January Forecast Discussion

[PB GFI]

I doubt its 10 below at KNYC but holy cow 

[forkyfork]

as our KU pulls away

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=38&lon=-69&info=vis&zoom=2&map=None&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&numframes=20

[Metsfan]

as our KU pulls away

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=38&lon=-69&info=vis&zoom=2&map=None&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&numframes=20

Impressive. Nova Scotia looks to get crushed.

[green tube]

I doubt its 10 below at KNYC but holy cow 

 

 

bastardi: early next week likely to out do cold this week because of source region.

[EasternLI]

To me, it looks like the pattern just keeps reloading right to the end of the 12z gefs

[NEXtreme]

I doubt its 10 below at KNYC but holy cow 

lets remember theres a solid snow cover this go around and its not going anywhere for a long time, which is gonna play a huge roll on these bitter arctic shots.

 

[WE GOT HIM]

The cold has a nice highway to travel on

[mgerb]

Gotta root a SB snowstorm on 

 

As fun as that would be to watch, I'm pulling against it. Otherwise, those buttheads at the Farmers Almanac will be able to claim they had it right months in advance when it was really a pure stroke of luck. 

[TWCCraig]

As fun as that would be to watch, I'm pulling against it. Otherwise, those buttheads at the Farmers Almanac will be able to claim they had it right months in advance when it was really a pure stroke of luck. 

 

This. I know so many people that think there's going to be a blizzard around the SB. If there isn't, it'll give mets a bad name. People are so gullible.

[IsentropicLift]

18z GFS still showing super bowl weekend storm, also the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has a low just south of the benchmark valid Saturday morning January 31'st. Obviously giving this extra attention due to the implications.

[PB GFI]

How great would it be if they had to move it

And be forced to have it as superbowl Monday

Only 10 days out now. Will get a clear pic ths week. It's no longer in the really LR

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

How great would it be if they had to move it

And be forced to have it as superbowl Monday

Only 10 days out now. Will get a clear pic ths week. It's no longer in the really LR

They've said they would not move it back, but up to Friday or Saturday.

[Stormlover74]

They've said they would not move it back, but up to Friday or Saturday.

So on Thursday if the forecast is for snow on Sunday they move it up to Friday? Lol..talk about logistical nightmare and not only that but what if the models flip and the storm doesn't happen?

[REDMK6GLI]

How great would it be if they had to move it

And be forced to have it as superbowl Monday

Only 10 days out now. Will get a clear pic ths week. It's no longer in the really LR

After this recent model snafu anything outside of 72 hours is really LR. John hit the nail on the head, this pattern is full of pertubations and poor sampling areas where these SW in canada are coming from. We will get a high end KU by surprise before this pattern is over. That is my bold, JB style call not knocking JB and his enthusiasm for weather as well

[pazzo83]

How great would it be if they had to move it

And be forced to have it as superbowl Monday

Only 10 days out now. Will get a clear pic ths week. It's no longer in the really LR

 

THAT WOULD BE HILARIOUS.

 

Guys, we HAVE to have a storm on Superbowl Sunday.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

They've said they would not move it back, but up to Friday or Saturday.

No it's definitely Monday.   

[PB GFI]

No it's definitely Monday.

Yes. That's the alternate date

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

No it would not be Monday. Mike Francesca had Eric Grubman from the NFL on today (he's in charge of coordination of the Super Bowl) and he said they would not move the game back. They would look to move it forward. Yes, as difficult as it seems, he said they have coordinated a 48 hour lead time window to decide whether to move it up. If snow is predicted on Saturday they will be ok for Sunda. But in the worst case scenario where heavy snow seems like a very likely bet in a period from early Sunday through the end of the game they would make the decision to move the game up to Saturday. If there were a huge snowstorm forecasted for Saturday into Sunday they would move it up to either Friday evening (very unlikely he said) or earlier in the day Saturday. You can listen to the audio on wfan.com.

[PB GFI]

No it would not be Monday. Mike Francesca had Eric Grubman from the NFL on today (he's in charge of coordination of the Super Bowl) and he said they would not move the game back. They would look to move it forward. Yes, as difficult as it seems, he said they have coordinated a 48 hour lead time window to decide whether to move it up. If snow is predicted on Saturday they will be ok for Sunda. But in the worst case scenario where heavy snow seems like a very likely bet in a period from early Sunday through the end of the game they would make the decision to move the game up to Saturday. If there were a huge snowstorm forecasted for Saturday into Sunday they would move it up to either Friday evening (very unlikely he said) or earlier in the day Saturday. You can listen to the audio on wfan.com.

