January Forecast Discussion

[WE GOT HIM]

Wow EURO has 850s near -27c on the 3rd

[atownwxwatcher]

ECM is cold and dry during the GFS stormy period!

[PB GFI]

For those who missed the out on a white Xmas , the Euro at 132 takes a weak clipper through the region and drops about .10

Into mid 20 surface temps , so many areas may see a white New Years .

After that the Euro and GFS go in different directions as to the evolution of the next system.

The GFS rushes a system out as the Euro is 3 days behind after a cold week .

Without blocking , the conclusion maybe the same. There is 7 to 9 days to sort it . The timing issues aren't the concern because the models are at least seeing a system here next weekend .

The concern is that we may be in a spot regardless .

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

For those who missed the out on a white Xmas , the Euro at 132 takes a weak clipper through the region and drops about .10

Into mid 20 surface temps , so many areas may see a white New Years .

After that the Euro and GFS go in different directions as to the evolution of the next system.

The GFS rushes a system out as the Euro is 3 days behind after a cold week .

Without blocking , the conclusion maybe the same. There is 7 to 9 days to sort it . The timing issues aren't the concern because the models are at least seeing a system here next weekend .

The concern is that we may be in a spot regardless .

there is blocking on the gfs which in part makes its warm solution improbable. Synoptically the gfs would be a snowstorm. It's similar to the dec 14th event except its a much better setup at h5. The Ens remain colder than the Op. P0006 please!!!!

[CIK62]

As late as X-Mas eve the GFS showed no precip. for Sunday, 12/29(a miss to the se.) and some snow on the Jan. 3rd. came w/o a storm and very low temps.  Since then, the GFS has shown .75"-1.25" of Rain(on Sun.) and now we have a storm near the 3rd.,  which could be a mix.   Can anyone comment on what changed?   The OP simply has a warmer look for the entire run, while ENS. has also warmed but remains colder than the OP.

[CIK62]

Wow EURO has 850s near -27c on the 3rd

Are you certain?  -27C @850mb. is the record for NYC since 1949.   The lowest 2m.T during that period in CPK is -2F(multiple times).  I have seen unofficial lows of -5F in the City, say Jan. 21,1985 too.

[REDMK6GLI]

Are you certain? -27C @850mb. is the record for NYC since 1949. The lowest 2m.T during that period in CPK is -2F(multiple times). I have seen unofficial lows of -5F in the City, say Jan. 21,1985 too.

Careful taking the euro for gospel this year especially outside of 5 days. It has been very inaccurate and i can only assume its doing the same. The only way it gets that cold is if the PV pretty much drops into the NE. Most likely we'll see highs in the low 20's near the coast and teens inland. I dont expect this cold to be record shattering at all

[Mikehobbyst]

I think the 1993-1994 analog is still a good one. I also heard an Ace of Base song from that 1994 winter during lunch yesterday at Applebees.  It is like getting slapped in the face from that year on all ends, the weather and its music.  The 6Z GFS has my interest for the 1/2-1/4 time period. Really has my interest for the NYC/LI area (snow to mix to rain) and especially the interior again for potential warning event very close.  The tune sort of seals the deal, as it reminded me of all of the snow and ice on the ground that stand out winter 20 years ago.  We just need higher heights north of AK to really seal the deal with the -EPO and -AO pattern.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Careful taking the euro for gospel this year especially outside of 5 days. It has been very inaccurate and i can only assume its doing the same. The only way it gets that cold is if the PV pretty much drops into the NE. Most likely we'll see highs in the low 20's near the coast and teens inland. I dont expect this cold to be record shattering at all

We better hope the Euro isn't right on temps...that is what is squashing the 1/3 storm into oblivion.

 

Any word on the Euro Ens? Both with respect to the 1/3 system and the LR guidance.

[SnowGoose69]

Meteorology 101...06z GFS...impossible for the inland track to occur with the below 500mb setup of a 50/50 low and -NAO....

 

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Meteorology 101...06z GFS...impossible for the inland track to occur with the below 500mb setup of a 50/50 low and -NAO....

 

 

 

Yep, pointed out above as well. The 0z was the same basically. As depicted at H5, the GFS right now should be showing a big snow storm at the surface. Essentially, P006 of the 6z Ens.

[SnowGoose69]

Yep, pointed out above as well. The 0z was the same basically. As depicted at H5, the GFS right now should be showing a big snow storm at the surface. Essentially, P006 of the 6z Ens.

 

Its possible it could occur if the system was late to develop because that -NAO is largely transient from the previous storm, so if the system drags its heels out of Canada into the TN Valley we could unfortunately see a snow to rain scenario.

[REDMK6GLI]

It looks like the reason the CMC and GFS cut the storm is that they handle the MJO differently

than the Euro. Notice how the GFS and CMC push the MJO out into 5 which would pump

the SE Ridge and cause a warmer storm scenario. Right now, I would go with the Euro idea

of the MJO progressing through that octant at a weaker amplitude and not building the

SE Ridge and colder track for us. The Euro usually beats the GFS at MJO forecasts.

Euro

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

GFS

GFSO_phase_full.gif

CMC

CANM_phase_20m_small.gif

Great find. However although this is still far off one should still not expect big snows from this. A blend of the euro/gfs would give us a moderate snow which would fit the upcoming pattern well. A transient 50/50 low and blocking regime would have to be timed perfectly with the Lp in tandem to deliver a bigger snowstorm

[REDMK6GLI]

This looks like a quick 1-3 and maybe 2-4 east sections since the flow will be so fast. But it could only be a coating to 2

if it is a little too far south.

ecmwfUS_200_spd_144.gif

People shouldnt expect anymore from this until the flow actually starts showing signs of slowing down so storms arent in such a hurry to get outta here and also get a west based -NAO established to have a better storm track for us in the NE. Until then 1-2,3-6 storms are going to be commonplace this winter

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

People shouldnt expect anymore from this until the flow actually starts showing signs of slowing down so storms arent in such a hurry to get outta here and also get a west based -NAO established to have a better storm track for us in the NE. Until then 1-2,3-6 storms are going to be commonplace this winter

The wild model spread argues that the models are struggling with a real pattern change. Me thinks blocking is going to setup, even if it transient. The timing may just work out. Best thing to do now, is to go with the seasonal trend with a result similar to the Dec 14th system. If the blocking comes to fruition, it is game on.

