bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Love ACE , he gave his reasoning , it was sound , could have easily broke his . Models caught this in 36 hours , no one was on this a week ago . The impressive part of this is how many lucky breaks we have been getting in recent years even when Atlantic blocking has been transient. The October 2011 snowstorm and the early January this year were just two examples of a quick cash in during a break a wall to wall raging +AO pattern. Tuesdays event is all about exploiting the high rations on the edge of the Arctic boundary without the benefit of a Davis Strait block in a progressive pattern. Recent years are a big departure from growing up in the 80's to early 90's when we had so many fewer memorable events. Many people on here can remember all the disappointments with storms than never panned out. You knew it was game over in those days when the forecast was a warning level snow event only to see the moon shining through a thin overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The impressive part of this is how many lucky breaks we have been getting in recent years even when Atlantic blocking has been transient. October 2011 late snowstorm and the early January this year were just two examples of a quick cash in a wall to wall raging +AO pattern. Tomorrows event is all about exploiting the high rations on the edge of the Arctic boundary without the benefit of a Davis Strait block in a progressive pattern. Recent years are a big departure from growing up in the 80's to early 90's when we had so many fewer memorable events. Many people on here can remember all the disappointments with storms than never panned out. You knew it was game over in those days when the forecast was a warning level snow event only to see the moon shining through a thin overcast. I cant tell you how many times as a kid ,I would listen to KWO 35 162.55 MHz lol rings like a bell . And listen as stuff would just evaporate as the week went on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I cant tell you how many times as a kid ,I would listen to KWO 35 162.55 MHz lol rings like a bell . And listen as stuff would just evaporate as the week went on . This January is very rare to feature two 6-12" Arctic boundary events. We even missed out during the frigid January 1994 when the Arctic wave blasted Eastern PA. and we got rain and 40 degrees right before dropping below zero. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0118.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This January is very rare to feature two 6-12" Arctic boundary events. We even missed out during the frigid January 1994 when the Arctic wave blasted Eastern PA. and we got rain and 40 degrees right before dropping below zero. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0118.php this storm could end up giving us as much snow as the late January 1994 clipper with 4-5" of snow and zero temperatures right after...it probably won't get that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18z has a nice system next Monday night that will need to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18z has a nice system next Monday night that will need to be watched closely.[/quoteHow about this Thursday? Probably just artic front light snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18z has a nice system next Monday night that will need to be watched closely.[/quoteHow about this Thursday? Probably just artic front light snow?? Doubt there is any evidence of the actual outcome until 24hrs out with this pattern, going to be a fun little stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Doubt there is any evidence of the actual outcome until 24hrs out with this pattern, going to be a fun little stretch It beats tracking a system for 7+ days only to end in complete disappointment. These storms that pop up in closer range are a lot more fun to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 D 7 , Nice 1036 ,coming , just in time for SB week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SB storm , still there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's the pattern we go to right after the SB , High heights from the PAC thru Alaska up to the pole and now into Greenland , Nice SE Ridge to offer resistance so storms don't get shunted and the trough into the CONUS. So you break the jet under , you block storms from cutting and theres nothing but low level arctic air being drawn into the bottom of the trough . SO LIKE 1994 the old Amarillo to AC express could begin . Expect that trough to deeper , this is a mean at 15 days . SB week is cold , just not brutal , there are 2 systems next week as well as a SB system still on the maps . Today is not 1 and done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 1st one HM picked out a week ago , the 2nd the SB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 1st one HM picked out a week ago , the 2nd the SB . Looks like now its Friday into Sunday but tapering down by kickoff..but still would be a massive headache from a travel standpoint and another arctic blast right behind it would mean teens for the game. Lots can change but I'm amazed at the run to run consistency for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like now its Friday into Sunday but tapering down by kickoff..but still would be a massive headache from a travel standpoint and another arctic blast right behind it would mean teens for the game. Lots can change but I'm amazed at the run to run consistency for this Today its a solid 10 to 15 , another weaker wave this Sat , but plenty of cold through the 5th , prob get a day or 2 of above as the trough reloads , but it comes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Game time, going to be rip city Incoming...RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Game time, going to be rip city Incoming...RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2014 Wow! Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The radar looks tasty already batten down the hatches.She is edging into north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's the pattern we go to right after the SB , High heights from the PAC thru Alaska up to the pole and now into Greenland , Nice SE Ridge to offer resistance so storms don't get shunted and the trough into the CONUS. So you break the jet under , you block storms from cutting and theres nothing but low level arctic air being drawn into the bottom of the trough . SO LIKE 1994 the old Amarillo to AC express could begin . Expect that trough to deeper , this is a mean at 15 days . SB week is cold , just not brutal , there are 2 systems next week as well as a SB system still on the maps . Today is not 1 and done . I like how the JMA and Euro week 2 forecasts saw the big ridge over western NOAM and potential for cold here over the next week from January 9th. Euro 1-9-14 run http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/500za_week2_bg_na2.png JMA Weekly 1-9-14 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I like how the JMA and Euro week 2 forecasts saw the big ridge over western NOAM and potential for cold here over the next week from January 9th. Euro 1-9-14 run http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/500za_week2_bg_na2.png JMA Weekly 1-9-14 run Y201401.D0912.png It really is one of the better long term active patterns we have seen around here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It really is one of the better long term active patterns we have seen around here . 2 high ratio Arctic boundary events where a part of the region sees 12" or more inches of snow and the temps dip to under 10 following the storm in one month is rare. Add to the mix the convective events where we saw lightning one week and lightning, hail, sleet, snow, and rain the following week and you have a very impressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z GFS is still showing the snow event for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 2 high ratio Arctic boundary events where a part of the region sees 12" or more inches of snow and the temps dip to under 10 following the storm in one month is rare. Add to the mix the convective events where we saw lightning one week and lightning, hail, sleet, snow, and rain the following week and you have a very impressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Make it 3 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z GFS is still showing the snow event for Monday. The event for next Monday looks very similar to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Brings in snow the Friday before the super bowl now but kick off temperature would be somewhere around 9 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Brings in snow the Friday before the super bowl now but kick off temperature would be somewhere around 9 above. Its cold and snowy thru Feb 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its cold and snowy thru Feb 6 Pretty damn epic, maybe one or two days barely above freezing since we always tend to moderate more than the models show in between shots of arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Pretty damn epic, maybe one or two days barely above freezing since we always tend to moderate more than the models show in between shots of arctic air It's been a while since we have seen a week to ten day period this cold here. 10 day mean temperature anomaly View the forecast of the normalised mean temperature anomaly for the next 10 days. The forecast starts at 00Z of the day indicated in the figure. The anomaly is with respect to the climatological mean temperature. The forecast was obtained by applying a regression equation to the ensemble mean 1000-500 hPa thickness. The contours are 0.43 multiples of the standard deviation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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