Saturn510 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Will this be like the previous storm where we saw the tues threat and a thurs/friday? It was the tuesday system that eventually happened. Snowgoose seemed to like the 120 hr one and the gfs hints at the 168 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just think we should get to sunday night before becoming excited or move on from this. One thing is though if it does hit us, nothing much better than a Miller A with STJ connection and fresh cold air to work with. Widespread major snowfall, but we'll see I agree that I this thing comes in its a slam dunk. There was a storm in the 90s that missed NYC and most of li that slammed mtk. With a super tight east west gradient. While not as painful to watch as feb 5/6 10 it was still bad. I wouldn't want that kind of near miss either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Will this be like the previous storm where we saw the tues threat and a thurs/friday? It was the tuesday system that eventually happened. Snowgoose seemed to like the 120 hr one and the gfs hints at the 168 hr. The middle week storm still has legs for sure. Snowgoose knows his stuff as well so i would listen to what he has to say. Just dont sleep on any Lp in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I have a feeling the 12z Euro will show some sort of a hit for next Thurday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GEFS ensemble mean has precip almost back to Pittsburgh with the possible system late next week but the cluster is definitely offshore. The mean low is southeast of the benchmark at hour 162 and it's fairly tightly clustered, however at hour 168 the spread is from basically Cape Cod all the way to Bermuda. The mean is pretty suppressed and flat. But there are two moderate hits among the individuals in the 132-144 timeframe. The rest are well offshore with the SLP with poor h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro is frustratingly close to pulling the mid-week system up the coast. If only the base of that trough was a bit sharper it would be a tremendous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro is frustratingly close to pulling the mid-week system up the coast. If only the base of that trough was a bit sharper it would be a tremendous system. at least it is trending still time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro is frustratingly close to pulling the mid-week system up the coast. If only the base of that trough was a bit sharper it would be a tremendous system.Big picture with still 100+ hours to go that isnt too bad. Snowgoose may be onto something while others try to jump ship too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm very confident this will hit or be extremely close, GFS bias of slamming cold air too far south is one factor but the other is in this sort of pattern the arctic highs tend to settle more straight south vs moving east my guess is the high that sort of moves east to block this system will one, get more stubborn on departing east and two, likely end up more west and south initially which may allow this thing to develop more west and come up the coastHey man , I think you and I have been on the same side since December on almost every system .But this one I just don't like I am really buying the cold press and I think the 2 nd feature that's rolling through the upper Midwest hurts this The Canadian is the furthest north but I think it's missing the cold press and I think it's wrong I don't call off the dogs until inside 72 hours , but I like the press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey man , I think you and I have been on the same side since December on almost every system . But this one I just don't like I am really buying the cold press and I think the 2 nd feature that's rolling through the upper Midwest hurts this The Canadian is the furthest north but I think it's missing the cold press and I think it's wrong I don't call off the dogs until inside 72 hours , but I like the press This storm is just TOO good to pass up. But your right the cold press has been pretty damn strong when it makes its push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I strongly feel next week's storm is happening. There's a ton of cold dumping in the middle of the country and a lot of energy rounding the base of the trough. If the models were always correct 5 days out, then none of us would have any snow on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I strongly feel next week's storm is happening. There's a ton of cold dumping in the middle of the country and a lot of energy rounding the base of the trough. If the models were always correct 5 days out, then none of us would have any snow on the ground right now. Paul brings up a good point. That PV ends up being too strong or not being displaced to the right location it'll hurt the storms chances. Its not set in stone if it does or doesnt happen but the man has a point, and i hope paul is wrong on this one as much as i know how good he is at this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Paul brings up a good point. That PV ends up being too strong or not being displaced to the right location it'll hurt the storms chances. Its not set in stone if it does or doesnt happen but the man has a point, and i hope paul is wrong on this one as much as i know how good he is at this stuff I hope I'm wrong too. Really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I hope I'm wrong too. Really wrong. You've been wrong before! ...cheers to you being wrong again buddy hahaha. Its going to be interesting this weekend and monday as well. Isnt john enticed with this threat as well? I know for a fact his inner-weenie is praying for this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pretty nice jump with the 700mb rh, 60%-80% in snj.. The trend has been north west all winter as stated by mount holly this morning.. Models tend to overdue cold in the long range, i should of hit below 0 like 10 times this yr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You've been wrong before! ...cheers to you being wrong again buddy hahaha. Its going to be interesting this weekend and monday as well. Isnt john enticed with this threat as well? I know for a fact his inner-weenie is praying for this as well Been rare this winter bud But this time it would be my pleasure. I just have to see some differences 1st at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z JMA was tantalizingly close to pulling off a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey man , I think you and I have been on the same side since December on almost every system . But this one I just don't like I am really buying the cold press and I think the 2 nd feature that's rolling through the upper Midwest hurts this The Canadian is the furthest north but I think it's missing the cold press and I think it's wrong I don't call off the dogs until inside 72 hours , but I like the press The cold has been overdone on the models all season. Sure, it's been