Reading the star leger. It ran today as well. U can read it the NFL asked Evan Meyers from accu wx his assertion was it's a fri to Sun possibility and to move it back.

Also heard Lonnie quin on Mike today. Must of peeked at the euro.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

No it would not be Monday. Mike Francesca had Eric Grubman from the NFL on today (he's in charge of coordination of the Super Bowl) and he said they would not move the game back. They would look to move it forward. Yes, as difficult as it seems, he said they have coordinated a 48 hour lead time window to decide whether to move it up. If snow is predicted on Saturday they will be ok for Sunda. But in the worst case scenario where heavy snow seems like a very likely bet in a period from early Sunday through the end of the game they would make the decision to move the game up to Saturday. If there were a huge snowstorm forecasted for Saturday into Sunday they would move it up to either Friday evening (very unlikely he said) or earlier in the day Saturday. You can listen to the audio on wfan.com.

Interesting, they must have just changed their plans then. I'll get back to you on this.  

[PB GFI]

The story in the upcoming 7 day period is the COLD , It does Snow Sat , and most places will pick up 1 to 2 inches ,

But KNYC will have its coldest  nite of the year in the Tues thru Thrs AM  time frame . This means most places just outside the City

could  have 3 straight nites of below 0 readings .

We  lose the midweek storm for next week, I do  think the cold  press is too far East so  

this time there will  little room  for amplification in the Atlantic close enough to effect us   .

The GFS and the Euro Control run want nothing to do the with SB storm , but I think that's too early to jump off that bandwagon.

Big storms love to form behind retreating troughs , The Euro OP still shows in , but its D 10 , so it should probably  lose that look soon  

if this winters modeling is any indicator .

But I think it will start to show up again  its the midrange , and I like a storm in that  timeframe

Again , the big story is the Cold . The 2 week period that was talked about is here .  Maybe we can pull off  bookend snows with the  COLD in between  .

 

[PB GFI]

And finally , Don't get me wrong , this 10 day period isn't the end , Look familiar ?   As long as you keep that height field connected

You keep the Arctic connection in place ,  This trough will be deeper as we get closer , so I really don't see the light thru Feb 15 , and there is CFSV2 support for that , , Don't know what the 30 day average will be from jan 21 thru feb 20 , but these kind of  departures don't typically happen for this long here .

[bluewave]

And finally , Don't get me wrong , this 10 day period isn't the end , Look familiar ?   As long as you keep that height field connected

You keep the Arctic connection in place ,  This trough will be deeper as we get closer , so I really don't see the light thru Feb 15 , and there is CFSV2 support for that , , Don't know what the 30 day average will be from jan 21 thru feb 20 , but these kind of  departures don't typically happen for this long here .

 

The MJO spending a little longer in 7on Euro  will extend this cold period into early February with maybe the snow threat getting

pushed a few days further out. Notice how the models keep pumping the EPO ridge stronger as they

get closer. This would give February the chance of falling on the cold side of the gradient different

from December should the future 8-14 stay colder. What we have been seeing from that NEPAC ridge

has literally been off the charts. California is in a real pinch with these severe drought conditions

during their traditional rainy season.

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2014/0121/California-drought-Scientists-puzzled-by-persistence-of-blocking-ridge-video

 

 

The unseasonal balmy but dry weather is the result of an equally unprecedented high pressure ridge lurking offshore and blocking the typical winter storms needed to drop precipitation all along the West Coast.

This ridge has persisted for 13 months and the longer it lingers, the less likely it is to leave, points out climatologist Brian Fuchs, from the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska. This high pressure ridge system is feeding on itself, “creating a sort of perfect environment for perpetuating the dry conditions” it creates, he says.

High-pressure systems are not uncommon, but it is abnormal for them to hang around uninterrupted for so long. “This makes it even harder as winter storms approach for them to break through and change that pattern,” he adds.

