IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well now the GFS is blowing up a storm in the plains on Saturday night with seemingly split flow and zero vorticy at H5. Would be light to moderate snow falling during the Super Bowl verbatim on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We might have to sacrifice the system on the Super Bowl for the one coming around the 5th/6th. The PV looks to be retreating west into Central Canada and we'll be in a better place for systems to phase in over the south. We actually get what I believe is a triple phaser at hour 348. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 We might have to sacrifice the system on the Super Bowl for the one coming around the 5th/6th. The PV looks to be retreating west into Central Canada and we'll be in a better place for systems to phase in over the south. We actually get what I believe is a triple phaser at hour 348. Really? Hour 348? Lets step back into reality. The models pooped the bed with this last storm in under 3 days lol jk. Also a triple phaser would most likely go west of us and not up the coast if im not mistaken giving us warm air correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We might have to sacrifice the system on the Super Bowl for the one coming around the 5th/6th. The PV looks to be retreating west into Central Canada and we'll be in a better place for systems to phase in over the south. We actually get what I believe is a triple phaser at hour 348. Not that I'm looking to put much time/effort into Hr 348, but time to start moving some of this into a February discussion thread for more pattern discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not that I'm looking to put much time/effort into Hr 348, but time to start moving some of this into a February discussion thread for more pattern discussion? February thread has been started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Really? Hour 348? Lets step back into reality. The models pooped the bed with this last storm in under 3 days lol jk. Also a triple phaser would most likely go west of us and not up the coast if im not mistaken giving us warm air correct? Calm yourself, this is a long range discussion thread. Nobody is making a thread for day 14 threats. Just FYI, what track a triple phaser took in this pattern would depend on the orientation of the polar vortex and timing. The extended long range is getting extra attention because of the Super Bowl and the implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Calm yourself, this is a long range discussion thread. Nobody is making a thread for day 14 threats. Just FYI, what track a triple phaser took in this pattern would depend on the orientation of the polar vortex and timing. You calm down! You calm down! didnt mean to come off like an.....idiot just kidding with ya. I was just asking about a typical track of a triple phaser that i know would depend on many factors that would be ironed out closer to the event. 93' was a triple phaser and ran up the west of the apps. I know where the phase takes place is important, and also they are quite rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You calm down! You calm down! didnt mean to come off like an.....idiot just kidding with ya. I was just asking about a typical track of a triple phaser that i know would depend on many factors that would be ironed out closer to the event. 93' was a triple phaser and ran up the west of the apps. I know where the phase takes place is important, and also they are quite rare I would just like to clarify that I'm not calling for a triple phaser, I was just giving my interpretation of the model. Anything shown after truncation should be taken with a large grain of salt. Strange things can happen in that range. If it wasn't for the Super Bowl being in New Jersey I wouldn't have even brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensembles have a strong storm signal for the first seven days of February, perhaps even multiple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensembles have a strong storm signal for the first seven days of February, perhaps even multiple. How about for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 How about for next week? You can extrapolate from next week on since they're are so many variables. Look how tuesday snook up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Strong gradient pattern could be setting up for first week of February as the southern stream really starts up while the -EPO and PV stick around providing cold air to our region. Very exciting period coming with numerous snow chances, though there will be some risk of a storm that cuts more inland because of the +NAO so not every event could be snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ugh, no mention of the 12z Euro or GGEM?. It's absolutely quiet in here. That must mean they show either an epic torch, cold and dry and/or backed off on the frigid cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You calm down! You calm down! didnt mean to come off like an.....idiot just kidding with ya. I was just asking about a typical track of a triple phaser that i know would depend on many factors that would be ironed out closer to the event. 93' was a triple phaser and ran up the west of the apps. I know where the phase takes place is important, and also they are quite rare March 1993 hugged the coast. Had it been even 50-75 miles further east, there would have been 24"+ in all of the major cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 March 1993 hugged the coast. Had it been even 50-75 miles further east, there would have been 24"+ in all of the major cities. JM, think we might get two inches by us on Saturday? Monday possible too? Superbowl prediction?...snow not score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 With above normal heights now building into the higher latitudes over the top of the PNA ridge into Greenland, we have to carefully watch any threat. The first comes around 120hrs...the models are currently too far seaward but are showing a strong signal for a buckling trough. If that tightens up or comes west we are looking at a huge east coast snowstorm potential. If it doesn't happen with that system we are going to have a multitude of chances beyond that. It doesn't get much more exciting and active than this. The Euro nearly gives us a KU from this wave at 150 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro nearly gives us a KU from this wave at 150 hours. Yup, slightly more amplification with that trough and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 March 1993 hugged the coast. Had it been even 50-75 miles further east, there would have been 24"+ in all of the major cities. Your right. I thought it took a track noticably further west up the apps. I dont know a triple phaser would be nice off the coast but the odds of that happening even in a story book type pattern are rare. 93' was the last true notable one. I know yank just read a model WAY out but we wont know for sure till we get to february 1st what beast were staring down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Your right. I thought it took a track noticably further west up the apps. I dont know a triple phaser would be nice off the coast but the odds of that happening even in a story book type pattern are rare. 93' was the last true notable one. I know yank just read a model WAY out but we wont know for sure till we get to february 1st what beast were staring down Well, if we do get a '93 redux, sferic will definitely get his wish as DeBlasio would surely close NYC public schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro nearly gives us a KU from this wave at 150 hours. I saw the piece this AM and said , that kinda looks compressed to me , The thought process was the NW flow was easterly enough , and I bit on the SB . ( which I still like ) But the 12z GFS was close as is the Euro , HM loved this period from 10 days ago . Just need a slight retrogression of the trough west and the window opens up again on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro looks really good for the Super Bowl weekend storm. Looks like it may be a WAA event transferring to a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I saw the piece this AM and said , that kinda looks compressed to me , The thought process was the NW was easterly enough , and I bit on the SB . ( which I still like ) But the 12z GFS was close as is the Euro , HM loved this period from 10 days ago . Just need a slight retrogression on the trough west and the window opens up again on the EC The Euro was way better aloft and at the surface than the GFS...totally different looking set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro was way better aloft and at the surface than the GFS...totally different looking set up. So is that the period to focus on, or is there anything before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro nearly gives us a KU from this wave at 150 hours. taken literally is it still a complete miss or does it graze us with any precip? im goin to be in nj next week and really hoping to see some snow. been several years since Ive seen it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 taken literally is it still a complete miss or does it graze us with any precip? im goin to be in nj next week and really hoping to see some snow. been several years since Ive seen it It's a graze verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro hints at the possibility of another system coming right on the heels of the Super Bowl weekend storm. That would be a nightmare situation for the Super Bowl. The GFS also has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Beez, Good to see you back!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's a graze verbatim. thanks. seems like our best storms have come from seemingly glancing blows in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro was way better aloft and at the surface than the GFS...totally different looking set up. 500 MB vorticity is way better on the Euro ( much tighter ) is way better at 144 vs GFS 150 , the surface looked the same to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Beez, Good to see you back!! Rossi Beez, Good to see you back!! Rossi thanks! have really missed all the chatter and excitement on this forum since I moved to the southeast. im back in my hometown of Monmouth cty nj from tomorrow till feb 2. its lookin like I picked a pretty good time to head up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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