cold, but the last arctic outbreak was bad, but not as prolonged as the models originally advertised. As for the Midwest feature, it's important to note that the GFS had this closed off at H5. That is actually very important and would help to slow down the pattern and allow the lead vort to dig deeper and further amplify the trough. The PNA relaxing and an -AO building, this looks like a classic archambault event. Frankly, I remain as confident for this storm as I have been since the beginning of last year. Sometime between 1/29 and 2/1 we are getting a MECS+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The cold has been overdone on the models all season. Sure, it's been cold, but the last arctic outbreak was bad, but not as prolonged as the models originally advertised. As for the Midwest feature, it's important to note that the GFS had this closed off at H5. That is actually very important and would help to slow down the pattern and allow the lead vort to dig deeper and further amplify the trough. The PNA relaxing and an -AO building, this looks like a classic archambault event. Frankly, I remain as confident for this storm as I have been since the beginning of last year. Sometime between 1/29 and 2/1 we are getting a MECS+. Next week storm may very well be our biggest event of the year. If all the ingredients come together its got the makings of something memorable for the entire megalopolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Next week storm may very well be our biggest event of the year. If all the ingredients come together its got the makings of something memorable for the entire megalopolis We are all rooting for the blockbuster, but at worst it seems models are moving towards a SNOWY vs OTS solution for many along the EC the 2nd half of next week. Of course, that won't be good enough for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The cold has been overdone on the models all season. Sure, it's been cold, but the last arctic outbreak was bad, but not as prolonged as the models originally advertised. As for the Midwest feature, it's important to note that the GFS had this closed off at H5. That is actually very important and would help to slow down the pattern and allow the lead vort to dig deeper and further amplify the trough. The PNA relaxing and an -AO building, this looks like a classic archambault event. Frankly, I remain as confident for this storm as I have been since the beginning of last year. Sometime between 1/29 and 2/1 we are getting a MECS+. I am sold beyond belief with the pattern , I have been barking from 10 days ago that's this looks great I 1st posted on it when the warm up began , I don't know if its mid week or a really long duration event SB wknd and beyond . I think most of finish with 50 inches of snow for the Year the CFSV2 for Feb is tarded , cold and snowy will throw up map in a bit . The models have sharpened stuff up this year inside 96 hours , so I am gona wait a bit . Just not sure which one to key on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am sold beyond belief with the pattern , I have been barking from 10 days ago that's this looks great I 1st posted on it when the warm up began , I don't know if its mid week or a really long duration event SB wknd and beyond . I think most of finish with 50 inches of snow for the Year the CFSV2 for Feb is tarded , cold and snowy will throw up map in a bit . The models have sharpened stuff up this year inside 96 hours , so I am gona wait a bit . Just not sure which one to key on Oh I know you've been bullish, just making the case that the storm next week is probably THE storm of the season to be bullish on. This will be our best chance for an upper end KU, I believe, this season. Definitely cannot write it off after seeing the huge positive trends on today's models. Get some sleep now my friend...starting Monday, you won't get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Next week storm may very well be our biggest event of the year. If all the ingredients come together its got the makings of something memorable for the entire megalopolis Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A lot of us, myself included would rather have the big event on the day of the Super Bowl itself. From the looks of things it's just going to be off by two or three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Oh I know you've been bullish, just making the case that the storm next week is probably THE storm of the season to be bullish on. This will be our best chance for an upper end KU, I believe, this season. Definitely cannot write it off after seeing the huge positive trends on today's models. Get some sleep now my friend...starting Monday, you won't get much. No sleep , wife wants nite out , says I hang here to much , Dec - March really test marriages . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think that we are asking too much for another storm next week around the magnitude that we saw this week and earlier in the month. Even in epic snow patterns like 09-10 and 10-11, the major events were generally spaced apart by 10 days or more for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think that we are asking too much for another storm next week around the magnitude that we saw this week and earlier in the month. Even in epic snow patterns like 09-10 and 10-11, the major events were generally spaced apart by 10 days or more for us. Without sounding too bullish or weenieish I just think this upcoming pattern has many similarities to February 2003. I think we end up sacrificing the next few threats for a big one around the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's funny, I keep looking at the models for the coming weeks and seeing the -10 C 850 thinking for the first split second it's the 0 C 850 and a rough rain/snow line. It's nice to have an extended cold pattern for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Without sounding too bullish or weenieish I just think this upcoming pattern has many similarities to February 2003. I think we end up sacrificing the next few threats for a big one around the 4th. I don't see how the threats on the 29th/30th and 1st/2nd are related to the bigger system around 2/4-2/5. That last system is after the pattern has flipped to more zonal. The previous two are possible as the pattern flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see how the threats on the 29th/30th and 1st/2nd are related to the bigger system around 2/4-2/5. That last system is after the pattern has flipped to more zonal. The previous two are possible as the pattern flips. Which is why our big events occur during a pattern change, hence why you've used a word that i havent heard anyone say this season besides me, archembault event. Although bluewave does bring up a good point in spacing between big snowstorms historically speaking this pattern we're in has pretty much done amazing stuff with poor blocking support so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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