ravensrule Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sorry for the silly questions but is there a link to a free euro site thanks in advance There are not really any good free Euro sites. www.wunderground.com has some real crappy maps. If you want to pay the 2 best options are stormvista and weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The GGEM is way closer to the SE coast...the GFS is likely going through its normal too cold too suppressed look...this may not be a storm up here but its likely going to be for the SE Coast where the GFS shows nothing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z GGEM for next Thursdayhttp://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg West of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The GGEM is way closer to the SE coast...the GFS is likely going through its normal too cold too suppressed look...this may not be a storm up here but its likely going to be for the SE Coast where the GFS shows nothing right now I'm fine with having a positively tilted trough shown in this range in this pattern considering how the last storm trended in the last couple days before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 As crazy as it sounds, this coastal low on the 28th/29th would actually bring snow to the Outer Banks. I would think that's an extremely rare occurrence. It snows there every couple years or so, if not yearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It snows there every couple years or so, if not yearly. Flakes flying yes, accumulation though is not too common, I think February 03 may have been their last big accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Flakes flying yes, accumulation though is not too common, I think February 03 may have been their last big accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It snows there every couple years or so, if not yearly. http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130128113051AA9jbiK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130128113051AA9jbiK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The January 29-30 2010 storm was the last big storm down here in the western state. Need a north west trend on this one it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Next week is going to be one of those weeks where we're not going to get alot of sleep. From the mid-week storm to the superbowl storm which is still rearing its head its going to be ALOT of model watching and also forecasting the troughs, cold air, STJ interaction etc. get your sleep this weekend because next week you may not be getting very much if this pattern does indeed want to deliver something memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What did the 0z Euro show? All of this quietness in this thread is getting me real nervous. It seems that the quieter it gets, the more bearish next week and beyond is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 What did the 0z Euro show? All of this quietness in this thread is getting me real nervous. It seems that the quieter it gets, the more bearish next week and beyond is. Around 10:30 when 12z model suite starts we should start getting a good amount of information flowing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sorry for the silly questions but is there a link to a free euro site thanks in advance www.ecmwf.int, click the image on bottom left, also Plymouth releases euro on 24 hr increments starting at 1pm, you dont get precip maps but you get 500mb and surface, I'm at work ill link you when im home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 www.ecmwf.int, click the image on bottom left, also Plymouth releases euro on 24 hr increments starting at 1pm, you dont get precip maps but you get 500mb and surface, I'm at work ill link you when im home Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wow. NBC New York is so bullish with the cold for NYC. My only issue is the 35-degree temp for Monday. Any chance the actual high could still be below freezing or are we screwed? 7-DAY FORECAST Today Sat 25 Sun 26 Mon 27 Tue 28 Wed 29 Thu 30 19° | 14° Mostly Sunny Hum.: 43% Precip.: 10% Wind:W at 13 mph 29° | 10° Scattered Snow Showers Wind Hum.: 56% Precip.: 50% Wind:SSW at 23 mph 20° | 18° Partly Cloudy Hum.: 57% Precip.: 0% Wind:W at 17 mph 35° | 6° AM Clouds PM Sun Hum.: 64% Precip.: 0% Wind:W at 17 mph 17° | 3° Partly Cloudy Hum.: 68% Precip.: 10% Wind:W at 17 mph 18° | 1° Mostly Sunny Hum.: 73% Precip.: 10% Wind:W at 17 mph 23° | 16° Partly Cloudy Hum.: 61% Precip.: 10% Wind:W at 17 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS is coming northwest for the end of next week. The PV looks slightly west and the trough seems to have a bit more room to amplify, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well...it's just not going to happen, despite the PV looking further west. I think if the low formed further north we would have stood a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well...it's just not going to happen, despite the PV looking further west. I think if the low formed further north we would have stood a better chance. Trended better and no one should really be discouraged at this point. By monday/tuesday we'll have lots more insight on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 All I will say is there entirely too much talk about a mecs and and secs every time some see a slp off the ec and jump to these outrageous comparisons. Just take what pattern gives you if the midweek storm ( which I don't buy ) doesnt stick the SB system or the one following that might it's a great pattern . but not every storm is 12 to 24 But u may still get to 40 to 50 inches of snow for the year I think Feb gets us over the hump. Lotta stuff on the board just temper the huge comparisons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well...it's just not going to happen, despite the PV looking further west. I think if the low formed further north we would have stood a better chance. Do we still go above freezing on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Do we still go above freezing on Monday? The city is very close, LI yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wouldn't sleep on next week's potential. The gfs has radically shifted to something more substantial, maybe it's the start of a trend. I see huge phasing potential but am not sure if it will be enough to affect us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wouldn't sleep on next week's potential. The gfs has radically shifted to something more substantial, maybe it's the start of a trend. I see huge phasing potential but am not sure if it will be enough to affect us yet. Is the potential there? Yes. Could it happen? Yes. Like i stated earlier i strongly suggest getting through the weekend before looking at what the models are going to say. We are currently in a volatile pattern where small changes in the flow could have substantial ramifications on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is the potential there? Yes. Could it happen? Yes. Like i stated earlier i strongly suggest getting through the weekend before looking at what the models are going to say. We are currently in a volatile pattern where small changes in the flow could have substantial ramifications on the EC. In a perfect world, or in this case a perfect winter, we would score with the storm next week, get a few inches for the SB, and then get a major overrunning storm a few days after that with more storms to follow. I think the chances for a significant storm next week are about 30%, snow for the SB at least 45%, and snow after that probably 70%+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GGEM for middle to end of next week. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg It's a miss but so close. The low is loaded with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GGEM for middle to end of next week. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg It's a miss but so close. The low is loaded with moisture. NO threat should be given up on as a rule outside 72 hours after this weeks snafu. That is the most logical approach in my opinion, and dont live or die by every model run as well . Paul said it perfect it wants to snow just a matter of when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GGEM for middle to end of next week. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg It's a miss but so close. The low is loaded with moisture. I'm very confident this will hit or be extremely close, GFS bias of slamming cold air too far south is one factor but the other is in this sort of pattern the arctic highs tend to settle more straight south vs moving east my guess is the high that sort of moves east to block this system will one, get more stubborn on departing east and two, likely end up more west and south initially which may allow this thing to develop more west and come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm very confident this will hit or be extremely close, GFS bias of slamming cold air too far south is one factor but the other is in this sort of pattern the arctic highs tend to settle more straight south vs moving east my guess is the high that sort of moves east to block this system will one, get more stubborn on departing east and two, likely end up more west and south initially which may allow this thing to develop more west and come up the coastJust think we should get to sunday night before becoming excited or move on from this. One thing is though if it does hit us, nothing much better than a Miller A with STJ connection and fresh cold air to work with. Widespread major snowfall, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GEFS ensemble mean has precip almost back to Pittsburgh with the possible system late next week but the cluster is definitely offshore. The mean low is southeast of the benchmark at hour 162 and it's fairly tightly clustered, however at hour 168 the spread is from basically Cape Cod all the way to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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