wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0.5"-0.8" for the entire region..Ne pa may see an inch or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0.5"-0.8" for the entire region..Ne pa may see an inch or so.. Did u mean . 05 to .08? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0.5"-0.8" for the entire region..Ne pa may see an inch or so.. Wow thats a bigtime snowstorm!! (im sure it was a typo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No.. That is snowfall not liquid.. I should of specified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Euro show anything at all for tomorrow? ..i think temps are a concern today..montauk already @ 34*..(@630am) i'm @ 30*...strong S winds will bring the east end above freezing today..column supports snow but it won't be a big deal. with regard to wed/thurs event..i think its a whiff..trof stays positively tilted and its OTS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 ..i think temps are a concern today..montauk already @ 34*..(@630am) i'm @ 30*...strong S winds will bring the east end above freezing today..column supports snow but it won't be a big deal. with regard to wed/thurs event..i think its a whiff..trof stays positively tilted and its OTS.. Its saturday and the models havent been too good of late outside. 72-96 hrs ( this past tuesday ). By tommorow night into monday we're going to know ALOT more with what to expect from the wednesday/ thursday system. Wolf and snowgoose seem to still think this storm will happen its entirety and you can put john (earthlight) in there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wolf and snowgoose seem to still think this storm will happen its entirety and you can put john (earthlight) in there as well Storm wed-thurs is ots no? What am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Storm wed-thurs is ots no? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 good morning ralphy, Currently yes but yesterday models run from the CMC, GFS and GGEM all amplified noticably more . Snowgoose gave his good reasonings a few pages back if you care to read. This threat is FAR from dead and shouldnt be given up on till monday the earliest. The models i feel will be coming N&W today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Storm wed-thurs is ots no? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 Currently yes but yesterday models run from the CMC, GFS and GGEM all amplified noticably more. Snowgoose gave his good reasonings a few pages back if you care to read. This threat is FAR from dead and shouldnt be given up on till monday the earliest. The models i feel will be coming N&W today. excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Its saturday and the models havent been too good of late outside. 72-96 hrs ( this past tuesday ). By tommorow night into monday we're going to know ALOT more with what to expect from the wednesday/ thursday system. Wolf and snowgoose seem to still think this storm will happen its entirety and you can put john (earthlight) in there as well Did I miss Earthlight being on board? You never seem to give your thoughts based on what you see. It's easy to quote others. To me, this will be squashed SE based on every model seeing suppression and a very positively tilted look. Here's to hoping I'm wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 sw wind is ripping right now and sitting at 31. Li is going well into the 30s today. I guess the good news is it will melt some of the ice on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 sw wind is ripping right now and sitting at 31. Li is going well into the 30s today. I guess the good news is it will melt some of the ice on the roads The wind was ripping driving to work on sunrise thats for sure. Felt warmer this morning too so that was somewhat refreshing. Look forward to possibly seeing some OES squalls today as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6Z NAM is brewing up a nice looking storm down south at 84 ( yes its out of its range) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012506/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 6Z NAM is brewing up a nice looking storm down south at 84 ( yes its out of its range) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012506/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png This weekend is going to be telling if a N&W trend commences with this storm. With a +NAO, although the PV is nearby i do not think this should be suppressed as the GFS is showing currently, although it did trend better somewhat yesterday. The GFS also tends to overdue a cold push as well. Lots of factors and nuances to look through this weekend to see what the mid week storm may or may not do. Regardless the storm will be LOADED with moisture and plenty of cold air should it put us in its crosshairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Currently yes but yesterday models run from the CMC, GFS and GGEM all amplified noticably more. Snowgoose gave his good reasonings a few pages back if you care to read. This threat is FAR from dead and shouldnt be given up on till monday the earliest. The models i feel will be coming N&W today. My thoughts haven't changed. The pattern supports this system and you do see it on all guidance now, even the 6z GFS. It's going to be a matter of timing. The PV lifting NE, the shortwave being strong enough to dig and make the trough in the east sharper. The shortwave behind it slowing the heck down so it doesn't make the trough more progressive and scoot this thing off shore. There is also a piece of energy showing up on some of the models over the SW. If that ejects with good timing, that could add fuel to the system. So many variables. What we want to begin seeing today or NW shifts and starting with the Euro Ens. Sure, the Euro was terrible with the last system in the mid range, but I believe with Miller As, it is the best. Need to see the surface reflect some of the better timing mentioned above. The s/w itself...well, we're still a ways away from getting