Zir0b Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 pretty insane pattern on the 12z euro day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 SB hit ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro nearly gives us a KU from this wave at 150 hours. It will be interesting to see how the previous two shortwaves rotating around the PV SAT and MON impact the track of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 thanks. seems like our best storms have come from seemingly glancing blows in the medium range Don't take any solution verbatim at this range-if the overall pattern is there, chances are it will produce in some capacity. Look at what we just had with a progressive, neutral NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is the 12z Euro even more frigid than the 0z was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is the 12z Euro even more frigid than the 0z was? It's colder than 12z yesterday was at the end of the run since the -EPO is stronger on the run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The COLD shot that follows ( what could be a SB storm Euro puts down 4 inches plus ,_ may be colder than whats coming through the lakes early next week , which is colder than this current air mass. That's just NUTS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 12z JMA is not that far off from something big for the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I saw the piece this AM and said , that kinda looks compressed to me , The thought process was the NW flow was easterly enough , and I bit on the SB . ( which I still like ) But the 12z GFS was close as is the Euro , HM loved this period from 10 days ago . Just need a slight retrogression of the trough west and the window opens up again on the EC We need the Monday system to be stronger than modeled (as most vorts have been this season) and miss us way to the NW...it would then swing around the PV and pull the trough far enough west to give us a miller a KU storm around the 29th. Euro is close to showing that and I am very close to WOOFING for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 thanks! have really missed all the chatter and excitement on this forum since I moved to the southeast. im back in my hometown of Monmouth cty nj from tomorrow till feb 2. its lookin like I picked a pretty good time to head up Charleston gets 6-8" on the Euro from the Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Charleston gets 6-8" on the Euro from the Miller A haha! wouldn't that be my luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We need the Monday system to be stronger than modeled (as most vorts have been this season) and miss us way to the NW...it would then swing around the PV and pull the trough far enough west to give us a miller a KU storm around the 29th. Euro is close to showing that and I am very close to WOOFING for this storm. The Euro has been the furthest North of all the guidance pulling the SW through the lakes on Monday , the NAM is the strongest , the last 2 SW that came through strengthened inside 48 hours , so by Sat the models should pick up if the vortex regresses enough allowing the trough to be closer to the coast . The amount of chances in this period will really spoil people , this really isn't the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro has been the furthest North of all the guidance pulling the SW through the lakes on Monday , the NAM is the strongest , the last 2 SW that came through strengthened inside 48 hours , so by Sat the models should pick up if the vortex regresses enough allowing the trough to be closer to the coast . The amount of chances in this period will really spoil people , this really isn't the norm Agreed. And, yes, the Euro being the furthest north with Monday's system is why we end up with the KU graze. If it were to strengthen the energy dropping down, we would be destroyed by snow from that next system. I am as excited about the MECS+ chances between 1/29 and 2/2 as I have been all season and even through last year. I feel strongly that we're getting something big during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro has been the furthest North of all the guidance pulling the SW through the lakes on Monday , the NAM is the strongest , the last 2 SW that came through strengthened inside 48 hours , so by Sat the models should pick up if the vortex regresses enough allowing the trough to be closer to the coast . The amount of chances in this period will really spoil people , this really isn't the norm Didn't some people say this in '09-'10 and '10-'11? In addition to stating that we would never see those types of winters in our lifetimes again? Because look what's happening in the current 15-day modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Agreed. And, yes, the Euro being the furthest north with Monday's system is why we end up with the KU graze. If it were to strengthen the energy dropping down, we would be destroyed by snow from that next system. I am as excited about the MECS+ chances between 1/29 and 2/2 as I have been all season and even through last year. I feel strongly that we're getting something big during this period. I think most on this board are super excited as well with the possibilities that lay ahead for a upper end KU. Its not often that some of the most humble posters like you are so damn gung-ho on a pattern, but mother nature is giving it all to us this winter so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think