 

New run more time in 7

 

 

Old run quicker 7 exit

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

The MJO spending a little longer in 7on Euro  will extend this cold period into early February with maybe the snow threat getting

pushed a few days further out. Notice how the models keep pumping the EPO ridge stronger as they

get closer. This would give February the chance of falling on the cold side of the gradient different

from December should the future 8-14 stay colder. What we have been seeing from that NEPAC ridge

has literally been off the charts. California is in a real pinch with these severe drought conditions

during their traditional rainy season.

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2014/0121/California-drought-Scientists-puzzled-by-persistence-of-blocking-ridge-video

 

 

The unseasonal balmy but dry weather is the result of an equally unprecedented high pressure ridge lurking offshore and blocking the typical winter storms needed to drop precipitation all along the West Coast.

This ridge has persisted for 13 months and the longer it lingers, the less likely it is to leave, points out climatologist Brian Fuchs, from the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska. This high pressure ridge system is feeding on itself, “creating a sort of perfect environment for perpetuating the dry conditions” it creates, he says.

High-pressure systems are not uncommon, but it is abnormal for them to hang around uninterrupted for so long. “This makes it even harder as winter storms approach for them to break through and change that pattern,” he adds.

 

New run more time in 7

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

Old run quicker 7 exit

 

OLD.gif

I agree I  buy the colder side of December . The above D15  would be my Amarillo to AC ( 1994 ) set up .

But I think the press is deeper . I think you could see  multiple waves ride the barroclinic zone after Day 10 .

When its all said and done , this may be on the of the better  20 - 30 day periods ( I cant believe im saying 30  )

that this area has seen in a while  .

[earthlight]

With above normal heights now building into the higher latitudes over the top of the PNA ridge into Greenland, we have to carefully watch any threat. The first comes around 120hrs...the models are currently too far seaward but are showing a strong signal for a buckling trough. If that tightens up or comes west we are looking at a huge east coast snowstorm potential.

If it doesn't happen with that system we are going to have a multitude of chances beyond that.

It doesn't get much more exciting and active than this.

[bluewave]

I agree I  buy the colder side of December . The above D15  would be my Amarillo to AC ( 1994 ) set up .

But I think the press is deeper . I think you could see  multiple waves ride the barroclinic zone after Day 10 .

When its all said and done , this may be on the of the better  20 - 30 day periods ( I cant believe im saying 30  )

that this area has seen in a while  .

 

The GFS moved with the Euro over the last few runs with more cross polar beginning to show up

around day 10 than before. I agree  that the snow threats will remain as the cold isn't going anywhere 

fast.

[IsentropicLift]

At least two of the 00z GFS ensemble members blew up the clipper offshore for next Monday. One member had a miller B, miller A hybrid with a MECS at hr 156 with a few close misses on other members. Furthermore the spread in the day 10 range is huge regarding the SB threat. Not two members are handling the energy the same. I would exercise extreme caution before declaring a "threat" dead in the medium and or long range. Last Mondays system should stand as a prime of example.

[beez]

With above normal heights now building into the higher latitudes over the top of the PNA ridge into Greenland, we have to carefully watch any threat. The first comes around 120hrs...the models are currently too far seaward but are showing a strong signal for a buckling trough. If that tightens up or comes west we are looking at a huge east coast snowstorm potential.

If it doesn't happen with that system we are going to have a multitude of chances beyond that.

It doesn't get much more exciting and active than this.

 

    Im also hopeful. im goin to be in nj from tomorrow till feb 2. really hoping to see some snow. haven't seen it in years

[REDMK6GLI]

At least two of the 00z GFS ensemble members blew up the clipper offshore for next Monday. One member had a miller B, miller A hybrid with a MECS at hr 156 with a few close misses on other members. Furthermore the spread in the day 10 range is huge regarding the SB threat. Not two members are handling the energy the same. I would exercise extreme caution before declaring a "threat" dead in the medium and or long range. Last Mondays system should stand as a prime of example.

Coupled with what earthlight just stated regarding the pattern 120hrs onward, the storm threats cannot be dismissed as tuesday storm was a prime example of that. WAY too many variables in the overall flow that the models are going to struggle with and continue to do so. Its not a matter of if but when we get that MECS/HECS in my opinion

[IsentropicLift]

That closed low modeled to be rotating around the PV up in central Canada late next week looks suspect to me. It's keeping a tremendous amount of energy bottled up and if that depiction is wrong, it would make a large difference. The 00z ECMWF drives that energy south into the lakes and we get more interaction between the northern and southern streams as a result.