones that bring blockbuster events. Miller B's usually develop later and favor New England more.

Many Miller B's have produced large amounts of snow here. The Lindsay Storm 1969, 1978 blizzard, 1/22/05, and 12/30/00 are just a few examples. New England is the best place for them, but you really aren't shut out from them unless you are in the DC area and south.

[Isotherm]

New PNA Forecast is for a more negative PNA - one word of caution it seems everyday this changes

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

Can't just look at the index values, the 500mb pattern is most important. The model consensus right now is for a PNA ridge in the Western US albeit not too impressive for the 1/1-1/3 time frame.

[PB GFI]

There's been SE ridging all year , I will count on that to offer enough resistance so this has a decent shot

[Animal]

Miller A's are usually the ones that bring blockbuster events. Miller B's usually develop later and favor New England more.

 

 

Some of the biggest snow storms that I have seen/experienced were Miller B's.

True Miller "A" storms are rare birds.

 

 

Best.

[WeatherFox]

Courtesy of NWS State College:

Nor'easters can be classified into one of two categories, named after the researcher (J.E. Miller) who first came up with this classification system for East Coast snow storms in 1946:

1) Nor'easters that develop primarily on the Gulf Coast or East Coast along an old cold front, or along the marine/land airmass contrast found on the East Coast, could be considered "classic" Nor'easters. Storms that develop in this manner are referred to as "Miller Type-A" storms. The "Superstorm of March 1993" is considered to have been a "Miller Type-A" storm.

2) Storms that come in from the west (up the Ohio Valley) are usually referred to as "Miller Type-B" storms. These storms produce precipitation in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and have a defined surface low that is moving toward the Appalachian Mountains from the west. As these storms approach the mountains, they lose their coherent/compact surface low center and the low re-develops along the East Coast. When this re-development (a.k.a. "center-jump") happens, the storm can still produce snow over all of the state. But, it will usually produce the most/heaviest/longest snow in NE PA (Potter Co. and east).

Storms that approach from the west ("Miller Type-B") typically move through Pennsylvania faster than Nor'easters, and produce a widespread and more-evenly distributed snowfall (everyone gets a similar amount) versus the "Miller Type-A" storms, and Lake Effect events.

Most Nor'easters tend to produce mixed precipitation in some part of PA, mainly in the Southeast, but the "Miller Type-B" storms have a better chance to do so due to the typical thermal pattern present (warm air closer to the State).

[Stormlover74]

Many Miller B's have produced large amounts of snow here. The Lindsay Storm 1969, 1978 blizzard, 1/22/05, and 12/30/00 are just a few examples. New England is the best place for them, but you really aren't shut out from them unless you are in the DC area and south.

I never really considered 1/05 a true Miller B for our area because most of our snowfall came from the initial thump long before the new low bombed off the coast. We did get snow overnight and into the following morning but just a few inches on top. 12/95 was a pretty decent one. Snow in the morning from the primary low, a break during the day and then heavy snow at night from the coastal low.

 

12/30/00 was probably a very unusual example as the storm didn't affect anyone outside of the northeast and basically didn't form until off the Virginia capes. There really was no primary low or transfer as I recall, just one low the bombed and drifted slowly northeast.

[Absolute Humidity]

I never really considered 1/05 a true Miller B for our area because most of our snowfall came from the initial thump long before the new low bombed off the coast. We did get snow overnight and into the following morning but just a few inches on top. 12/95 was a pretty decent one. Snow in the morning from the primary low, a break during the day and then heavy snow at night from the coastal low.

 

12/30/00 was probably a very unusual example as the storm didn't affect anyone outside of the northeast and basically didn't form until off the Virginia capes. There really was no primary low or transfer as I recall, just one low the bombed and drifted slowly northeast.

1/22 - 23/05 was actually a potent and moisture leaden clipper that rapidly redeveloped off NJ coast as a Miller B. Much of the snow that fell after midnight was actually from the ULL that added and additional 6 to 8", a bit more than a few inches. 

