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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The GGEM is way closer to the SE coast...the GFS is likely going through its normal too cold too suppressed look...this may not be a storm up here but its likely going to be for the SE Coast where the GFS shows nothing right now

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_C

I'm fine with having a positively tilted trough shown in this range in this pattern considering how the last storm trended in the last couple days before it happened.
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Next week is going to be one of those weeks where we're not going to get alot of sleep. From the mid-week storm to the superbowl storm which is still rearing its head its going to be ALOT of model watching and also forecasting the troughs, cold air, STJ interaction etc. get your sleep this weekend because next week you may not be getting very much if this pattern does indeed want to deliver something memorable.

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Sorry for the silly questions but is there a link to a free euro site thanks in advance

www.ecmwf.int, click the image on bottom left, also Plymouth releases euro on 24 hr increments starting at 1pm, you dont get precip maps but you get 500mb and surface, I'm at work ill link you when im home

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Wow. NBC New York is so bullish with the cold for NYC. My only issue is the 35-degree temp for Monday. Any chance the actual high could still be below freezing or are we screwed?

 

7-DAY FORECAST

  • Today
  • Sat 25
  • Sun 26
  • Mon 27
  • Tue 28
  • Wed 29
  • Thu 30
  • new_wx_65.png
    19° | 14°
    Mostly Sunny
    Hum.: 43%
    Precip.: 10%
    Wind:W at 
    13 mph
  • new_wx_74.png
    29° | 10°
    Scattered Snow Showers Wind
    Hum.: 56%
    Precip.: 50%
    Wind:SSW at 
    23 mph
  • new_wx_66.png
    20° | 18°
    Partly Cloudy
    Hum.: 57%
    Precip.: 0%
    Wind:W at 
    17 mph
  • new_wx_66.png
    35° | 6°
    AM Clouds PM Sun
    Hum.: 64%
    Precip.: 0%
    Wind:W at 
    17 mph
  • new_wx_66.png
    17° | 3°
    Partly Cloudy
    Hum.: 68%
    Precip.: 10%
    Wind:W at 
    17 mph
  • new_wx_65.png
    18° | 1°
    Mostly Sunny
    Hum.: 73%
    Precip.: 10%
    Wind:W at 
    17 mph
  • new_wx_66.png
    23° | 16°
    Partly Cloudy
    Hum.: 61%
    Precip.: 10%
    Wind:W at 
    17 mph
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Well...it's just not going to happen, despite the PV looking further west. I think if the low formed further north we would have stood a better chance.

Trended better and no one should really be discouraged at this point. By monday/tuesday we'll have lots more insight on this

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All I will say is there entirely too much talk about a mecs and and secs every time some see a slp off the ec and jump to these outrageous comparisons.

Just take what pattern gives you

if the midweek storm ( which I don't buy ) doesnt stick the SB system or the one following that might it's a great pattern .

but not every storm is 12 to 24

But u may still get to 40 to 50 inches of snow for the year

I think Feb gets us over the hump. Lotta stuff on the board just temper the huge comparisons

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I wouldn't sleep on next week's potential. The gfs has radically shifted to something more substantial, maybe it's the start of a trend. I see huge phasing potential but am not sure if it will be enough to affect us yet.

Is the potential there? Yes. Could it happen? Yes. Like i stated earlier i strongly suggest getting through the weekend before looking at what the models are going to say. We are currently in a volatile pattern where small changes in the flow could have substantial ramifications on the EC.

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Is the potential there? Yes. Could it happen? Yes. Like i stated earlier i strongly suggest getting through the weekend before looking at what the models are going to say. We are currently in a volatile pattern where small changes in the flow could have substantial ramifications on the EC.

 

In a perfect world, or in this case a perfect winter, we would score with the storm next week, get a few inches for the SB, and then get a major overrunning storm a few days after that with more storms to follow. 

 

I think the chances for a significant storm next week are about 30%, snow for the SB at least 45%, and snow after that probably 70%+. 

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12z GGEM for middle to end of next week.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

It's a miss but so close. The low is loaded with moisture.

NO threat should be given up on as a rule outside 72 hours after this weeks snafu. That is the most logical approach in my opinion, and dont live or die by every model run as well ;). Paul said it perfect it wants to snow just a matter of when

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12z GGEM for middle to end of next week.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

It's a miss but so close. The low is loaded with moisture.

I'm very confident this will hit or be extremely close, GFS bias of slamming cold air too far south is one factor but the other is in this sort of pattern the arctic highs tend to settle more straight south vs moving east my guess is the high that sort of moves east to block this system will one, get more stubborn on departing east and two, likely end up more west and south initially which may allow this thing to develop more west and come up the coast

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I'm very confident this will hit or be extremely close, GFS bias of slamming cold air too far south is one factor but the other is in this sort of pattern the arctic highs tend to settle more straight south vs moving east my guess is the high that sort of moves east to block this system will one, get more stubborn on departing east and two, likely end up more west and south initially which may allow this thing to develop more west and come up the coast

Just think we should get to sunday night before becoming excited or move on from this. One thing is though if it does hit us, nothing much better than a Miller A with STJ connection and fresh cold air to work with. Widespread major snowfall, but we'll see
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12z GEFS ensemble mean has precip almost back to Pittsburgh with the possible system late next week but the cluster is definitely offshore. The mean low is southeast of the benchmark at hour 162 and it's fairly tightly clustered, however at hour 168 the spread is from basically Cape Cod all the way to Bermuda.

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