96blizz Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No one forecasted a great SNOW pattern , we all said this was a great 2 - 3 week pattern . In total we should finish with a 10 day period which averages about 15 below normal ( quite cold ) and including today there has been between 10 to 15 inches of snow inside a week in most places Now if you were expecting more than that , shouldnt have . We live near a coastal plain at 40 N No cold pattern EVER is wire to wire and COLD doesnt equal Snow . So if FEB is wet not white , that happens in NYC That's a cop out. The mets and general consensus of folks have raved over this period and told us to "strap in" and be charged with excitement. If there is little snow and a lot of rain after this weekend, it's an epic let down compared to the meteorological hype that has been spewed the past three weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Brief warmup then reload time with 1994 like gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well the 18z gefs don't look very warm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's a cop out. The mets and general consensus of folks have raved over this period and told us to "strap in" and be charged with excitement. If there is little snow and a lot of rain after this weekend, it's an epic let down compared to the meteorological hype that has been spewed the past three weeks or so. IDK...the area just had a major snowstorm...a small snowstorm...and near record cold...it seems a good deal of the "hype" was justifiable...plus there are six days left in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IDK...the area just had a major snowstorm...a small snowstorm...and near record cold...it seems a good deal of the "hype" was justifiable...plus there are six days left in January.I hear you William and am not trying to be contentious. Just trying to say that it the first half of Feb is wet with rain or dry, it's clearly counter to what we have read the past few weeks. Does not discredit the prognostications for last storm (1/22) and the cold for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I hear you William and am not trying to be contentious. Just trying to say that it the first half of Feb is wet with rain or dry, it's clearly counter to what we have read the past few weeks. Does not discredit the prognostications for last storm (1/22) and the cold for sure... TWT...often progs for exceptional cold & snow come out 3 weeks in advance...then they back off...and then...as the time frame in question nears....they again become bullish on the idea of cold & snow...showing the original long range forecast to be correct...weather, as you know, is a long way from an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's a cop out. The mets and general consensus of folks have raved over this period and told us to "strap in" and be charged with excitement. If there is little snow and a lot of rain after this weekend, it's an epic let down compared to the meteorological hype that has been spewed the past three weeks or so. I don't know, 16.1" snow and counting with bitterly cold temps for a week has me pretty strapped in. I could care a less what the operational runs show. Currently global teliconnectors point to a brief warmup, like three days then we reload with -EPO and -AO, read up on what Don S and the others have been saying, especially what the OPI guys from Italy have been saying for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't know, 16.1" snow and counting with bitterly cold temps for a week has me pretty strapped in. I could care a less what the operational runs show. Currently global teliconnectors point to a brief warmup, like three days then we reload with -EPO and -AO, read up on what Don S and the others have been saying, especially what the OPI guys from Italy have been saying for Feb. Fair enough and maybe an admitted NW bitterness of late kicking in, but that 1/21 storm was a bonus given guidance up to a day or two before and there has been an inordinate amount of honking for late Jan up through mid Feb. just calling it how I see it, that if we see very little snow action the next three weeks, it's a major letdown compared to what I've read. Here's to hoping they were right all along!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 00z nam has a gulf coast snowstorm so historic it would put the December 04 event to shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fair enough and maybe an admitted NW bitterness of late kicking in, but that 1/21 storm was a bonus given guidance up to a day or two before and there has been an inordinate amount of honking for late Jan up through mid Feb. just calling it how I see it, that if we see very little snow action the next three weeks, it's a major letdown compared to what I've read. Here's to hoping they were right all along!! Gradient pattern will favor you guys for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS Ensemble very cold for Feb. 3-9, highs in the mid 20's---while CMC Ensembles have highs at 32 for this period. Will depend on how that string of lows is able to approach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 00z nam has a gulf coast snowstorm so historic it would put the December 04 event to shame The one at 84hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs looks better at h5 on this run for the midweek storm.baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS has the storm right where we want it at this range. Now we just wait for the northwest shift with each run. Also attached JMA qpf...lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I caution everyone to get too excited about this one. We still need a hundreds of miles shift west for this to be anything meaningful, even for eastern sections. Fun to follow, but expectations should be very low. Some positive trends for sure, at H5. Stronger vort now has separation from the previous vort and is digging more. PV is retreating more quickly. But the troublesome trend is this kicker that is dropping down as the storm is gathering down south. That kicker means business and is already modeled as very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm losing interest in the mid-week period. gefs show the atlantic ridging briefly linking up with the arctic ridging, and I think that might slow down the departure of the pv and the mid-week sw gets squashed. I hope I'm wrong of course. I think around friday is looking more interesting when the pv is able to retreat a bit more. We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs looks better at h5 on this run for the midweek storm.baby steps. take a road trip to the Carolina Coast - thats where all the fun will be mid-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z Srefs continue big west trend. .1 line traverses SNJ and touches eastern li. 9z 3z 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 People overlooked this but exactly a week ago the 9z SREFs were the first to shift west, could that kicker at 500mb be displaced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good for them on the SE coast if this verifies in this scope it`s really an anomaly for them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z Srefs continue big west trend. .1 line traverses SNJ and touches eastern li. 9z 3z 21z People overlooked this but exactly a week ago the 9z SREFs were the first to shift west, could that kicker at 500mb be displaced? lets hope they're onto something again. losing this system that has TONS of potential would be kick to the plums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Many things about the 12z NAM are already better. The key will be the kicker that drops down in later frames. If it's weaker or slower, we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Many things about the 12z NAM are already better. The key will be the kicker that drops down in later frames. If it's weaker or slower, we're in business. lets hope and pray that kicker loses its punch and is a slug. not out of business...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good for them on the SE coast if this verifies in this scope it`s really an anomaly for them .that would be something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Only diff I see so far is that there is a closed 500mb Low In Mexico. I have no idea of the implications with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Only diff I see so far is that there is a closed 500mb Low In Mexico. I have no idea of the implications with that It would be good to get STJ interaction into the system, though it's probably not good that it's so strong. Decreases the chances of a phase down the road. Other than that, some other noticeable changes. The lead vort is weaker, which argues for a flatter solution. But the kicker is a bit slower, which argues for a more amplified solution. Just shows how many variables there are to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I say this with the most possible respect intended , this isn't even close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 please explain how its better?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAM is close to 100 miles further west but still WAYYYYY off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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