[Stormlover74]

1/22 - 23/05 was actually a potent and moisture leaden clipper that rapidly redeveloped off NJ coast as a Miller B. Much of the snow that fell after midnight was actually from the ULL that added and additional 6 to 8", a bit more than a few inches. 

EWR got 9" from the clipper and another 4.5" after midnight. To me a true miller B would have been a reverse of that. If I recall forecasts were a bit higher than that, like in the 16-22 range so in a way it underperformed west and south of NYC since round 2 was less than predicted. Again LI and New England saw the brunt but it was a great storm for us because of the wall of snow that came in that morning/afternoon.

[jm1220]

1/22 - 23/05 was actually a potent and moisture leaden clipper that rapidly redeveloped off NJ coast as a Miller B. Much of the snow that fell after midnight was actually from the ULL that added and additional 6 to 8", a bit more than a few inches. 

That was an unbelievably frustrating storm for most of PA, because the clipper moved further north than anticipated, and the dry slot from it raced across the state, whereas it was supposed to stay south near DC. I had 5" in State College but was expecting 12" or more-the snow went from 1/4 mile visibility to flurries in a few minutes. The coastal redevelopment stopped the eastward progress of the dryslot and it went to town from Philly northeast. If it wasn't for the redevelopment, no one southwest of Hartford would have seen more than a few inches.

[IsentropicLift]

Quite a few of the individual 12z GEFS members were more amped than the op. The mean is off the NC coast.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS Ensemble

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122712/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us.html

[Absolute Humidity]

EWR got 9" from the clipper and another 4.5" after midnight. To me a true miller B would have been a reverse of that. If I recall forecasts were a bit higher than that, like in the 16-22 range so in a way it underperformed west and south of NYC since round 2 was less than predicted. Again LI and New England saw the brunt but it was a great storm for us because of the wall of snow that came in that morning/afternoon.

For the NE sub forum, it was a true Miller B. This certainly was not a Miller A so I'm a bit confused as to what you mean by a true Miller B. As for the forecast, Mt Holly had much of NJ for 6 - 12". I got around 20".

[alwaysready126]

12Z GFS Ensemble

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122712/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us.html

its warm though, isnt it?  if im right, this storm is going to be a complete washout since the GFS is known for its cold bias.  im going to take a break from the boards and come back in 2 weeks. 

[Allsnow]

euro keeps the northern and southern disturbances separate….we end up very cold and dry

[+SNfreak21]

At least there is a clipper at 120 hrs on 12z euro, tight thermal gradient too

[IsentropicLift]

euro keeps the northern and southern disturbances separate….we end up very cold and dry

I think the Euro's bias of holding back southern stream energy in the southwest is at play here, but I could be wrong.

[bluewave]

euro keeps the northern and southern disturbances separate….we end up very cold and dry

 

Yeah, the GFS still looks over-amplified in this fast flow clipper pattern. The risk was always SNOW or NO if the northern low

shot by too fast. Maybe later runs will at least give some spots a little more snow. There appears

to be some very light snow on the Euro around 132-138 especially eastern sections.

[jm1220]

I think the Euro's bias of holding back southern stream energy in the southwest is at play here, but I could be wrong.

Enough blocking could force the northern stream to dive in but the block doesn't seem that strong-certainly not as strong as the late Dec 2010 block. The two streams refusing to interact is certainly a possibility.

[Stormlover74]

For the NE sub forum, it was a true Miller B. This certainly was not a Miller A so I'm a bit confused as to what you mean by a true Miller B. As for the forecast, Mt Holly had much of NJ for 6 - 12". I got around 20".

it was definitely a miller B...what I was trying to get across is that for our area the initial Thump was more impressive than what we got from the secondary low

[Allsnow]

Yeah, the GFS still looks over-amplified in this fast flow clipper pattern. The risk was always SNOW or NO if the northern low

shot by too fast. Maybe later runs will at least give some spots a little more snow. There appears

to be some very light snow on the Euro around 132-138 especially eastern sections.