[IsentropicLift]

This looks like a quick 1-3 and maybe 2-4 east sections since the flow will be so fast. But it could only be a coating to 2

if it is a little too far south.

 

ecmwfUS_200_spd_144.gif

Since when is that threat a snowstorm? It shows all rain on the 06z GFS, especially for the coast.

 

And don't tell me your argument is that it's going to trend towards one solution vs another.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Since when is that threat a snowstorm? It shows all rain on the 06z GFS, especially for the coast.

 

And don't tell me your argument is that it's going to trend towards one solution vs another.

The 0z and 6z GFS at H5 are unequivocally not rain storms. Read above.

[mob1]

Since when is that threat a snowstorm? It shows all rain on the 06z GFS, especially for the coast.

And don't tell me your argument is that it's going to trend towards one solution vs another.

The Euro shows a completely different solution which is what was referring to. Besides, the GFS doesn't show all rain.

[NEG NAO]

New PNA forecast is now negative going forward - so it looks like a- Neg EPO -Neg PNA Neg AO - Pos -Neutral NAO in early January - probably more of the same type of systems we saw earlier this month snow to a mix to rain...........

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[PB GFI]

The wild model spread argues that the models are struggling with a real pattern change. Me thinks blocking is going to setup, even if it transient. The timing may just work out. Best thing to do now, is to go with the seasonal trend with a result similar to the Dec 14th system. If the blocking comes to fruition, it is game on.

The only way I can see this get to a moderate snow event is it evolves into a well timed event

theres cold air being slung around the base of the PV during the forecast period so its not implausible but the set ups currently modeled make me hesitant to thnk white yet

It's nice to see the NY clipper back.

[REDMK6GLI]

Since when is that threat a snowstorm? It shows all rain on the 06z GFS, especially for the coast.

And don't tell me your argument is that it's going to trend towards one solution vs another.

I dont usually participate in thread banter but you gotta take it easy. Bluewave is one of the most intelligent people in the NYC subforum and knows his stuff pretty damn well. If he says its going to trend towards one or the other he can back it up with actual meteorlogicsl reasoning not modelology or gut-feelings unless it is onto something. Listen to his reasoning and you'll learn stuff like me instead of jumping the gun buddy

[Allsnow]

I dont usually participate in thread banter but you gotta take it easy. Bluewave is one of the most intelligent people in the NYC subforum and knows his stuff pretty damn well. If he says its going to trend towards one or the other he can back it up with actual meteorlogicsl reasoning not modelology or gut-feelings unless it is onto something. Listen to his reasoning and you'll learn stuff like me instead of jumping the gun buddy

This! Nothing against anyone but bluewave looks at everything with a unbiased eye. He is a great poster!

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro shows a completely different solution which is what was referring to. Besides, the GFS doesn't show all rain.

The Euro has an inland runner on the 6th, what am I missing here?

[REDMK6GLI]

This! Nothing against anyone but bluewave looks at everything with a unbiased eye. He is a great poster!

Allsnow have a feeling Earthlight will start handing out 5PPD's and bans so this shouldnt be going on too much longer, earthlight is another one as well who is unbiased and is very intelligent both inside and outside the winter season. This a group forum where information can collectively be displayed to be constructive, im down for some fun but insults have no place in a forum that is made to a learning experience in forecasting and the understanding of meteorology.

[IsentropicLift]

Allsnow have a feeling Earthlight will start handing out 5PPD's and bans so this shouldnt be going on too much longer, earthlight is another one as well who is unbiased and is very intelligent both inside and outside the winter season. This a group forum where information can collectively be displayed to be constructive, im down for some fun but insults have no place in a forum that is made to a learning experience in forecasting and the understanding of meteorology.

Where was the insult? I made a generalized statement, if you see things differently you're entitled.

 

FWIW both the 00z Euro and 06z GEFS ensemble means were largely OTS with the 3rd event.

[PB GFI]

We better hope the Euro isn't right on temps...that is what is squashing the 1/3 storm into oblivion.

Any word on the Euro Ens? Both with respect to the 1/3 system and the LR guidance.

It's control run is a mod snowstorm at 192. Takes a deepening center and runs it east of the BM

Again it's precip shield would be bigger if that happens

So I don't just look at the precip field As it is its a 6 inch system.

But it's not rain on the control.

[EasternLI]

That ridging around Greenland looks promising. GFS most bullish with it at the moment, but there's hints on other guidance. Transient of course, but nice to see.

[PB GFI]

The NY clipper on the control should get more focus. The control run deepens a clipper on the coast thru

Mid 20 air

850 s are minus 20

[REDMK6GLI]

Where was the insult? I made a generalized statement, if you see things differently you're entitled.

FWIW both the 00z Euro and 06z GEFS ensemble means were largely OTS with the 3rd event.

Let me correct that statement, i was more commenting on what sounds like a condescending tone you giving through your responses. Lets just try and keep discussion constructive with no posts that seem to be non-respectful. Your response to bluewave sounded arrogant.

[NEG NAO]

Looking at the 6Z GFS and then looking at the indicies going forward into early January especially with a lack of blocking - this wild swing type of pattern on the GFS is a real possibility IMHO

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr