PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I have liked the 1994 look surface wise since I saw the JMA but the Euro, GFS ensembles for next 2 weeks and the CFSV2 for the entire month are just beating then drum of a colder than the JMA look I would love to see by the end of Feb how jan and feb combined stack up vs any year since 77 78 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Which is why our big events occur during a pattern change, hence why you've used a word that i havent heard anyone say this season besides me, archembault event. Although bluewave does bring up a good point in spacing between big snowstorms historically speaking this pattern we're in has pretty much done amazing stuff with poor blocking support so anything is possible. We came really close in early February 2010, but the storm on the 6th got suppressed and we got our big ones on the 10th and 25-26th. That may be the reason why it's so hard to surpass the 40" mark here in one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Time to get the milk and bread. It's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Time to get the milk and bread. It's on. another west trend for the mid week storm on 18z huh? not there yet but its tantalizingly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another west trend for the mid week storm on 18z huh? not there yet but its tantalizingly close With those temps, that is a moderate snow event already. Will change a million times, but good sign that we're seeing models come on board (Dgex, some GEFS members, some CMC members...etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Meanwhile the 18z gfs is wildly different and has zero consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 With those temps, that is a moderate snow event already. Will change a million times, but good sign that we're seeing models come on board (Dgex, some GEFS members, some CMC members...etc) trend it more west and we'll get that Miller A bomb we want! like you said get the sleep tonight and tomorrow night because if these models start tootin' there horn for this wed/Thursday storm this place is going to experience something special for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We came really close in early February 2010, but the storm on the 6th got suppressed and we got our big ones on the 10th and 25-26th. That may be the reason why it's so hard to surpass the 40" mark here in one month. There was also a 8-12" event for the interior on the 23rd. Many areas surpassed the 50" mark for that month up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We came really close in early February 2010, but the storm on the 6th got suppressed and we got our big ones on the 10th and 25-26th. That may be the reason why it's so hard to surpass the 40" mark here in one month. Philly did it in the first 10 days of that month and over 50" total so it definitely can be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Incoming On GFS Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Incoming On GFS Miller A Im really starting to get discouraged with the potential mid week storm. I was hoping the models would start trending west today. its looking more likely that cold high pressure is going to win out. hope I didnt pick the wrong week to come up here. I havent totally given up but its looking pretty slim at the moment. at least I should see some snow showers/squalls tomorrow. thats better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Im really starting to get discouraged with the potential mid week storm. I was hoping the models would start trending west today. its looking more likely that cold high pressure is going to win out. hope I didnt pick the wrong week to come up here. I havent totally given up but its looking pretty slim at the moment. at least I should see some snow showers/squalls tomorrow. thats better than nothing if you paid attention to this weeks storm its WAY too early to give up on any threat next week. the models did trend better today so that is a BIG start. going to be an active storm tracking week starting sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Im really starting to get discouraged with the potential mid week storm. I was hoping the models would start trending west today. its looking more likely that cold high pressure is going to win out. hope I didnt pick the wrong week to come up here. I havent totally given up but its looking pretty slim at the moment. at least I should see some snow showers/squalls tomorrow. thats better than nothing Wait until Sunday eve........We have been winning late in the games this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If not for truncation the system at 192/204 would have been huge, give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 if you paid attention to this weeks storm its WAY too early to give up on any threat next week. the models did trend better today so that is a BIG start. going to be an active storm tracking week starting sunday yea,,,I havent written it off. that wouldnt be wise the way this winter has been. was just hoping for a little more changes with the models today. I know there's still time tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 If not for truncation the system at 192/204 would have been huge, give it time. been great at PbP lately brother, keep it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wait until Sunday eve........We have been winning late in the games this winter.... exactly, surprised to still see so many short fuses this winter after both our events as you said weren't sniffed out on our models until late in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am sold beyond belief with the pattern , I have been barking from 10 days ago that's this looks great I 1st posted on it when the warm up began , I don't know if its mid week or a really long duration event SB wknd and beyond . I think most of finish with 50 inches of snow for the Year the CFSV2 for Feb is tarded , cold and snowy will throw up map in a bit . The models have sharpened stuff up this year inside 96 hours , so I am gona wait a bit . Just not sure which one to key on I am enjoying this snow pack and biter cold; but Upton has us going above freezing by next Friday. How do we manage to warm up so much even with deep negative anomalies? I hope we don't spend more than one day above freezing because that would wreck havoc on our snow pack. I am praying that we don't go above freezing on Monday. It just makes me cringe to see our predicted temp on Monday to be 37 degrees. Overall, I would prefer multiple 3-6" snow storms and frigid air in order to keep the snow pack instead of marginal cold during a KU event that melts very fast due to the ensuing pattern breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am enjoying this snow pack and biter cold; but Upton has us going above freezing by next Friday. How do we manage to warm up so much even with deep negative anomalies? I hope we don't spend more than one day above freezing because that would wreck havoc on our snow pack. I am praying that we don't go above freezing on Monday. It just makes me cringe to see our predicted temp on Monday to be 37 degrees. Overall, I would prefer multiple 3-6" snow storms and frigid air in order to keep the snow pack instead of marginal cold during a KU event that melts very fast due to the ensuing pattern breakdown. Staying this cold this long is very difficult to do. Expect mid 30s Monday before deep freeze again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am enjoying this snow pack and biter cold; but Upton has us going above freezing by next Friday. How do we manage to warm up so much even with deep negative anomalies? I hope we don't spend more than one day above freezing because that would wreck havoc on our snow pack. I am praying that we don't go above freezing on Monday. It just makes me cringe to see our predicted temp on Monday to be 37 degrees. That is likely another one day run at near normal ahead of the next arctic front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Staying this cold this long is very difficult to do. Expect mid 30s Monday before deep freeze again. Even by adding a great west-based -NAO block in this current pattern would still not prevent us from going above freezing for one day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am enjoying this snow pack and biter cold; but Upton has us going above freezing by next Friday. How do we manage to warm up so much even with deep negative anomalies? I hope we don't spend more than one day above freezing because that would wreck havoc on our snow pack. I am praying that we don't go above freezing on Monday. It just makes me cringe to see our predicted temp on Monday to be 37 degrees. Overall, I would prefer multiple 3-6" snow storms and frigid air in order to keep the snow pack instead of marginal cold during a KU event that melts very fast due to the ensuing pattern breakdown. By that time we have 10 days out of 11 days under freezing with 5 days or so staying in the teens for highs and five or more with single digit lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here is the color maps for the GGEM. Wow, so close. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That Threat Is Far From dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 00Z GFS ensembles look way NW of the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Post please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 00Z GFS ensembles look way NW of the Op Where do you see the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 any word on the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 East of 12z, a total whiff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Euro show anything at all for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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