 

 

Do you think the euro bias is playing into the sw disturbance being delayed? 

[+SNfreak21]

Looking ahead, Even if the Euro suppresses the storm, it develops the -NAO at 240 hrs like the GFS

[Neblizzard]

Looking ahead, Even if the Euro suppresses the storm, it develops the -NAO at 240 hrs like the GFS

Very nice look to the 500mb Pattern, however I would like to see Lower heights near NF. With that said that's a -EPO, -AO, -NAO pattern right there.

[bluewave]

Do you think the euro bias is playing into the sw disturbance being delayed? 

 

I think that this may just be a result of the flow being so fast along along the edge of the Arctic front.

But if the clipper tracks further enough north, we could see a little more snow in later runs.

 

The bigger story may turn out to be how the Euro is turning our winds more northerly behind the

Arctic front with a stronger and further north high pressure cell. If -20c 850's verify with a 

N or NNW flow down the Hudson Valley, NYC could see its first reading below 10 degrees in a few

years. It will be interesting to see if the Euro holds serve with the cold forecast. 

 

 

[Neblizzard]

I think that this may just be a result of the flow being so fast along along the edge of the Arctic front.

The bigger story may turn out to be how the Euro is turning our winds more northerly behind the

Arctic front with a stronger and further north high pressure cell. If -20c 850's verify with a North

or NNW flow down the Hudson Valley, NYC could see its first reading below 10 degrees in a few

years. It will be interesting to see if the Euro holds serve with the cold forecast.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144.gif

Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif

Hey Bluewave,

We all know how much the operational models flip in the long range, but look at all that blocking showing up on the Euro day 10. The only thing I don't like on those charts is the massive ridging near NF. PV looks displaced as -NAO blocking develops.

[IsentropicLift]

I think that this may just be a result of the flow being so fast along along the edge of the Arctic front.

But if the clipper tracks further enough north, we could see a little more snow in later runs.

 

The bigger story may turn out to be how the Euro is turning our winds more northerly behind the

Arctic front with a stronger and further north high pressure cell. If -20c 850's verify with a 

N or NNW flow down the Hudson Valley, NYC could see its first reading below 10 degrees in a few

years. It will be interesting to see if the Euro holds serve with the cold forecast. 

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144.gif

 

Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif

Just about all of the long range extreme cold that the Euro has shown has been muted as time goes on.

[bluewave]

Just about all of the long range extreme cold that the Euro has shown has been muted as time goes on.

 

The operational had exaggerated runs 8-10days  where the whole PV and -24 or lower 850'sdropped down right over us.

But what the recent runs of the Euro are showing is a stronger high pressure with more northerly winds being possible

behind the Arctic front. Obviously we'll have to see if the Euro verifies with -18 to -20c temps on a N or NNW flow.

I am not saying that the low level airmass will be nearly as cold as 2004, but NYC got down to 1 above on northerly

winds and -18C 850's. Maybe a warmer version this time would be closer to the 5-10 range since the low level

cold isn't as impressive in current forecasts as 2004. But if the Euro backs off a little, we should be at least 

able to drop to 10-15 in NYC after the clipper.

 

1/10/04 very cold low levels on northerly flow and 1 degree in NYC.

 

[SnowGoose69]

I think that this may just be a result of the flow being so fast along along the edge of the Arctic front.

But if the clipper tracks further enough north, we could see a little more snow in later runs.

 

The bigger story may turn out to be how the Euro is turning our winds more northerly behind the

Arctic front with a stronger and further north high pressure cell. If -20c 850's verify with a 

N or NNW flow down the Hudson Valley, NYC could see its first reading below 10 degrees in a few

years. It will be interesting to see if the Euro holds serve with the cold forecast. 

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144.gif

 

Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif

 

The European text output which always verifies too warm shows -12.8C at the surface for 12Z on 1/2 which would be a low of 8, if we had that exact setup you'd probably see a low of 3-4 given the 850s of -21c