JSantanaNYC Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Maybe because of their colors.. he thinks. Orange = warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It looks like a SE ridge to me is pumping up higher-than-normal 500 hPa heights which is why we are in the yellow/orange. I'm confused by the map. Sorry I fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 No that's cold. 3 things here , One all those higher connected Heights from the PAC thru Alaska and over the Pole will mean you`re source region is arctic , not Polar . So its low level cold air 2 That's at 500 MB , at 2 Meters where we live the cold air will drain to the bottom of the trough and is cold 3 . The Euro drags its heels in the West , so that trough will be further East As it is that SE RIDGE will offer resistance so we can get system that roll W to E along the baroclinic zone And in 1994 that was a great pattern . Thanks for the detailed explanation. So, it looks like we retain the -AO and -EPO according to that map. That's a very encouraging sign. Hopefully, we don't warm up above freezing when the gradient pattern commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Thanks for the detailed explanation. So, it looks like we retain the -AO and -EPO according to that map. That's a very encouraging sign. Hopefully, we don't warm up above freezing when the gradient pattern commences. Next week is cold , and if the trough pulls back next weekend , its back in the east inside 2 days . As long as keep that height field connected ,you in essence trap the PV and Canada never loses the cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Feb 5 - 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z gefs hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is sat nite into sun , this SW should be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is sat nite into sun , this SW should be watched This winter is quickly moving up my list of favorite winters, awesome period we have here. We're not done, think we get at the very least another light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This winter is quickly moving up my list of favorite winters, awesome period we have here. We're not done, think we get at the very least another light event Seasonal averages have mostly been reached or surpassed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z gefs hr 132 Great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Seasonal averages have mostly been reached or surpassed already. Most of us in the NW burbs are at 60-70% of norm now.. Not bad considering we have been fringed this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Colts neck season average is close to 27 , this storm got me to 35 ... I said earlier think we have a good shot at a 50 spot this year . Couple SW on the models the next 10 days and one of them could turn the corner . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Here in Monmouth county we are at around 36". A good 150% of average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wow you guys down in C NJ are having a great season for your area! And the season is still fairly young. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is sat nite into sun , this SW should be watched Did the new GFS show anything on the potential system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 the monday storm has a similar look to the way the current storm looked at that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 the monday storm has a similar look to the way the current storm looked at that time frame This vort looks nice on wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 This vort looks nice on wed Man, i cannot see how we dont get atleast one more moderate to even major snowstorm this winter. Like paul said this season it just wants to snow just a matter of when and today/yesterday snook up on us big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 With 10 inches tonight from this storm, I now have 27 inches of snow on the season. Pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 0z GFS is insane with snow opportunities and cold. We have a weak clipper Saturday with WAA snows...Sunday night may be below 0F even in NYC with 850s of -25C. Another clipper/miller B deal Monday with a swath of heavy snow. Then the cold returns and a big storm looms around Super Bowl. Long range has a weak warm up and then a major arctic blast nationwide with a 1056mb high coming up of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 6z GFS has 15-24" of snow over the next 10 days. An inch or two from the Saturday clipper 4-8" from the Monday coastal 10-15" from the 1/31 coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 No that's cold. 3 things here , One all those higher connected Heights from the PAC thru Alaska and over the Pole will mean you`re source region is arctic , not Polar . So its low level cold air 2 That's at 500 MB , at 2 Meters where we live the cold air will drain to the bottom of the trough and is cold 3 . The Euro drags its heels in the West , so that trough will be further East As it is that SE RIDGE will offer resistance so we can get system that roll W to E along the baroclinic zone And in 1994 that was a great pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 That's the Day 14 , see how the trough is furthest east , than yesterdays day 15 I posted , another few runs and this shot on the maps will be really cold , Day 15 on the 0z ensembles are cold , we are not out of this through Feb 6 , GFS feb 5 - 15 below normal , this is goin to rival the greatest cold outbreaks we have had . Both in ferocity and longevity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 And finally this is a storm HM picked out here over a week ago , This is for Next Thrs . The next frame is even better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Before we get ahead of ourselves for next week , this is for Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The weeklies are in pretty good agreement with JMA. Both of those pieces of guidance beat the GEFS in predicting cold this week while the GEFS was warm back on 9th. The record breaking Pacific block that got started in 2013 retrogrades a little back to Alaska keeping the -EPO while the PNA falls back to negative territory. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/ecmwf-weekly-maps-16/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The weeklies are in pretty good agreement with JMA. Both of those pieces of guidance beat the GEFS in predicting cold this week while the GEFS was warm back on 9th. The record breaking Pacific block that got started in 2013 retrogrades a little back to Alaska keeping the -EPO while the PNA falls back to negative territory. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/ecmwf-weekly-maps-16/ Now if it look at the 2 temps that cold all those connected high heights over the top is Dec like. Week 3 and 4 on euro ths yr has been bad this year Only reason I buy the gradient pattern us because it agrees w the Jma Which has been great. Think the trough is too far west week 3 and 4 anyway .or did that in Dec w the same Pos height anomalies in Dec So beware cold the u th 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Now if it look at the 2 temps that cold all those connected high heights over the top is Dec like. Week 3 and 4 on euro ths yr has been bad this year Only reason I buy the gradient pattern us because it agrees w the Jma Which has been great. Think the trough is too far west week 3 and 4 anyway .or did that in Dec w the same Pos height anomalies in Dec So beware cold the u th 15th The Euro weeklies and ensembles have been good through week two on the 500 mb anomaly center placement and areas of above and below. I agree that past week two its effectiveness declines and the JMA has been doing great for the monthly and seasonal range. The JMA was all over the eastern trough in January since at least November 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Im making a bold call that this pattern just begs to produce something downright historic from DC-BOSTON. PB GFI couldnt of been more correct when he said it wants to snow. Prime example was yesterday as the pattern overall argued against yesterdays storm. Im firmly believing that super bowl week or super bowl weekend we may be staring down the gut of a beast of an east coast LP system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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