most on this board are super excited as well with the possibilities that lay ahead for a upper end KU. Its not often that some of the most humble posters like you are so damn gung-ho on a pattern, but mother nature is giving it all to us this winter so far! its really amazing both how this winters been and what it looks to be for the next 2-3 weeks. im in the damn southeast but im still excited looking in from afar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 its really amazing both how this winters been and what it looks to be for the next 2-3 weeks. im in the damn southeast but im still excited looking in from afar Ouch! Get your ass up here and have some fun up here then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Didn't some people say this in '09-'10 and '10-'11? In addition to stating that we would never see those types of winters in our lifetimes again? Because look what's happening in the current 15-day modeling. If you lived through the 80's and some 90's winters you would understand that we have been spoiled for the last decade...some years it seemed as if it found every way not to snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ouch! Get your ass up here and have some fun up here then! headed up there tomorrow and will be till feb2. goin to be interesting to see how I cope with the cold. my damn yankee blood has really thinned over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What happens the middle or end of next week all depends on what happens Sunday-Monday. If that systems intensifies enough, it will sharpen the trough in its wake, allowing it to retrograde just slightly, and then we could get a storm coming up the coast Tuesday night or Wednesday. And what happens with that system effects what might happen around Superbowl Sunday. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 headed up there tomorrow and will be till feb2. goin to be interesting to see how I cope with the cold. my damn yankee blood has really thinned over the years Been up here my whole life and sinuses still can take the cold that much. Currently fighting an upper respritory infection, sinus infection and broke a fever last night, and to top it off have inventory today as well. FAIL! Haha Im really hoping, praying, voodoo'ing etc. that this pattern will deliver to its fullest. Its a damn buffet with all these storms around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 What happens the middle or end of next week all depends on what happens Sunday-Monday. If that systems intensifies enough, it will sharpen the trough in its wake, allowing it to retrograde just slightly, and then we could get a storm coming up the coast Tuesday night or Wednesday. And what happens with that system effects what might happen around Superbowl Sunday. WX/PT I cant see how we atleast dont get one doozy of a storm in the next 7-10 days. The powder keg is there we just need mother nature to stick that match and light it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 From HM in the MA thread: As others have noted, MR-LR modeling has been quite variable with individual storm threats. But longer-term means, climo and general patterns have been stellar in the numerical guidance. Anyway, notice the modeling doesn't quite partially phase these waves as the system leaves the East. The GFS was actually a lot closer in doing it than the ECMWF. We'll see how this goes but I like the potential a lot for the following reasons:1. All 3 streams are present and become 1 upper-level jet (plot 200mb winds e.g.) up the East Coast.2. This wave drops straight down from polar lats behind a departing PV that was just anomalously south.3. Brief "-NAO west" blip negative at Day 3-5 will begin to rise thereafter as PV races back north.4. Some Pacific flow begins undercutting PNA in about 5 days.5. Enhanced oceanic baroclinicity from recent/incoming Arctic Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If you lived through the 80's and some 90's winters you would understand that we have been spoiled for the last decade...some years it seemed as if it found every way not to snow around here. If 2011-12 wasn't a clunker winter, then we would have had 5 consecutive years with above-normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That long lived EPO ridge keeps on rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Upton is bullish on next week's potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Upton is bullish on next week's potentialWhat are they saying? I am on my phone so I can't check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 As crazy as it sounds, this coastal low on the 28th/29th would actually bring snow to the Outer Banks. I would think that's an extremely rare occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 As crazy as it sounds, this coastal low on the 28th/29th would actually bring snow to the Outer Banks. I would think that's an extremely rare occurrence.The way this winters gone wouldnt doubt it. Going to be one to tell my kids when i have them one day thats for sure. My dad always bought up 78' now i can tell them winters ive experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 As crazy as it sounds, this coastal low on the 28th/29th would actually bring snow to the Outer Banks. I would think that's an extremely rare occurrence.Lol, it happened a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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