good sampling on that. If we do not see a noticeable trend NW by tomorrow's 12z runs, confidence will obviously begin to decrease. BTW, don't be fooled by the NAM and ARW (skewing the SREFs). These models are always amped in their LR, even though the ARW scored a victory lat Tuesday. The DGEX is now a miss, too, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This weekend is going to be telling if a N&W trend commences with this storm. With a +NAO, although the PV is nearby i do not think this should be suppressed as the GFS is showing currently, although it did trend better somewhat yesterday. The GFS also tends to overdue a cold push as well. Lots of factors and nuances to look through this weekend to see what the mid week storm may or may not do. Regardless the storm will be LOADED with moisture and plenty of cold air should it put us in its crosshairs 6Z GEFS has the 29th -30th precip coming further NW then the OP as the metro gets into the .10 -.25 precip - this whole setup for midweek is reminding me of what we went through with the models with the last storm - models are confused right now on how to handle all the energy and the trough........ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012506/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Did I miss Earthlight being on board? You never seem to give your thoughts based on what you see. It's easy to quote others. To me, this will be squashed SE based on every model seeing suppression and a very positively tilted look. Here's to hoping I'm wrong... Well, based on the current H5 features, sure. The trough is too broad and positively tilted. The question is, can we get the pieces in place to sharpen it. The 6z GFS, for example, is MILES better than 0z. The trough is way sharper. This is because there is more separation between the Monday s/w and our s/w behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, based on the current H5 features, sure. The trough is too broad and positively tilted. The question is, can we get the pieces in place to sharpen it. The 6z GFS, for example, is MILES better than 0z. The trough is way sharper. This is because there is more separation between the Monday s/w and our s/w behind it. Your right EURO has been a better model to use for Miller A's but still hesistant to use it as it has performed poorly this year as a whole. But trends are important this weekend and if they're going to trend its a good possibility its N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Your right EURO has been a better model to use for Miller A's but still hesistant to use it as it has performed poorly this year as a whole. But trends are important this weekend and if they're going to trend its a good possibility its N&W I have no doubt the s/w that blows up this system will be stronger than currently modeled. The models have been understating the strength of these all year so that won't be the issue. The key is going to be the separation between this vort and the one before it, that moves NW us on Monday. We need that separation so that the vort can dig dig dig and sharpen the trough. There are other factors too, but the s/w separation is step one and gives us a chance by pulling the trough back west enough to get us into the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Your right EURO has been a better model to use for Miller A's but still hesistant to use it as it has performed poorly this year as a whole. But trends are important this weekend and if they're going to trend its a good possibility its N&WWhy is that a good possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 9z SREFs lol...don't be fooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 what do you think of the SREF 500 mb look. I know its way out in its range but do they look more or less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Why is that a good possibility? Wolf beat me to it. The S/W's have been forecasted too weak throughout this entire winter making them dig alot further south, i.e. tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 is that the last frame available - does it go out any farther ? 9z SREFs lol...don't be fooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the NAO is forecasted to dip towards neutral mid week - this could be important to assist storm development along the coast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Uh oh...sref screaming coastal low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 the NAO is forecasted to dip towards neutral mid week - this could be important to assist storm development along the coast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif That is going to help as well since we'll have no overwhelming -NAO. Also ralphy the SREF's do look better but no there just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Starting at 12z i want to start seeing some more positive trends. Dont want to have any shortwave close to this to kick this thing OTS. Cold air is available, we just need that S/W to dig far enough and i think going by this seasons S/W's to be stronger than progged should do just that. Stay tuned folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Starting at 12z i want to start seeing some more positive trends. Dont want to have any shortwave close to this to kick this thing OTS. Cold air is available, we just need that S/W to dig far enough and i think going by this seasons S/W's to be stronger than progged should do just that. Stay tuned folks still have plenty of time last weeks Tuesday system didn't become a serious threat until 2 days before so we have till Monday for some improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 still have plenty of time last weeks Tuesday system didn't become a serious threat until 2 days before so we have till Monday for some improvements Not saying trend to an all out MECS/HECS blizzard by sunday but trending in that direction though through most models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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