Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Very close, if we could get the northern branch to head a bit farther south that southern vort could get captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The GFS def trended towards the EURO for the New Years possibility on trailer wave, only reason I think it is something to watch (especially for those in Southeast) is because of the Jet configuration, this screams cyclogenesis closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 A return of the New Year's storm perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Some LI peeps haven't gotten in on too much of those either. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years) Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches Having shoveled just under 45 feet of snow the last 13 years...I'd say we've gotten in on a few... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 18z GFS showing a clipper overnight Wednesday into Thursday next week, the 850s look very reminiscent of the 12/17 event when LI struggled with p-types, but its too far out to determine, looks like a 1-3" event Monmouth county north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just as I predicted, several of the 18z ensemble members show big hits for the 3rd/4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just as I predicted, several of the 18z ensemble members show big hits for the 3rd/4th Dude scroll back a few days. Many pp on the 4 th threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Dude scroll back a few days. Many pp on the 4 th threat You have been all over this and I appreciate the info you've been sharing. Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Alot of posters have been honing in on the new years timeframe for a while now. Its funny how many of the recent storms only show up or disappear in the models in the 4-5 dayframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You have been all over this and I appreciate the info you've been sharing. Keep it up!UTThank u bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 UT Thank u bro the 3/4 threat looks good right now but with no blocking my biggest fear is a wound-up low I know its far out as well it will cut as they're is nothing to stop it from doing that. the cold is there but the upper level setup is still fragile and small changes can cause big complications in the pattern were heading into or transitioning into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 the 3/4 threat looks good right now but with no blocking my biggest fear is a wound-up low I know its far out as well it will cut as they're is nothing to stop it from doing that. the cold is there but the upper level setup is still fragile and small changes can cause big complications in the pattern were heading into or transitioning intoThere is support for a -AO around 1/3 and also an indication that the MJO may move to phase 8 or 1. This would support a more amplified and colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 There is support for a -AO around 1/3 and also an indication that the MJO may move to phase 8 or 1. This would support a more amplified and colder solution. those factors would allow for a colder yet more amped solution but I stand by my previous statement of this pattern still being fragile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 the 3/4 threat looks good right now but with no blocking my biggest fear is a wound-up low I know its far out as well it will cut as they're is nothing to stop it from doing that. the cold is there but the upper level setup is still fragile and small changes can cause big complications in the pattern were heading into or transitioning intoIt's just not a great snow pattern as the Atlantic pattern is bad. So even though the threats are few and far between I think u will see people jump all over the smallest of threats pp will latch onto them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's just not a great snow pattern as the Atlantic pattern is bad. So even though the threats are few and far between I think u will see people jump all over the smallest of threats pp will latch onto them Hit the nail on the head and until the atlantic starts to cooperate along with other factors its going to be small-moderate threats. Until then weenie goggles and wishcasting. Cold air is there, upper levels need to lend some support now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs looks better for the 2/3 threat. That's all you can really say right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs looks better for the 2/3 threat. That's all you can really say right no w 156 hours looks good. Stepped in a good direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 156 hours looks good. Stepped in a good direction It looks like what we've seen earlier this month. I was looking forward to how January might turn out, but these setups do not make me happy. The PV is not far enough south to offset the horrible Atlantic and we get these ugly cutter looking systems that try to become miller B's. I think it's a great pattern for New England but not feeling so good about this area. The storm on the 3rd as the gfs depicts would be another rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It looks like what we've seen earlier this month. I was looking forward to how January might turn out, but these setups do not make me happy. The PV is not far enough south to offset the horrible Atlantic and we get these ugly cutter looking systems that try to become miller B's. I think it's a great pattern for New England but not feeling so good about this area. The storm on the 3rd as the gfs depicts would be another rainstorm. It's 150 hours out and I'm glad its showing a storm at all. Plenty of time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It looks like what we've seen earlier this month. I was looking forward to how January might turn out, but these setups do not make me happy. The PV is not far enough south to offset the horrible Atlantic and we get these ugly cutter looking systems that try to become miller B's. I think it's a great pattern for New England but not feeling so good about this area. The storm on the 3rd as the gfs depicts would be another rainstorm. At 159 hrs on the GFS heights are building in Greenland, the PV shifts east so it acts like a 50/50 low, this is just one run of the GFS cant pull a weenie suicide yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 January snowfalls 6" or more...20.2" 1/07-08/199619.0" 1/25-26/201113.8" 1/22-23/200513.6" 1/19-20/197813.0" 1/01-02/187713.0" 1/15-16/187913.0" 1/23-24/193512.5" 1/12-13/196411.5" 1/02/192511.0" 1/24-25/190510.3" 1/24/200410.0" 1/27-28/189710.0" 1/23-24/190810.0" 1/14-15/19109.9" 1/19-20/19619.1" 1/11-12/20119.0" 1/01/18699.0" 1/26-27/18719.0" 1/03-04/19239.0" 1/19/19368.8" 1/13-14/19398.6" 1/10-12/19548.1" 1/22/19878.0" 1/03/18828.0" 1/25/18918.0" 1/02-03/19047.8" 1/14/19237.0" 1/20/19257.0" 1/03-04/19056.8" 1/29-30/19666.7" 1/15-16/19456.5" 1/14/18746.5" 1/26-27/18946.5" 1/28-29/19226.4" 1/01/19716.3" 1/10/19656.0" 1/19/18696.0" 1/22/18736.0" 1/15/18926.0" 1/05-06/18936.0" 1/17/19/19076.0" 1/21/2001 the last two January's had very little snow after 2011's record January snowfall...2011 had two storms 6" or more...1925, 1923 and 1905 were the only other January's with two 6" or more snowfalls...it's possible to get a 6" snowfall in January with the pattern we have seen since late November...If you want a bigger storm the ao/nao will need to be in a better state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 At 159 hrs on the GFS heights are building in Greenland, the PV shifts east so it acts like a 50/50 low, this is just one run of the GFS cant pull a weenie suicide yet In reality we would probably see an icy setup as that strong cold high will be tough to dislodge, and it doesn't really retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm not so concerned w RS 7 Days out. I am just happy to See the system come NE off Hatteras if it doesn't work out there's nothing one can do about it. I'm content to let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z gfs ensembles basically all had a system in the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 In reality we would probably see an icy setup as that strong cold high will be tough to dislodge, and it doesn't really retreat. Sounds like 1994 already lol, but I am new here so idk if I can post GFS maps from another source but at 165 hours there are heights building in Greenland, a 50/50 low (transient most likely), and a ridge building out west. Sounds like a favorable setup to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Sounds like 1994 already lol, but I am new here so idk if I can post GFS maps from another source but at 165 hours there are heights building in Greenland, a 50/50 low (transient most likely), and a ridge building out west. Sounds like a favorable setup to me. -NAO tries to develop then we lose the PNA and the coldest air is headed for the Rockies, this GFS run. It will keep changing for a while. I suspect we may eventually get a negative NAO. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 This event looks similar to 1/7/1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The writing was on the wall at 18z that this would trend better and it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GGEM looks nothing like the GFS .. Has a low tracking across the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The GGEM shows what could happen, so frustrating without any blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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