January Forecast Discussion

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Let me correct that statement, i was more commenting on what sounds like a condescending tone you giving through your responses. Lets just try and keep discussion constructive with no posts that seem to be non-respectful. Your response to bluewave sounded arrogant.

He was also wrong. The GFS at the surface was not all rain.

[IsentropicLift]

He was also wrong. The GFS at the surface was not all rain.

The maps I have show all rain from I-95 south and east and a very brief window for freezing precip more than 40 miles NW of NYC. It's going to change 1000 miles between now and then anyway.

[REDMK6GLI]

He was also wrong. The GFS at the surface was not all rain.

I know it didnt show all rain i just didnt want to hash anything else out and drag out the bantering. This storm looks to be able to atleat lay down a blanket of snow for our region as of now so we have to be thankful for that

[IsentropicLift]

I know it didnt show all rain i just didnt want to hash anything else out and drag out the bantering. This storm looks to be able to atleat lay down a blanket of snow for our region as of now so we have to be thankful for that

While initially the 850 line is south, the surface freezing line stays north of the city for the entire event.

[IsentropicLift]

A Euro-UKMET pair usually beats a GFS-CMC at days 6-7. So I would bet that the GFS and CMC

are too amped and warm. The Euro has a colder clipper track to our south which would be a snow

or no pattern if the storm blows up too far east for us. Check out the scores that have the 

Euro and UKMET in 1st and 2nd place.

 

cor_day6_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

With all due respect the Euro has been no better than any other model this year beyond day 5. The GFS schooled the Euro with the Sunday system as well.

[SnowGoose69]

With all due respect the Euro has been no better than any other model this year beyond day 5. The GFS schooled the Euro with the Sunday system as well.

 

I don't necessarily buy the Euro's solution either but with a -NAO , albeit a temporary one and a decent 50-50 low, if that 1/3-14 storm happens its never going inland, its either going to be a miss or its going to be mainly snow, perhaps if its a classic Miller B we could see a period briefly at the start such as some RA/PL or SNPL but as of now I think the 1/3 storm is a miss or mainly snow. To me that potential event is the best setup we have seen as far as the NATL goes for an East Coast storm since 2011....even the 2-3 snow events late last winter had a +NAO or neutral.

[earthlight]

With all due respect the Euro has been no better than any other model this year beyond day 5. The GFS schooled the Euro with the Sunday system as well.

Lol.

[IsentropicLift]

Are you kidding me? The Euro has been crushing all the other guidance at those ranges.

Why do you think that people shell out the extra$ to get specialized Euro data?

 

cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Let's not go there, not the time or place. I pay for Euro data, it's had some major failures recently.

 

The GFS is well supported by its ensembles, the Euro ensembles were all over the place.

[IsentropicLift]

Lol.

Nobody is arguing that the GFS is overall better than the Euro, but the Euro has been just as bad so far this winter as the GFS.

[IsentropicLift]

I don't necessarily buy the Euro's solution either but with a -NAO , albeit a temporary one and a decent 50-50 low, if that 1/3-14 storm happens its never going inland, its either going to be a miss or its going to be mainly snow, perhaps if its a classic Miller B we could see a period briefly at the start such as some RA/PL or SNPL but as of now I think the 1/3 storm is a miss or mainly snow. To me that potential event is the best setup we have seen as far as the NATL goes for an East Coast storm since 2011....even the 2-3 snow events late last winter had a +NAO or neutral.

I'm certainly not calling for a GGEM type solution, but I just don't see enough cold air around to support snow for the I-95 corridor. The system is going to need to dig a lot further south and turn the corner in order to take advantage of what does exist.

[REDMK6GLI]

Are you kidding me? The Euro has been crushing all the other guidance at those ranges.

Why do you think that people shell out the extra$ to get specialized Euro data?

cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Cant argue with proven results thats for sure. We know all models have well documented biases and incorrect data in there programming but once your sort out there shortcomings you can see the EURO is still more consistent over other forecast models

[Allsnow]

Bluewave says Game Set Match

[REDMK6GLI]

Bluewave says Game Set Match

There are few members that i trust with forecasts etc. he is one of them

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS is significantly flatter already at 132 as compared to 06z.

[Allsnow]

Thats a really nice set-up at 144 on the gfs

[IsentropicLift]

Miller A this run, big phase over the south, 1012mb low over the gulf at hr 150.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nice run developing shame this isnt 36 hours out

[IsentropicLift]

Weak low pressure system producing some light snow or mixed precip over the area at 156. Low still way down south.

 

It's probably not going to turn the corner fast enough to come up the coast, but major changes this run for sure.

[REDMK6GLI]

In a progressive pattern im calling that suspect. Unless the timing of the southern branch is perfect with a digging northern strema vort, with little transient blocking its got to be very well timed for this solution

[Ralph Wiggum]

North atlantic blocking was showing up on some guidance fwiw. Cmc was one.

[IsentropicLift]

Initially a northern stream low forms and heads for the lakes and then off the coast, that needs to go away and we'll be in business. It makes no sense given the strong phasing taking place. It kept the northern stream flow just flat enough to not allow the trough to fully amplify. This should trend better.

[Ralph Wiggum]

In a progressive pattern im calling that suspect. Unless the timing of the southern branch is perfect with a digging northern strema vort, with little transient blocking its got to be very well timed for this solution

There is a greenland block this run

[Ralph Wiggum]

Initially a northern stream low forms and heads for the lakes and then off the coast, that needs to go away and we'll be in business. It makes no sense given the strong phasing taking place. It kept the northern stream flow just flat enough to not allow the trough to fully amplify. This should trend better.

Baby steps. ..don't expect the gfs to nail this down at this range. Baby steps....

[+SNfreak21]

There is a greenland block this run

[REDMK6GLI]

There is a greenland block this run

Want to see it show up consistently before we start saying a big coastal miller A snowstorm. If it can hold this miller A solution over the weekend into monday ill bite. This pattern is still VERY volatile and amped up model runs like this should be taken very carefully

[+SNfreak21]

Miller A's are very volatile, remember the Boxing Day blizzard and 1/25/00

[Isotherm]

One can see the phasing that "could" occur along the East Coast on today's 12z GFS, but I would expect / hope for it NOT to show a snowstorm at this point. We're so far in advance that I be worried about changes if current proggs were in consensus on a significant event. I don't expect models to consistently show something until Sunday probably, the Day 5 time frame. We know the synoptic pattern is one that favors amplification but the details will remain fuzzy for the next few days.

 

The possibilities with this event include a miss to our south if the PNA amplification is insufficient or a wintry event for the area. An inland tracking low is unlikely for January 3rd given the southward position of the PV and 50/50 vortex nearby keeping confluence locked in place.

 

The primary question is can we get strong enough amplification in the East to phase the pieces of energy near the coast. It's possible this phasing occurs too late for most of us, but there's plenty of time for change.

 

Nonetheless, this Jan 3rd threat continues to be our best shot of the year thus far. The one constant in the pattern going forward as expected is the maintenance of the -EPO ridge overall.

[NEG NAO]

One can see the phasing that "could" occur along the East Coast on today's 12z GFS, but I would expect / hope for it NOT to show a snowstorm at this point. We're so far in advance that I be worried about changes if current proggs were in consensus on a significant event. I don't expect models to consistently show something until Sunday probably, the Day 5 time frame. We know the synoptic pattern is one that favors amplification but the details will remain fuzzy for the next few days.

 

The possibilities with this event include a miss to our south if the PNA amplification is insufficient or a wintry event for the area. An inland tracking low is unlikely for January 3rd given the southward position of the PV and 50/50 vortex nearby keeping confluence locked in place.

 

The primary question is can we get strong enough amplification in the East to phase the pieces of energy near the coast. It's possible this phasing occurs too late for most of us, but there's plenty of time for change.

 

Nonetheless, this Jan 3rd threat continues to be our best shot of the year thus far. The one constant in the pattern going forward as expected is the maintenance of the -EPO ridge overall.

New PNA Forecast is for a more negative PNA - one word of caution it seems everyday this changes

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[SnoSki14]

Enough is enough, mods need to step in if this continues. The gfs looks a lot more promising and it could turn out to be a miller A, which is far more favorable than a miller B in my opinion. 

[NycStormChaser]

what's wrong with that? pro mets in other places are discussing the exact same potential.

Exactly! People are attacking yank for no reason. Not fair