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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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This is a great point. The trends were better this morning throughout most models so the GFS with the bias its recent solution most likely may not be plausible after all. And Paul i agree RGEM will be better under 96 hours out ;)

The RGEM only goes out to 48 hours...
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Yes, there is no vort separation to start off. Without that, we're not gonna get the sharper trough.

NEG NAO did bring up a good point though with its southern stream bias. Also the EURO "should" be better with Miller A systems so 12z run should be interesting, although not too enthusiastic with its track record this year

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The GFS sees a 1037 HP Nosing itself into N AL .Only one thing gona happen if that's true . You need to change that look

and hope the GFS is pressing the cold too far South

another GFS bias over doing the northern stream energy which is one reason why its crushes the southern stream

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The 12Z GFS does have the trough a bit sharper than the 06Z GFS. That's mainly due to a slightly better vort separation. Overall the run is slightly better, but still looks like a strung out mess. 

trends are good so far overall if you take into account some other models - need the EURO to start getting on board more - good news is we still have plenty of time - we also need these next 2 systems too clear the playing field to see where they end up downstream and maybe get more blocking - also the GEFS has been more northwest of the OP the last few runs a good signal

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The 29th threat is looking less and less likely. Let's hope the -AO builds quickly so we can cash in beginning next weekend.

Yeh man I just never like the midweek. When I see snow in hHouston and sea island GA I smell compression. I like Sunday better. I think Sundays system is prob snow and ice. I like the press from the neg EPO and with so much n stream energy u may get a well time n branch feature to help the feature heading out of tx I don't buy the strong SE ridge on the Euro. MJO prob heading into 7.

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We are clearly going to warmer pattern.

This is okay, it can still snow.

Best

This clarification was necessary, as what you said initially, did not come across as optimistic about snow.

 

So long as the -EPO remains active, we will see periodic shots of cold air through the end of winter, especially met winter. If we can lock in a -AO for a period of time, February could be memorable.

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We are clearly going to warmer pattern.

This is okay, it can still snow.

Best

Looks like the Superbowl will not have real arctic air to deal with thats the only thing certain right now so temps should be above 20 degrees - the question now is precip - type and amount.....

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This is our great snow pattern!

We may get some snow NW next weekend, but looks warm going into February.

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No one forecasted a great SNOW pattern , we all said this was a great 2 - 3 week pattern .

In total we should finish with a 10 day period which  averages about 15 below normal ( quite cold )

and including today there has been between 10 to 15 inches of snow inside a week in most places

 

Now if you were expecting more than that , shouldnt have . We live near a coastal plain at 40 N

No cold pattern EVER is wire to wire and COLD doesnt equal Snow .

So if  FEB is wet not white , that happens in NYC

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